The 2024 NFL regular season is only a few weeks away, which means you are running out of time to get those futures bets in on things like a team’s win total, which quarterbacks will throw for 4,000 yards, and the individual award winners.
But the sad reality is another NFL season also means more players getting injured, which can have a dramatic impact on how the season goes for their team if they are a very important player like a quarterback. Remember, the variation in over 70% of NFL outcomes can be determined solely by the efficiency of a team’s passing offense. That is largely about the quarterback.
Sure enough, we’ve already seen Minnesota rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy tear his meniscus, which will require surgery. He was already a tenuous pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year, but this injury has knocked him off the board altogether at many top-rated NFL sportsbooks.
But injuries can also have a compounding effect in the NFL when a team suffers too many of them at important positions or multiple positions. The 2020 49ers were rocked by so many injuries, which is why that season finished with a losing record while the team has been in at least the NFC Championship Game in every other season since 2019.
Remember, any player can get injured on any play. They can even see their season end in a practice during the week. But there are still some tips to consider. We have organized some thoughts on how to view the impact of injuries on various NFL futures betting markets for the upcoming season.
NFL Team Win Totals and Division Title Futures: Leveraging Quarterback Health
Nothing can sink a team’s season faster than an injury to a superstar quarterback. Most backups just aren’t capable of doing what the starter can do, or else they’d be starting somewhere too.
Who among us didn’t groan 4 snaps into the New York Jets’ 2023 season when Aaron Rodgers tore his meniscus? All those games are going to be played with Zach Wilson now? What a bummer. Down the drain went any tickets with the Jets going over 9.5 wins, the Jets making the playoffs, winning the AFC East, and Rodgers winning MVP.
A close up of the play on which Aaron Rodgers’ calf reverberates, and he winds up with what the Jets now believe is an Achilles injury, via @ACLrecoveryCLUB: pic.twitter.com/bcGeWGGiL0
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 12, 2023
In fact, the 2023 season proved to be abnormally awful for significant injuries to starting quarterbacks. There were 7 teams who saw their top quarterback suffer a season-ending injury:
- Aaron Rodgers, Jets: O/U 9.5 wins, finished 7-10 (under)
- Deshaun Watson, Browns: O/U 9.5 wins, finished 11-6 (over)
- Joe Burrow, Bengals: O/U 11.5 wins, finished 9-8 (under)
- Anthony Richardson, Colts: O/U 6.5 wins, finished 9-8 (over)
- Justin Herbert, Chargers: O/U 9.5 wins, finished 5-12 (under)
- Daniel Jones, Giants: O/U 7.5 wins, finished 6-11 (under)
- Kirk Cousins, Vikings: O/U 8.5 wins, finished 7-10 (under)
The under was 5-2 for the season win total for those teams. The Browns still went over in large part because Joe Flacco, who wasn’t on a team until late November, played much better than starter Deshaun Watson.
Look Into the QB’s Health History
A quarterback injury can be catastrophic to an over bet for a team’s win total. That’s why you should be conscious of the injury history of the quarterback for the team you’re betting to go over their win total. Players like Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) and Josh Allen (Bills) have been consistently healthy in their careers. Someone like Burrow in Cincinnati has finished 2-of-4 seasons on injured reserve, and even Lamar Jackson was injured in consecutive Decembers in 2021 and 2022, which caused his team to lose their lead in the AFC North to Burrow’s Bengals.
But you could also try to leverage that quarterback health risk. For one, you could bet against a quarterback like Anthony Richardson of the Colts staying healthy after he struggled so much with that in his rookie season, which means you would be betting on the team’s under. On the flip side, Joe Flacco is Richardson’s backup now, and he could do a good job again off the bench this year for a decent offensive coach like Shane Steichen.
That’s why you need to pay attention to who the backup quarterback is. Some teams are not going to see a huge drop from QB1 to QB2, but some would see a massive one like the Jets last year with Rodgers to Zach Wilson.
You could also apply some regression to the mean. If a quarterback had a season-ending injury last year, chances are it won’t happen two years in a row or else his luck is truly awful.
In Summary:
- High risk of injury with a bad backup situation gives the best value to the under.
- High risk of injury with a solid backup situation gives more value to the over.
- Low risk of injury with a bad backup situation gives more value to the under.
- Low risk of injury with a solid backup situation gives the best value to the over.
Hopefully, a terrible 2023 for quarterback injuries leads to a safer 2024. We saw it did work out that way in 2017-18.
NFL Awards Futures and Injuries
If you bet on a player to win an NFL award (MVP, Offensive/Defensive Player/Rookie of the Year, etc.) and they suffer a season-ending injury, you are pretty much screwed unless it happens in the final game of the regular season, which is practically never the case.
NFL player awards futures open you up to even more injury concerns since it also involves non-quarterbacks as the players who usually win awards like Offensive Player of the Year and of course the defensive awards. You’re worried about far more than the quarterback.
