It’s that time of year. College football teams are realizing that it wasn’t a tough early schedule or needing a little extra time to gel. They’re just not as good as they expected to be. Why are they falling short of expectations? The person who almost always gets the blame is one of the guys wearing the headset on the sidelines or up in the box—a head coach or a coordinator.
So far this November, no team has pulled the trigger on a head coach firing … yet. However, two high-profile coordinator changes came down this week. Iowa parted ways with offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz, and USC fired defensive coordinator Alex Grinch. The pair are likely the first two dominos to fall in a much longer sequence that will last into the offseason.
Being on top of these changes can be vital when betting at the top NCAAF sportsbooks during the bowl season.
Throwing the Towel
Obviously, a midseason firing of a coach or a coordinator is basically a signal that the team is forfeiting that particular season. In almost every midseason case, a coach isn’t fired so the team can bring in his long-term replacement. Instead, someone already on the staff is elevated to the position on an interim basis, and then a search is done after the season. Obviously, the players remain the same, so there isn’t much in terms of scheme or personnel changes that the interim boss can put in. The midseason move is done to get a head start on the coaching search, more than to improve the product on the field in upcoming games.
So, what does that mean for gamblers? Do teams typically get even worse after their coach is fired? Or is there some type of improvement just because things get shaken up by the major change?
Recent Sample
We took a look at last year when a total of eight head coaches were fired during the season. Nebraska, Colorado, Georgia Tech, Arizona State, Wisconsin, Auburn, Charlotte and South Florida all cut ties during the year.
Five of the eight were fired before the season was half over—a period that we got through this year with no schools making a move. The latter three—Auburn, Charlotte and South Florida, made their moves about now, with a month or so to go in the regular season.
The coaches had a combined 10-35 record in 2022 when they were fired, that’s a .222 winning percentage. The three fired late in the year were slightly worse, at 5-20, .200.
In each case, an interim coach took over, and, in general, seeing their coach get the ax seemed to be a motivating factor for the team. The teams split their first game under the new coach, going 4-4, for a .500 record in week one, post change. In the first two weeks under an interim coach, they went 7-9, .438, and in their first three games, the new coaches went 10-14, .417. At four weeks, the new coaches had a combined record of 13-19, .406. Over the rest of the season, the coaches went 18-33, .353.
What Does All That Mean?
Teams seemed to have an immediate improvement after a coaching change, and then, week by week, that boost in performance gradually wore off, although the interim coaches still finished with a better mark than the permanent guys they replaced.
Part of it could be a psychological boost from the change, but it’s also possible that the program timed its coaching change well. Often, when a pro or college team makes a change at quarterback, they’ll announce the move right before a soft spot in the schedule, to give the new guy a chance to have a couple of successes right out of the gate (and to prevent the guy they want to replace from saving his job by padding his stats against bad teams). Do college teams do the same sort of schedule analysis when planning a coaching change?
The short answer is no. First of all, the easiest way to give a new coach the best chance to succeed is to make the move right before the bye week. Only one of the eight teams—Colorado—fired their coach at the start of the bye week. The opponents the week after a coaching change had almost exactly the same 2022 regular season record as the week before the move was made. The fired coach’s last foes were a combined 51-51. The new coach’s first opponent was 51-52. Arizona State made the move right before playing Utah (10-4 in 2022). Nebraska made the move right before Oklahoma week. And half the teams made the change before playing on the road, where it’s presumably harder to win.
So what does that mean for Iowa, USC and whoever has that awkward post-loss meeting with the athletic director in future weeks? Look for the interim coach to cover in week one, and maybe week two. Then move on to the next team getting ready to swing the ax.
