Roughly one month ahead of Selection Sunday, the NCAA will release an in-season top 16 for March Madness. Based on the history of previous top 16 reveals, this year’s list can’t help but have a major impact on college basketball futures odds for the 2025 NCAA Championship.
That history goes back to 2017 when the in-season top 16 was first released, and in the seven years since – not counting 2020 due to the cancellation of the NCAA Tournament – only 18 of the 112 teams that made it failed to receive a No. 4 seed or higher when invites went out.
Only once has a team not made the in-season top 16 and ended up cutting down the nets at the dance, and that was 2023 when UConn was ranked No. 21 at the time of the in-season release, and entered the NCAA Tournament eventually as a No. 4 seed.
Auburn, Alabama & Duke in Top 4
Auburn was sitting No. 1 in both polls this past weekend when the Tigers were felled by Florida to end a 14-game win streak. Despite the loss, Bruce Pearl’s cagers remained on the top line of the AP and will be part of the top 4 when the in-season top 16 is released.
Alabama replaced Auburn atop the coaches poll, and should give the SEC a second team in the top 4. Duke also dropped a game this past weekend, but the Blue Devils will remain part of the upper foursome.
The question is which team will complete the top quartet. Tennessee and Florida are in the mix and would give the SEC holds on three of the upper rungs, but if top sportsbooks got a vote, it would be Houston from the Big 12. The Cougars are fourth behind Auburn, Duke and Alabama on the championship futures at this time.
Boilers Rise to Top of B1G
Fans of the SEC shouldn’t be too upset if Tennessee and Florida both get left off the top 4 lines in the in-season release. The conference is definitely going to be well-represented in the rankings and will dominate Selection Sunday next month.
The Volunteers and Gators lead the second tier of the top 16, and present an interesting situation after splitting their regular season meetings with beatdowns of each other. Florida ripped then-No. 1 Tennessee by 30 in Gainesville and the Volunteers bashed the Gators by 20 in Knoxville.
In both games, the home sides were favored by 3 on the NCAAB odds, leaving fans and bettors hoping for a third meeting in the SEC Tournament.
Arizona is expected to join Houston to give the Big 12 two of the top 8 teams on the chart, and that pair is beginning to separate from the rest of the conference.
Purdue is my choice to round out the second Group of 4. The Boilermakers are just ahead of Michigan and Michigan State in the Big Ten standings and have won 11 of their last 12 while covering 9 of 11.
Will Big 12 Land as Many in Top 16 as SEC?
While the Southeastern Conference has dominated the conventional polls and is rightfully anointed as the top conference this year, the Big 12 should at least be lurking in the shadows on this in-season list, and could well could stand side-by-side with the SEC.
My choices for two of the 9-12 slots are Iowa State and Texas Tech. The Cyclones have been slipping, but did pull out of a 3-game skid and have a favorable schedule the nest couple of weeks, favorable being a relative term since this is the tough Big 12.
Texas Tech just saw a win streak end, but the Red Raiders should begin a new one with an advantageous fixture just ahead.
Some pundits have Texas A&M in the second quadrant, but the Aggies should at least rank in the 9-12 slots where they will be joined by a red-hot St. John’s Red Storm squad.
The final 4 spots in the in-season top 16 will generate the most controversy once it’s released, but then, that’s the way it always is with teams fitting a No. 17 description feeling oppressed. I like the odds of Gonzaga, Kansas, Illinois and Wisconsin filling out the top 16…and becoming easy targets to be bounced when final seeding is set by the NCAA Selection Committee.
Which Teams Could Push Their Way In?
Once the in-season top 16 is released on February 15, you can bet their returns on the futures odds will decrease. While the top 4 only wound up with the eventual four No. 1 seeds one time (2023 – Alabama, Houston, Purdue, Kansas), all of the first four teams on the rankings at least made the dance as a No. 4 seed.
Several teams stand ready to push aside the teams listed above, beginning with Kentucky. Michigan , Michigan State and Saint Mary’s are also on the top 16 bubble.