Of course, an injury to a receiver can also ruin a quarterback’s shot at MVP. Imagine if Patrick Mahomes lost Travis Kelce for the season in Kansas City. With the cast he’s had the last couple of years, you take Kelce out and things are pretty dire. So, a major injury like that can have a negative impact on the MVP for a quarterback too.
That’s why the best advice on betting awards in the preseason, especially if you like including a couple in a parlay, is to mix it up and hedge. Give yourself multiple options in case something goes wrong as most awards have great value with no clear favorite.
Keep an Eye on The Odds
Also, keep in mind you’ll want to keep checking the odds each week as they can change significantly. The 2023 season was unique in that the major award winners, excluding Joe “Started Playing After Thanksgiving” Flacco for Comeback Player of the Year, were won by players who had fairly high odds before the season started:
- MVP: Lamar Jackson (+1400, ranked No. 6)
- Offensive Player of the Year: Christian McCaffrey (+1500, ranked No. 3)
- Defensive Player of the Year: Myles Garrett (+600, ranked No. 2)
- Offensive Rookie of the Year: C.J. Stroud (+850, ranked No. 5)
- Defensive Rookie of the Year: Will Anderson Jr. (+400, ranked No. 1)
All of those award-winning players were ranked in the top 6 in preseason odds, which is rare. However, check out where those award winners were in the odds with 4 games left in the season in December:
- MVP: Lamar Jackson (+550, ranked No. 3)
- Offensive Player of the Year: Christian McCaffrey (+150, ranked No. 2)
- Defensive Player of the Year: Myles Garrett (+200, ranked No. 2)
- Offensive Rookie of the Year: C.J. Stroud (-20000, ranked No. 1)
- Defensive Rookie of the Year: Will Anderson Jr. (+700, ranked No. 3)
Only Stroud had a stranglehold on his award with a quarter of the season to go. Everyone else had to make a comeback for it, and those are all solid values in the odds. McCaffrey also needed Tyreek Hill to get injured and crush his chase of 2,000 receiving yards for him to claim OPOY.
Sure, it would be great to say we nailed it before Week 1 on who was going to win these awards. But with all the twists and turns these seasons take these days, there is a lot of hedging value to be had. Don’t get married to any one pick.
NFL Player Futures
With NFL player futures, you can bet on a variety of markets, including a player’s over/under for yardage, who will lead the league in rushing yards, who will score the most touchdowns, and which rookie quarterback will throw for the most yards.
Again, you have to consider not only the player’s injury risk, but also their main offensive teammate who can help them get to those lofty totals if you’re thinking of betting the over or a league lead.
For example, you might like Derrick Henry to win the rushing title (+750 at BetOnline (check our BetOnline Review)) now that he’s with the Ravens, who let J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards go to clear the way for King Henry.
First, you should probably consider that Lamar Jackson runs too much himself for a back to win the league rushing title in that offense. But more pertinent than that to our injury discussion, Henry will be 31 in January and has led the league in carries in 4-of-5 seasons. That’s a high-risk factor for injury, especially if they are going to use him as the lead back and take less of a committee approach.
Also, what happens if Jackson has an injury, and the offense goes in the tank again like it did in 2021-22 when Jackson was injured in December? His presence will help open up the rushing lanes for Henry in that offense, and you lose that if he’s out.
Considering Quarterback Health
Then for a receiving title, you have to consider the quarterback’s health there. Can you trust Burrow to get it done this year so that Ja’Marr Chase could possibly win a receiving yardage title with Tyler Boyd gone as the No. 3 receiver?
Maybe a good value there would be for Amon-Ra St. Brown to lead the league in receiving yards since they are struggling to find a No. 2 wideout with Josh Reynolds gone. Jared Goff has been very durable in his career too at quarterback. That’s one to consider as a value play for a futures bet.
Beware of Milestone Parlays
Finally, we wanted to warn you about one of the worst values in NFL futures betting: Parlays involving players hitting statistical milestones during the season such as 4,000-yard passers and 1,000-yard rushers and receivers.
Sportsbooks will usually let you pick up to 6 players to hit those milestones for a parlay, but the No. 1 reason those bets usually fail is someone gets injured and falls short. So, unless you have a separate bet to hedge the riskiest player by taking their season under, you should probably avoid making those parlays.
The worst one is probably the 1,000-yard rushers just because of how volatile health at the running back position can be. Imagine building one of those parlays last season, choosing Cleveland’s Nick Chubb to rush for 750 yards at like -700 odds, and then he suffers a season-ending knee injury in Week 2. Total bummer.
Milestone parlays are ripe for injuries breaking your heart. In the long run, you are better off betting on a single player you really like to exceed expectations by taking their over at better than even odds.
As always, here’s to rooting for fewer injuries in the upcoming NFL season.
