Is it Barry Bonds? Ted Williams? No, the wonder emerging out of left field is Kentucky head coach John Calipari’s move to Arkansas. After seeing their team lose to 14 seed Oakland in the first round of this year’s NCAA Tournament, Kentucky fans widely agree that it was time to move on from Calipari.
But we certainly can’t reduce Calipari’s tenure at Kentucky to this recent upset loss. There were undeniably great times as well. But were these great times a consequence of player talent or of Calipari’s effort as a coach? That is, should Calipari as the Kentucky head coach be remembered just as a recruiter, or did he also prove himself to be a good coach?
Calipari’s recent failures motivate one to question his earlier successes, because it is difficult to square those earlier times with these most recent seasons.
A message to #BBN: pic.twitter.com/TG344ipTfZ
— John Calipari (@UKCoachCalipari) April 9, 2024
A Lot of Success
Looking at the general numbers, nobody can deny that Calipari had great success at Kentucky.
He led the Wildcats to four Final Four appearances – in 2011, 2012, 2014 and 2015 – and one national title in 2012.
Case Study: Kentucky’s 2011 Team
By looking at Kentucky’s 2011 team, we can consider in detail a lot of questions about Calipari’s tenure at Kentucky as a whole.
The Wildcats this year finished 29-9. They were the fourth seed in the NCAA Tournament where they made it to the Final Four.
They had a tough road to get there, as they had to beat one seed Ohio State and two seed North Carolina. UConn, a three seed, knocked them out with a 56-55 victory.
Success or Underachievement?
Is this an acceptable outcome? Calipari’s team was talented, but did it underachieve?
The 2011 squad was certainly talented: shooting guard Doron Lamb was a five-star recruit, Terrence Jones was a five-star, Brandon Knight was a five-star, Darius Miller was a four-star and Josh Harrellson was a three-star. There are two details to note here: Kentucky was struggling at one point in the season, and its starting lineup featured three freshmen.
The Wildcats at one time were 7-6 in conference play. They were struggling. But Coach Cal made changes and developed his players.
Coach Cal’s MO
The criticism that Cal’s success is driven by player talent ignores not just his ability to recruit strong talent in the first place, but also the things he does as a coach to create success.
Calipari adjusts his team’s style every year, as new players with disparate strengths and tendencies come in. This 2011 squad, for example, was more perimeter-oriented and therefore featured less of Calipari’s typical dribble-drive motion offense and more cutters.
Calipari also develops players. On an individual level, as evident in his month-by-month numbers, Brandon Knight developed from being primarily a shooter into being more of a combo guard who could also distribute the ball effectively. Calipari also did more with Harrellson, who ended up being selected in the 2011 NBA Draft, than people expected.
Talent does not just develop itself, and talent does not just magically play together.
Calipari deserves credit for turning his 2011 team into a national title contender. He made use of his team’s great talent but in a way that developed his players’ skills and coordinated his players.
His team got as far as it did despite the fact that it featured three freshmen in the starting lineup. Experience is paramount in March, so succeeding with so many players who had never competed in the NCAA Tournament is impressive.
Kentucky’s opening-round game was actually a close call. It beat Princeton by two points. If it had lost, then Calipari’s legacy would include one less Final Four appearance.
Player Development
Calipari developed more than just Harrellson. There is a long list of players who improved under Calipari and even made it into the NBA.
A more current example would be Immanuel Quickley. Quickley came off the bench as a freshman before becoming SEC Player of the Year in his sophomore season.
Calipari taught him to become an off-ball threat, a threat who had to make plays without having the ball more often, someone who could get open and convert scoring opportunities. Currently, Quickley is succeeding in the NBA where he averages just over 18 points per game as the Toronto Raptors’ starting point guard.
He joins a long list of players who Calipari helped send to the NBA to succeed there.
Calipari does not use magic spells to recruit his players. He has a solid resume to point to that high schoolers justifiably find persuasive, although this resume is becoming less convincing over time.
Kentucky’s Decline Under Calipari
The Wildcats have not advanced past the second round in any of their last four seasons. Their most recent loss, in the first round to 14 seed Oakland, was the final straw for Calipari’s stay in Kentucky.
We saw in this game just how hard it is to be a freshman who succeeds in March. While Kentucky’s more experienced players thrived, freshman Reed Sheppard had almost as many turnovers as points, despite the tremendous offensive success that Sheppard had enjoyed in the regular season.
It was a close game, and his team struggled to execute in the waning moments.
We saw him lose close games even in his more successful seasons, but he seems to have declined in his late-game coaching.
Kentucky’s losses to Florida and Gonzaga this season provide more examples of this decline.
The player development aspect is lagging as well. There are fewer first-round draft picks, Cason Wallace being more of an exception than the norm.
Thoughts About The Trajectory Narrative
One final thought about the narrative that Coach Cal has declined as a coach: we have to consider that Calipari cannot play on the court.
How much, for example, would this narrative be thrown into question if Aaron Harrison wasn’t so clutch in the 2014 tournament and if PJ Washington had made his free throws in the Sweet 16 in 2018? Most recently, was Sheppard’s lack of composure not his fault to any extent? Was Oakland sharpshooter Jack Gohlke just an unfortunate phenomenon?
To some extent, one might say that circumstances beyond Calipari’s control have influenced Kentucky’s decline in recent years. I’m not sure that it’s possible to measure with precision the exact extent, but it’s interesting to think about.
Future Outlook for Kentucky
Kentucky needed to move on to Calipari given the raw fact of how much his teams have struggled year after year to meet the program’s high expectations.
You can bet on his replacement at one of our favorite NCAAB sportsbooks, BetOnline (check our BetOnline Review), where Scott Drew, Billy Donovan and Dan Hurley are the three most-favored options to become Kentucky’s next head coach.
