“Throw out the records when two rivals meet.”
It’s an announcing cliché as old as the bell, axe or bowl that the two neighboring teams play for. A team may have a down year, but all it takes is a win over their arch-rival to turn around fan perception of how the season has gone. On the other hand, it doesn’t matter how many directional schools and mid-level bowl games you win, if you can’t beat THOSE GUYS, you’re not going to stick around at State U.
As we head down the stretch, we’ve reached the November rivalry game portion of the schedule.
Rivalry games are a different animal when betting at the top NCAAF sportsbooks, because of several factors. Rivals typically know each other better than anyone else, so the game is well-scouted. A UNC-Duke football game in 2019 ended because UNC’s defensive coordinator recognized the goal line play Duke was lining up to run—from a game against Army several years earlier. The Tar Heels got the game-clinching interception.
There’s also the urgency of the game.
Tobacco Road
“Carolina-Duke is bigger than anything else,” said UNC coach Mack Brown. “The rivalry game this week is bigger than what happens at the end of the year, with the postseason … any of that stuff. This is a fun game that’s been played for so long, that’s important to both schools. So I would say this game overrides everything else.”
And there’s the emotion that pushes players in the game to new levels. That nagging injury that’s kept a star player out against other teams? Forgotten at game time.
“In a game like this one, most guys play if there’s any way they could possibly play,” Brown said.
The plays are bigger, the cheers louder, the hits harder.
So what does that mean for a gambler trying to wade into Carolina-Duke, or Alabama-Auburn, Michigan-Ohio State, or any number of other rivalry games coming up on the football calendar?
Bet the Heartbreak
An underdog team can turn around their season with a win over their rival. That pattern shows up on the field … almost. Expect the favorite to get a scare but hold on at the end to fend off their determined little brother. Favored teams in rivalry games have a winning percentage of about 76% during games against their arch rival. But their percentage drops to about 52% against the spread.
Over the last 16 Ohio State-Michigan games, for example, the spread had the favorite giving an average of 8.6 points, and the favorite won by an average of 5.8. The favorite was 13-3 straight up and just 7-9 ATS.
So, if you’re betting moneyline on a rivalry game, take the favorite, but if you’re looking at point spreads, take the dog and the points.
Bet the Hero
Legends are made during rivalry games. When a team find something that works against their rival, they go back to it, over and over and over again.
Looking at the Michigan-Ohio State rivalry, Tshimanga Biakabutuka rushed for 313 yards in one Wolverines win. Denard Robinson threw for 167 yards, ran for 170 and was responsible for all five of his team’s touchdowns. Beanie Wells ran for 222. David Boston caught 10 balls for 217 yards.
So pick out the running back, receiver or passer you think will shine for the rival you expect to come out on top and take a chance on an individual prop bet.
Bet the Intangibles
Brown says that nothing is more important than the rivalry game, but not all of his players might agree. There are plenty of other factors that can influence an outcome. Is it homecoming? Is it Senior Day, since many rivalry games come in the regular season finale?
Either of those can add a bit more emotion on top of an already volatile situation, meaning that turnover or penalty-prone teams could struggle even more, while teams that sometimes play below expectations may get that extra boost. Also, as the season comes down the stretch, are either teams close to the six-win bowl threshold, where a win could get them in or a loss could keep them out?
Then there’s the prospect of your rival celebrating on your turf. The last thing a favorite wants to see when they have the chance to clinch a league title is their rival on the other side of the field, ready to ruin their party.
