One of the biggest changes in sports betting over the last 10 years has been the growth of player and game props, and that’s especially true for baseball, where there can be hundreds of props available on any given day and at any given online sportsbook.
Just as sudden growth in any sector of business can be, however, the quick rise in the popularity of prop bets has been disastrous for some bettors lacking in discipline or understanding.
Prop Bets vs. Game Bets
The first step in avoiding disaster with regards to sports betting overall is always to do business with a top-rated sportsbook that hangs competitive prices. It also helps to understand the relationship between traditional game odds and the odds for prop bets.
The odds for props are as dependent upon the numbers posted for moneylines and totals as a 5-year-old kid is dependent on their mother and father. And the oddsmakers setting those numbers are always smarter than the 5-year-old.
Other than books generally setting lower limits on prop bets than regular game lines, the biggest difference between the two types of wagers is reaction time. Moneylines and totals are more closely monitored and market response can be instantaneous.
That’s not always the case for prop bets, opening the door for savvy bettors to take advantage of a soft or latent number, as well as those who understand the pricing or amount of juice a specific wager is carrying.
It’s All About the Matchup(s)
MLB betting sites begin their work by looking at the teams matching up, and then the pitchers starting on the mound when setting their initial moneylines and totals.
Bettors playing props have to go much deeper with the matchup analysis. An over/under on a pitcher’s K total means analyzing his matchup history with the opposition, where those matchups took place, whether or not a key batter was missing in the previous meeting, or will be missing from the lineup this time around, etc.
Playing props for hitters – for example, over/under on total bases – is much the same. It goes beyond the matchup history with the starting pitcher, and includes the opposition’s bullpen. Has that bullpen been overworked in recent days, or is it fresh heading into the game?
May 23, 2002: Dodgers’ Shawn Green goes 6-for-6 against the Brewers with 4 HRs, 7 RBI, and a MLB record 19 total bases.
pic.twitter.com/PCOOHyAK7q— This Day In Sports Clips (@TDISportsClips) May 24, 2024
And Now Over to Wendy for the Weather Forecast
I’m a bit of a weather geek, and meteorological conditions factor more heavily into my handicapping than many bettors. You don’t have to be as big of a geek as me, but taking the weather into account is a must regardless of what type of MLB odds you’re playing.
Just like horses, some hitters and pitchers are good mudders. More specifically, some players like it hot and humid, others like it cooler, and still others perform better indoors than outside. Arming yourself with as much of that data as possible will increase the likelihood of success.
Knowing the umpires also helps. Some field arbiters have wider strike zones than others, something that will go away once robot umps are employed. The good news now is we don’t have to worry any longer about Angel Hernandez after he retired. I refused to bet games he worked the plate in the last four years.
Location, Location, Location!
Of the 3,630 hits Stan Musial recorded during his career, he picked up 1,815 of them at his home parks in St. Louis and the same 1,815 at the other National League ballparks. In other words, no matter where he was playing, The Man was the same, dangerous hitter.
It’s a huge understatement to say not every hitter is as consistent as Musial, so unless he rises from the grave, bettors need to know how hitters or pitchers perform at home compared to on the road when making their prop bets.
It also goes beyond simple home/road splits. For sundry reasons, some players perform better at some ballparks than others. Oddsmakers know this and factor that into their odds, but they don’t always set those odds strictly on the history a player has at a specific park because they’re also adjusting for John Q. Public’s reaction.
Beware the Shiny Objects
Back in the day when there were only three major networks beaming their messages to rabbit ear antennas inside homes, sports segments on the evening news consisted of about four minutes of scores and maybe a brief mention of an upcoming game or series.
That all changed 40-odd years ago when ESPN went on the air. Pregame shows, postgame shows and promos of all types now occupy more broadcast time than actual games, and the slick studio personalities can make it difficult not to be sucked into making an unwise wager.
Next time the fashionably-dressed studio personalities are pouring over stats and making their MLB prop picks, turn your back on the screen and just focus on what they’re saying instead of their body language and all the accompanying graphics.
We know you’re keeping track of your winning and losing bets, but is anyone keeping a record for the gal in the high heels or the dude in the hoodie?
