Super Bowl LVIII was an instant classic finish in NFL history with just the 2nd Super Bowl to go to overtime. Thanks to the new overtime rules for the postseason, the game was 3 seconds away from extending to a 2nd period. However, the Chiefs managed to walk off with a game-winning touchdown pass from Patrick Mahomes to Mecole Hardman, which also resulted in a heavy hit for most of the top NFL betting sites. So, did Kyle Shanahan misjudge the NFL’s new overtime rules when he decided to receive after winning the coin toss?
The NFL changed the overtime rules for the playoffs 2 years ago in large part as a reaction to how Kansas City beat Buffalo, 42-36, in the 2021 AFC divisional round. Mahomes was able to force overtime in the final 13 seconds of that game, then he threw a game-winning touchdown to Travis Kelce while Josh Allen and the Bills never got to touch the ball again.
One year ago today, Bills-Chiefs. 13 seconds. pic.twitter.com/l4hNAYQZo6
— OddsStack (@OddsStack) January 23, 2023
That followed a recent precedent of this happening in big playoff games as it also happened to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in Seattle in the 2014 NFC Championship Game, Matt Ryan and the 2016 Falcons against the Patriots in Super Bowl LI and Mahomes and the Chiefs were on the losing end of it to the Patriots in the 2018 AFC Championship Game.
Enough was enough, and the NFL finally acted with a new system where both teams are guaranteed to touch the ball even if there is a touchdown to start overtime. Super Bowl LVIII was the 1st playoff game to showcase these new rules and they worked out in dramatic fashion.
There was also some confusion on how the clock works as it was approaching 0:00 with the Chiefs still trailing and the concept of a game continuing, under those circumstances, is new territory for the NFL.
Players from both teams have said vastly different things about how prepared (or not) they were for this moment that just so happened to come on the biggest stage possible in the Super Bowl.
So, did Kyle Shanahan blow the moment for the 49ers, and what should teams do going forward with this big change to overtime?
What the Chiefs and 49ers Are Saying About Overtime
In 2008, former Philadelphia quarterback Donovan McNabb infamously acknowledged that he did not know that a game could end in a tie when playing overtime in the NFL’s regular season. Needless to say, not every player is going to be up on the details of how overtime works, especially with changes to the system in 2011 to allow for the game to continue after a first-drive field goal and then more changes a decade later for just the playoffs.
However, the Chiefs apparently had this covered going back to training camp in interviews obtained from The Ringer. Star defensive lineman Chris Jones knew exactly what to expect. “We talked through this for two weeks,” Jones said. “How we was going to give the ball to the opponent; if they scored, we was going for two at the end of the game. We rehearsed it.”
Is there a right answer to the question of receive vs. defer in the new overtime rules? At least in Super Bowl 58 there was a wrong one.
The Chiefs practiced for this scenario; the 49ers did not.
My story from last night in Vegas for @ringernfl: https://t.co/I3eKH0fb5U
— Lindsay Jones (@bylindsayhjones) February 12, 2024
Safety Jordan Reid said similar things and Patrick Mahomes backed it all up by saying the Chiefs would kick if they won the overtime coin toss so that they could use all 4 downs and know what they needed to do on offense to win the game.
Patrick Mahomes says on ESPN that the Chiefs would have deferred/kicked if they won the toss in overtime. So they’d know what they needed.
“We changed the rules, we can execute them both ways. I don’t know how they’re going to change it this time.”
— Chris Vannini (@ChrisVannini) February 12, 2024
Confusion
But confusion was the theme of the 49ers. “I didn’t even know about the new playoff overtime rule,” longtime defensive lineman Arik Armstead told the media after the 49ers’ loss. “It was a surprise to me. I didn’t know what was going on, in terms of that. They put it on the scoreboard and everyone was thinking, even if you score, they get a chance still.”
Fullback Kyle Juszczyk has been around a long time too, and he didn’t know the rules have changed either. “I didn’t even realize that the playoff rules were different in overtime,” Juszczyk said. “So I just assumed you won the ball, you score a touchdown and you win. But I guess that’s not the case. So I don’t totally know the strategy there.”
What About Kyle Shanahan?
Yikes! But what about Kyle Shanahan, the so-called offensive genius coach of the 49ers?
Apparently, he was aware of the difference as he discussed his strategy. “That’s just something we talked about, none of us have a ton of experience with it, but we went through the analytics and talked to those guys and thought it would be better,” Shanahan said. “We wanted the ball third, but both teams matched and scored. We wanted to be the ones to be the ones who had the chance to go win.”
