When you look on social media, the number of baseball bettors that start fast is astonishing. Of course, 99% of those on various platforms are not monitored in any way, thus, they can say what they want without checks and balances to verify their supposed records.
As we have mentioned here in another article, getting off to a winning start is not easy, as the first month of the season will find some contenders struggling and bottom-feeders having unlikely success. If you get caught up in losing in the early season, there are ways to help turn your season around.
Mistake – Trusting Starting Pitchers
If you look for any – Betting Baseball Articles – among the most talked about aspects of betting baseball is determining a starting pitcher’s edge. That remains true, though less so than in the past because of analytics.
It is a well-known fact that starting pitchers today seldom pitch into the sixth inning, let alone the seventh frame. With a reduction in usage, the starting pitchers are now asked to throw as hard as they can for five/six innings before turning it over to the bullpen.
Of course, bullpen pitchers who pitch in the 5th, 6th or sometimes in the 7th inning are not skilled enough to be starters or closers. That is why you need a better way to make MLB bets for full nine-inning contests.
Solution – Two Ways to Improve Starting Pitchers Dilemma
First, research the effectiveness of a team’s bullpen. Do they collectively have a low ERA and WHIP that gives them a reliability factor? Get to know if they have quality setup men and closers. If you have a starting pitcher and bullpen edge, that should provide you an advantage. Just remember, it is still baseball, anything can happen.
Returning to starting pitchers, a possibly better way to win money betting baseball is to wager on First 5 Innings. If your choice is known for regularly being efficient with pitches to go deeper in games, particularly versus his mound counterpart, that becomes an important tool to utilize.
Mistake – Backing Home Favorites
If you are an MLB bettor who takes advantage of many of the tools on the internet that give you a projection percentage of an outcome of a baseball game, they can be as helpful as they are harmful, especially in the early season.
Over decades, the home team has won roughly 54% of the time. Included in that mix are the top teams who win 60 percent or more at their park and those who are 40% or less at their ballyard. In each instance, the top home squads are often favorites and those that post poor results at home are underdogs.
In the first quarter of the season, the situation is more volatile, depending on a group of factors that include current form, injuries, and quality of schedule. Blindly backing home favorites in April and early May can cut any bankroll in half or worse.
According to Spotrac there are 36 major league starting pitchers on the IL with elbow issues. There are another 16 that are on the IL with shoulder issues. 6 others with “arm” issues.
That is a total of 58 starting pitchers on the IL across all of MLB with some sort of arm… pic.twitter.com/O10Qo268XB— Max Fried Stash (Extend👏Max👏Fried👏) (@MaxFriedstash) April 9, 2024
Solution – Follow Hot Teams, Bet Against Cold Clubs
As mentioned, the standings in the first quarter of the year can look odd. If a bad team is playing well, it makes sense to consider them daily if they have handicapping edges and at the very least bet or follow them until they falter.
The same is true of teams that were supposed to be division contenders who stumbled out of the gate. Maybe they are in a team slump, are playing a loaded early slate, or have a beat-up pitching staff. Forget where they are playing, betting against them as faves can be profitable.
Mistake – Betting Parlays
This isn’t news because every bettor has been warned at some point even if they have placed a wager. However, with expanded gambling in the U.S., every sportsbook promotes parlays because they are “fun” and you can make “a lot of money” if correct.
What those books don’t tell you is that parlays are the top money producers every single year. It is hard enough to pick one winner on a daily basis betting baseball, let alone two boxed together.
Solution – Learn a New Baseball Skill
The simplest answer is don’t bet parlays. Despite the warnings, we know many of you are stilling to do so. That is your prerogative.
What we’ll suggest is something new and different. Consider becoming an expert on pitcher props like say – Innings Pitched By a Starter. If you are unfamiliar here is what this prop looks like.
- Pitcher (Name) Over/Under 15.5 Outs
Because you are studying the pitchers anyway, this is a natural offshoot of something you can teach yourself that can benefit you both early in the year and throughout the season. You have a variety of options and it can improve your game handicapping at the same time. Having to pick one winner is always easier than two combined.
