No matter how many new betting markets become available for the NFL, the point spread is still the classic test of a bettor’s predictive skills. What’s the final margin of victory going to be? But to get better at NFL spread betting, you must understand the key numbers for those decisive margins and how that should affect your strategies.
In this era of NFL spread betting, there are more options than ever available to bettors. You can always do the traditional pre-game spread bet on the line currently offered at top-rated sportsbooks. You can bet on an alternate line to your liking, especially if you think a team is going to produce a blowout. You can also place a live bet during the game, either going with the new line carefully chosen by the oddsmaker or another alternate line (if available).
Despite some slight changes to how teams are scoring in the NFL, the key numbers have largely remained the same for the spread. Let’s look at those numbers and show why they are important.
The Key Numbers in the NFL
Since NFL teams are still primarily scoring with field goals and touchdowns, the key numbers in the NFL relate to those margins provided by such a scoring structure. That means key numbers are 3, 6, 7, and 10 given that a field goal is worth 3 points and a touchdown is still generally worth 7 points. Add a pair of field goals together for 6 points. Add a field goal to a touchdown for 10 points. You can also add a pair of touchdowns together for 14 points. Pretty simple stuff.
Sure, we see slightly fewer made extra points now that the NFL pushed those kicks back to the 35-yard line, and many teams are starting to go for 2-point conversions more often in advantageous situations as discovered by analytics.
Since 2020, these are still the only 5 point margins that make up at least 5% of all final scores in the NFL:
- 3 points (15.3% of games)
- 7 points (7.6% of games)
- 6 points (6.9% of games)
- 10 points (5.2% of games)
- 14 points (5.1% of games)
Just from those 5 numbers built on touchdowns and field goals, you can account for over 40% of the final score margins in the NFL this decade. The 3-point game is still king as it happens just over 15% of the time, or about once for every 6-to-7 games.
Next, let’s look at specific strategies related to these key numbers.
Key Number: 3 Points
About 15% of NFL games are going to have a spread of exactly 3 points. The sportsbooks love pushing that number as it’s tougher for favorites to cover than a spread of 2.5, which is the 2nd-most commonly used spread. Just check these success rates in recent years:
- Since 2020, 3-point favorites have a cover rate of 46.0% and a push rate of 9.1%.
- Since 2020, 2.5-point favorites have a cover rate of 49.2% and cannot push as there are no half points in football’s scoring.
If you don’t want a push, the team has to win by at least 4 points. For reference, teams win by exactly 4 points just 4.9% of the time compared to 15.3% for 3-point wins on the nose.
This is why bettors love watching the line movement for a small spread like this, a frequent occurrence in the NFL each week. This is the strategy to follow:
- If you like the favorite to cover, you want to get the spread at 2.5 points at the best price possible for the most value.
- If you like the underdog to cover, you want to get the spread at 3 points at the best price possible for the most value.
This is why some bettors will buy an extra half point to get the line in the direction they want depending on who they believe is the right side to back. But 2.5 points is ideal for the favorite and 3 is the way to go with an underdog.
Key Number: 6 Points
When you think of a 6-point margin, you might think of a team winning a game in overtime with a touchdown. But that’s actually quite rare in a season. A win by exactly 6 points is still the 3rd-most common outcome in the NFL at just under 6.9% of games since 2020.
However, games where the spread is exactly 6 points have had a terrible success rate in recent years for the favorite:
- Of the last 75 NFL games with a 6-point spread, the favorite has only covered 28 times (37.3%) and there were 5 pushes, meaning they failed to cover or push 56% of the time.
- In that same time, NFL teams favored by 5.5 points are 33-39 ATS (45.8%), which is still not great, but it’s been a safer strategy for favorites than the 6-point line.
Historically speaking, these are tough spreads for favorites to cover as the odds are increased for them to get the win but not cover (i.e. win by 1-to-5 points). Still, the general strategy is the same in that you’d want the favorite at 5.5 and the underdog at 6.0 on the spread bet.
Key Number: 7 Points
As you can probably imagine by now, getting a spread of 7 points is not ideal compared to a line of 6.5 points. But the recent results show this is one of the most significant differences in the NFL these days for a betting edge:
- Since 2020, 6.5-point favorites have covered the spread 57.4% of the time, the best rate for any of the most common spreads in the NFL.
- Since 2020, 7-point favorites have covered the spread 46.4% of the time with only a single push.
That half point has had a solid difference of 11 percentage points in success for the favorite. It’s just that much easier to win by at least 7 to cover a 6.5-point spread than it is to score more than 7 to cover a 7-point spread without a push. That’s because a team is usually going to have to win by 8, 10, or 14 to do so whereas a 6.5-point spread can be achieved by the full touchdown win of 7 points, the 2nd-most common outcome in the NFL.
So, this is one where you definitely want to get the line at 6.5 when you like the favorite and 7 for the underdog.
Key Number: 10 Points
Finally, there’s a 10-point spread, and that’s usually one you’ll want to avoid for favorites. Sure, they’re going to win those games over 85% of the time, but their cover rate is under 40% going back almost 2 decades.
The problem here is you’re not that likely to win a game by 11, 12, or 13 points to get a 10-point cover without a push. So, it’s more realistic that you’ll have to win by 14 or more points, and that’s hard to do in a league where the majority of games are decided by single digits.
Even the Kansas City Chiefs, the team going for a 3-peat, have really struggled to win games by double digits during their runs. We know the backdoor cover can be brutal to a big favorite who is up 2 scores late in the game and may be playing some prevent defense and gives up a late score to make it single digits again.
That’s why you definitely want to get that number down to 9.5 for favorites and 10 is just fine for the underdog. A decent strategy here is to parlay the underdog covering with the favorite on the moneyline.