Shanahan explains why the 49ers elected to receive first in overtime 🔽 pic.twitter.com/ypkRcIgoCX
— 49ers on NBCS (@NBCS49ers) February 12, 2024
Shanahan’s strategy to go first seems to lean heavily on the value of being the team that gets the first shot with the ball in sudden death on overtime’s third possession. If both teams are still tied after they each had the ball, then the game reverts to sudden death, and you can win it with just a field goal while the other team does not get to answer.
Fair enough. This addition of sudden death is how the NFL differs from college football’s overtime where teams continue to trade possessions on a short field until someone finishes a period with more points than the opponent.
But Shanahan should have borrowed some strategy from the college game where the value of knowing exactly what you need is key. He also needed to factor in he was facing Patrick Mahomes.
“Kyle Shanahan taking the ball in overtime was crazy..
I would’ve never given the ball to Mahomes with four downs and that’s what he did”@danorlovsky7 #PMSLive pic.twitter.com/aZdGMmuX2D
— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) February 12, 2024
Why Teams Want the Ball Second in Overtime
When the 49ers won the coin toss in overtime and chose to receive first, there had to be a smirk of joy for many of the Kansas City players. After all, they were prepped to go last in this scenario and they also have the Grim Reaper on their side in Mahomes.
The reason college football teams like to go on defense first in overtime is so they know what they need between a field goal and touchdown and if they need to convert a 2-point conversion. That information matters because it determines how you call plays.
This should matter even more in the NFL playoffs where you have a long field to travel. Knowing exactly what you need can dictate some huge advantages in your favor that the team going first does not truly have:
- If the first team fails to score, you know you can win the game on a field goal now.
- If the first team scores a field goal, you know you can win the game with a touchdown, and you can use all 4 downs to move down the field.
- If the first team scores a touchdown, they are almost certainly going to kick the extra point to go up 7, because no one wants to be the coach who lost a playoff game after going for 2, not getting it and the other team kicked the extra point to win the game.
- If the first team scores a touchdown and extra point to go up 7, you can win the game with a touchdown and 2-point conversion, foregoing the sudden death portion.
The ability to play 4-down football when you are the second team is really the key here. Look at San Francisco’s overtime drive as a great example. The 49ers supposedly wanted to give their tired defense some rest too, but they were a holding penalty on the Chiefs away from going 3-and-out and punting the ball right back to Mahomes, who then only needed a field goal to win.
Brock Purdy threw incomplete on 3rd-and-13, and that was going to be a punt if not for a holding call on Trent McDuffie. You can’t go for it on 4th-and-13 from your own 22 in that situation. Not logically or confidently at least. That team is punting every time.
The More You Know
After the 49ers scored their field goal, the Chiefs took over and knew they needed at least a field goal to keep the game going. But they also had the advantage of being able to use all 4 downs to get 10 yards the rest of the way. They even converted a 4th-and-1 right away on Mahomes’ 8-yard run to keep the season alive.
The other element to this, besides knowing what you need and playing 4-down offense, is the clock factor. Why do a lot of 2-minute drives in the hurry-up offense fail in the NFL? Teams run out of time. They start panicking and rushing things because the clock is the enemy in addition to the defense and that’s how you end up with game-ending interceptions or sacks from holding the ball too long to make a chunk play.
This overtime situation is unique because the clock is, basically, irrelevant in the playoffs. There was confusion over this as the clock was ticking down to the final seconds and the Chiefs were still trailing 22-19. Was the game about to end with no one calling timeout? What are the Chiefs doing?
Then Mahomes just casually threw to an uncovered Hardman in the end zone with 3 seconds left and it was over. Chiefs win. But as it turns out, the rules do state that the game would have continued to a second overtime period with the Chiefs still facing 1st-and-goal at the 3. This is because their first possession had not been completed, so the game has to continue in the playoffs. That’s how it works.
The final play.
I thought it was especially gutsy because Patrick Mahomes only left 3 seconds on the clock, but I’m told the overtime period would’ve rolled over to another “quarter” and the Chiefs would’ve been able to exhaust their 4 downs there. #SuperBowl pic.twitter.com/l09WOCdhyc
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) February 12, 2024
Don’t Despair
Consider how different this is from a normal desperation drive where you have to score or the game ends. Teams are always rushing the clock on those, but not in this case. You can literally dink and dunk your way down the field with gains of 4-to-6 yards that a prevent defense, trying to not give up the touchdown, will allow you. Plus, you can take your sweet time doing it with 4 downs.
That is essentially what the Chiefs did on their game-winning drive too. No pressure to rush things along. Just keep moving the chains and, eventually, Mahomes broke them with his legs to make the ending feel inevitable once they reached the red zone despite earlier struggles in that department.
Giving the best quarterback 4 downs to get 10 yards with no clock pressure is one of the worst decisions you can make. That’s why you go last instead or if you do give him that opportunity, you better make the most of your first drive and that’s the other area where the 49ers botched this.
