When it comes to betting on baseball, most scoff at Spring Training as a reliable source for placing bets at the MLB betting sites. With that said, that doesn’t mean baseball in late February and March should not help shape certain bets as we explain.
What You Can Learn from Spring Training for Wagering Purposes
While betting on Spring Training games is not recommended, that does not suggest there are no important lessons to learn or takeaways.
Specifically, if a team is expected to win their division and has a season win total of 89 or higher and ends up with a win percentage of 35% or lower before the season starts, that is a potential red flag to become a division champion.
The most important element is to discover why this happened. Specifically,
- Did a team just play awful baseball, showing a lack of depth in their pitching and hitting?
- Did this particular club suffer injuries to everyday players who could be out for months or the entire season?
- Was the pitching staff having to work around pitchers with ailments that could just be something that happens early or is this a possible precursor of more injury problems later?
If you tie up your money for months, you need to have all the facts and information you can learn before putting down your money. Because there will be plenty of ups and downs even during the regular season.
Just Because the Games Don’t Count Doesn’t Suggest the Information Is Not as Sound
One argument certain MLB bettors will make: I want to see how teams or players react when the games count. That is a fair point. However, what the results are in April and over the first 40 games does not determine how a full season will play out.
How many times have teams that are projected to win less than 75 games come storming out of the gate, grab everyone’s attention and have say an 18-10 start? This occurs annually with two, sometimes three teams.
By the All-Star break, these clubs have slid back to below .500 or below and that general decline continues.
The same can be true of World Series contenders who cannot hit or pitch to start the year and are causing panic with their fans at 10-16 when they are supposed to win 93 or more games. Then 10 days before Memorial Day, they go 8-2 and put together a 32-18 run or better and climb back into first place.
Making a futures bet before the season can often have more value for betting than waiting until later in the season.
Other Factors to Ponder for Spring Training Wagers
If you are betting players to win an MVP, batting title or lead the majors or their league in home runs, make sure they are healthy coming out of Spring Training.
Some players will play through injuries and you are left wondering why they are batting .200 heading into mid-May or have two homers in the same span.
That is why you should track those individuals in March to be certain they came through unscathed. Of course, an injury could occur in the opening contest of the season, but you would rather have a 100% healthy player for your bets to start the year.
Finally, when making team wagers for Over/Under wins or to win divisions, leagues or the World Series, consider the manager.
A top skipper can win five or more games a season by making the right moves. The same is true of a poor manager who loses games. You would not want to back a team if the manager is in the Top 3 of a prop bet for First Manager Fired in a particular season.
Granted, a manager needs talent to win but for team totals, having the right skipper calling the shots could put you on the right side of an Over bet.
