When evaluating how to bet a baseball game, the first aspect is to understand how the side or the total was created based on the teams. The second part is determining what parts the two starting pitchers play.
Every day for wagering on baseball, the starting pitcher is the greatest single variable. Though their role has been diminished in recent years due to pitch counts and analytics, every handicapper and baseball bettor has to decide what impact the starting hurler will have on the game he will pitch in.
How do you evaluate a starting pitcher? Let’s go over what matters most and what is overrated.
Researching Pitchers Who Can Win or Lose Your Bets
The first step is sticking with the basics, like season performance, recent performance, and his team’s record when he started. From here we start digging into the details. You should consider:
- ERA
- Strikeouts per nine innings
- Walks per start
- Hits per start
- Home run allowed compared to starts
The ERA generally points to overall effectiveness. Strikeouts tell you the pitcher’s overall skill which means fewer balls put in play. Walks per start lets you know how many extra base runners he’s giving up, which could lead to runs. Hits per outing help the capper understand how good of ‘stuff’ a hurler has and how effective he is on a particular day.
Pitchers who walk too many hitters either have command issues or nibble too much on the corners to give out free passes. Then, when trailing in the count, they have to throw a strike, which the batters know and base hits can occur. Concerning home runs allowed; if the number is low, great. If the number is high but the ERA is still below average, that signals the pitcher is giving up mostly solo blasts which hurt less than long balls with base runners.
Additionally, you want to know home/road splits. Is a pitcher nearly unbeatable at home, yet at best 50-50 on the road? Plus, does the opposing team have potent hitters who can take advantage of the pitcher if he’s right or left-handed?
Breaking Down Other Factors
Baseball bettors are continually finding new tools with the plethora of baseball statistics that might make them smarter in choosing winners. These can be very useful and helpful, just keep in mind not each one will provide an answer to finding more winners.
The WHIP (walks + hits per inning) paints a solid comparative number next to ERA’s. If a pitcher has a WHIP under 1.10, he would be thought of as a reliable starter. If the WHIP is 1.30 or higher, this looks like potential trouble. (NOTE: Use WHIP on starters for both home and away, that can make a large difference in capping.)
Newer analytical tools like xERA (Expected ERA) and FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) offer an advanced look at an ERA. Essentially this is a drill down of an earned run average. There are bettors who swear by these numbers and will say they have a predictive nature. That is partially true but you don’t know if something good or bad will happen the next start or in three starts trending in a different direction from what’s been the norm. It is always best to figure out what works for you.
Look For Starting Pitchers Who Do This
Though the game of baseball has changed dramatically when it comes to pitching, there are still tried and true elements that matter.
Starters who regularly pitch six or more innings are far more valuable to their teams than those who average five innings or slightly more. Pitchers that toss at least six innings are more effective and efficient with their pitches. They also save the bullpen, normally, meaning clubs can use their top three relievers in specific roles.
With bullpens having so much usage, only with the elite pens do bettors like their chances in a tied game or having a one-run lead in the later innings.
With the explosive growth of props betting, having a pitcher that pitches into at least the sixth inning you can consider props like these.
- OVER 15.5 Outs Recorded
- YES to Record a Win
- UNDER Hits Allowed
- UNDER Earned Runs Allowed
Thus, besides trying to uncover MLB winners, you could add MLB props to your arsenal without doing extra work.
Lastly, Don’t Do These Things
It makes little sense to overreact to one good or poor outing. Your mission is to think of the “bigger picture” and not buy into one start.
However, if a pitcher has a 3.70 ERA in August, but in his previous half dozen starts his ERA is over 5.00 and is giving up bunches of hits, you have to weigh recent form over season-long numbers because that is where he is over the last five weeks.
Don’t settle for doing some of the work. If a starting pitcher is permitting more than the average amount of home runs, and he’s facing a lineup of sluggers in their homer-friendly park, you have to be aware of this. Going above the call of duty not only can add wins but also prevent losses, which is a two-fold way to build your bankroll.