San Francisco’s Drive Wasn’t Aggressive Enough
NFL teams scored on roughly 35.5% of all drives in 2023 according to data at Pro Football Reference. The 49ers were No. 2 at 45.3% so they are able to get points almost half of the time. They also had the No. 1 red zone offense, scoring a touchdown on 67.2% of drives.
But we also knew the Chiefs had an elite defense that adjusted well and held every opponent under 28 points this year. Only Green Bay (27) topped 24 points on this Kansas City team.
That’s another reason why it was a risky call to go first on offense as to make that really count, you almost have to score the touchdown. That’s harder to do when you’re not going to go for 4th downs as much as you would if you were trailing and had to do it.
Like we said before, the 49ers were a soft penalty call away from going 3-and-out, making this a disaster for them. But they did work the ball down the field and faced a 1st-and-10 at the Kansas City 15. After a run by Christian McCaffrey made it 2nd-and-4, he got the call again and gained nothing as the Chiefs did an admirable job of slowing down the run. Maybe a play-action pass is the smarter call there as you don’t want Purdy facing another 3rd-down blitz package that the Chiefs love to send from defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo.
Sure enough, the Chiefs brought some heat and Chris Jones made Purdy throw the ball away. Would you consider going for it on 4th-and-4 at the Kansas City 9? You almost have to consider it given Mahomes on the other side. Sure, it would look bad to turn it over on downs and leave yourself open to losing on a field goal, but the Chiefs also would have been backed up inside their 10 and not able to take advantage of 4-down football.
The 49ers kicked a 27-yard field goal, and the rest is history. But you have to really consider going for the touchdown there if you go first on offense. That difference in 3-down football and 4-down football is just huge.
We are referring to Mahomes as inevitable, but there are ways to stop him. Just ask yourself one thing. Would you rather let him have 4 plays to get 10 yards or 3 plays to get 10 yards?
Back In Cincy
In the 2021 AFC Championship Game against Cincinnati, Mahomes did get the ball first in overtime again a week after downing Buffalo with a touchdown drive. History could have repeated itself, but that time, Mahomes threw 2 incompletions followed by an interception on 3rd-and-10 at midfield that the Bengals turned into the game-winning field goal.
Patrick Mahomes last postseason INT was a pass that bounced off of Tyreek Hill’s hands in the 2021-22 AFC Championship. pic.twitter.com/uaTiMTJF9Z
— 🗣🎙‼️ (@LanceTHESPOKEN) January 29, 2024
Does Mahomes throw that same deep pass on 3rd-and-10 if he knew he had another down to get the 10 yards? Use the same logic in this Super Bowl. If the 49ers turned it over on downs in the red zone and Mahomes was facing a 3rd-and-10 inside his 10, does he just chuck one up in a tied game or does he play it safer?
Again, the value in knowing what you need and the advantages you get to do it should usually outweigh the value in thinking you’ll get the ball back. Because there is no guarantee this game goes beyond the second possession.
This one sure didn’t.
Conclusion: Bet We See a Team Kickoff Next Time
To summarize the mistakes Shanahan made in overtime:
- He didn’t approach the first drive aggressively enough to try to get the touchdown and put the most pressure possible on the Chiefs to answer.
- He didn’t account for the Chiefs being likely to go for 2 to never give the 49ers another possession and to avoid the game ever getting to sudden death.
- He didn’t respect the inevitability of Patrick Mahomes having 4-down football with no clock pressure to drive down the field for a walk-off touchdown.
For years, the best way to beat Mahomes was to deny him the football at the end. Don’t give him a chance to beat you, because we’ve seen even 13 seconds is too much time for him to score. You want to be able to end the game on offense against him.
Things were a little different with the way the Chiefs played in the 2023 regular season with their mistakes by the receivers. Marquez Valdes-Scantling even ran 10 yards backward to set up a 2nd-and-13 in overtime. But Mahomes was able to overcome it all with the championship on the line.
After the way this game ended, you can bet the next time we see a playoff game go to overtime, the team winning the coin toss is going to kick off and go on defense first.
You still have to play to the matchup with the strengths and weaknesses of your team combined with the same for the opponent. Maybe if you are facing an inexperienced quarterback, you go on offense first and put the pressure on him to answer a score, expecting your defense to close the game out.
However, the playoffs usually bring out the cream of the crop, the best quarterbacks and the best defenses. These overtime rules are not going to apply to games involving a team with Nick Mullens at quarterback and a team headed for 14 losses. Only the best in January and February.
He may never admit it publicly, but Shanahan is going to forever regret letting Mahomes get the ball last knowing exactly what he needed to do. You might get away with that when you are facing a lesser quarterback in this situation, but not against the best in the game.
