Let’s talk about the impact of pitcher-friendly ballparks on player props. Are there any props you should avoid when betting at the top MLB sportsbooks?
As an Over-backer, I love betting on games with hitter-friendly ballparks and great weather.
I’m typically looking for hot temperatures with the wind blowing directly towards the outfield by at least ten mph. Those are hitter-friendly conditions.
However, every ballpark isn’t created equal. That’s the beauty of baseball. In basketball, whether you’re home or away, you will play with the same dimensions in a closed arena.
In hockey, it’s the same thing. Even in football, while playing outside, the football field is the same width and length in every stadium and game.
That’s not the case in baseball. Each MLB stadium is unique, with different dimensions for every ballpark. That’s what makes baseball so exciting.
So while there are plenty of hitter-friendly stadiums, there are also plenty of pitcher-friendly stadiums.
Let’s talk about pitcher-friendly ballparks’ impact on player props in the MLB.
Pitcher Props
- 1 Total Outs Props
If a starting pitcher gets to pitch in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, their mistakes will likely not be as bad as if they were in a hitter-friendly ballpark.
A pitcher can allow a high fly ball to deep center field. But if the dimensions are far enough, that long fly ball will be recorded as an out. Meanwhile, that same fly ball could’ve been a home run in another ballpark.
Escaping damage is the name of the game in the MLB. That fly ball would help a starting pitcher stay in the game longer with little blemishes.
Therefore, you can back a pitcher to earn more total outs in a game, knowing the pitcher won’t get smacked around as much.
- 2 Stirkeout Props
Meanwhile, the same can be said about strikeouts. If a pitcher is getting outs in a pitcher’s ballpark that aren’t always outs in other ballparks, they’ll likely stay in the game longer.
More at-bats give the starter more potential to earn strikeouts.
- 3 Earned Runs Props
Finally, it’s also likely that a pitcher will escape damage. While some ballparks are huge, fielders in today’s game are extremely quick, fast, and able to get to balls that most players typically couldn’t get to even a decade ago.
This helps keep a pitcher’s earned runs down. In a pitcher’s ballpark, you will want to consider taking the Under in earned runs for a pitcher that matches up well against the opposing lineup.
Hitter Props
- 1 Total Bases Props
On the other hand, hitters get affected by these types of ballparks. Their OPS will plummet, and the home runs will drop off significantly.
But pay attention to each ballpark before making a bet.
Some pitcher-friendly ballparks are worse for home runs but better for doubles. Some ballparks are better for singles because fielders play so far back not to allow extra base hits.
So while these ballparks will hurt a batter, every ballpark has different dimensions. Each skill set plays differently in each ballpark.
- 2 Home Run Props
Usually, when we’re talking about pitcher-friendly ballparks, we’re talking about how a ballpark doesn’t allow many home runs.
Betting on home runs in pitcher-friendly ballparks likely isn’t the smartest decision. Everything else between the pitcher and hitter needs to match up for me to decide to back a home run prop in a ballpark that doesn’t yield a high rate of home runs.
There are offshore sportsbooks that will allow you to bet “No” on home run props. That’s something you can look into. -400 odds for a “No” prop isn’t always ideal, but you can also potentially parlay a few “No” home run props from different games to get your odds to about even or better.
- 3 Stolen Bases Props
Another option you can look into is stolen base props. Maybe a pitcher-friendly ballpark doesn’t allow home runs but allows a lot of extra-base hits because it’s a super long and wide ballpark.
Or the ballpark just gives up a lot of singles.
If you believe that the game could be close, a player could get on base and decide to steal second base to get into scoring position. You can consider stolen base props in this instance, which have a lot of value.
You can look into the pitcher’s delivery and players’ success rate against a certain pitcher. If you suspect that the game will be close, you can find the player with the highest potential to earn a base hit and take them to earn a stolen base.
That’s the difference between winning and losing baseball for a team.
