It’s a short 4-team tease at top sportsbooks this Saturday, but half of those contests should be on every college football bettor’s radar.
Montana State Bobcats vs. New Mexico Lobos
Saturday, August 24, 2024 – 4 PM ET at University Stadium
One of the most anticipated college football seasons ever gets underway this weekend, and what promises to be a campaign filled with oddities begins with a betting twist: The game with the shortest spread is an FCS/FBS collision, and it’s the FCS side that’s favored.
For bettors, the battle between the Montana State Bobcats and New Mexico Lobos presents an opportunity to see one of the better FCS teams in action, and a chance to gain a little experience with a division that doesn’t attract as much interest as the big boys.
Montana State a Top 5 #FCS team with an outstanding QB in Tommy Mellott opens as a 8.5 point road favorite according to theScore app vs Bronco Mendenhall and the Lobos 👀 pic.twitter.com/QZUaMzffO9
— NCAAF Nation (@NCAAFNation247) August 14, 2024
High Hopes for the Bobcats
Preseason polls have Montana State a consensus No. 4, and the NCAAF futures also list the Bobcats fourth in the FCS with a +360 return. Brent Vigen’s squad also had high expectations last season, but came up short as small chalk in an overtime loss in the FCS playoffs.
Vigen has a wealth of talent back from that 8-4 team that will be playing with a bit of a chip on its shoulder. One task for Vigen and his staff will be to keep their Bobcat players from looking too far ahead to the big rivalry showdown against Montana, once again the Big Sky favorite.
There’s a strong O-line to clear the way for top tailback Julius Davis. There’s experienced depth behind Davis, and the Bobcats ranked second in the FCS in rushing a season ago with 291 yards per game.
A huge key will be keeping dual-threat QB Tommy Mellott healthy. Mellott should be able to rely on the running game, especially with a defensive unit that is poised to have a big year.
Bronco Begins Rebuild in Albuquerque
Anne Bancroft starred in the 1962 movie titled The Miracle Worker, and Bronco Mendenhall faces a similar task taking over the Lobos this season. Mendenhall arrives at New Mexico with an impressive résumé, but he’s taking the reins of a team that has won only 19 games since 2017.
Wins should be at a premium in 2024 as well; the Lobos won just 4 times last season, and oddsmakers have hung them with a 2½-win total this time around.
The good news – Can there really be any bad news for a team with a 2½-win total? – is Mendenhall did a good job reworking the roster through the transfer portal. How fast Mendenhall and his staff can synch up all the new faces remains to be seen.
Former BYU coach Bronco Mendenhall spoke with the media at length today about why he opted to come back to coaching, and why New Mexico, in particular. pic.twitter.com/FeFjLr59xL
— Sean Walker (@ActuallyDSW) July 11, 2024
Rivalry Notes
If you’re looking for any historical trends to help with the handicapping, you’re going to be disappointed. The only meeting between the Lobos and Bobcats took place in the 1947 Harbor Bowl in San Diego where they played to a 13-all final.
Montana State would leave D-1 in 1948, and has been competing in the NAIA, D-II and FCS divisions ever since.
Montana State Favored by 9-9½
It’s going to be a warm afternoon in Albuquerque, with the thermometer climbing as high as the mid-90s under sunny skies and a 12-18 mph blow from the west (crosswind).
There’s a lot to like about this Montana State team, but at the same time, the Bobcats have not beaten an FBS team the last 12 tries, the most recent in 2022 when Oregon State blew a pretty good Montana State team out, 68-28. As bad as New Mexico is, take the points.
SMU Mustangs vs. Nevada Wolf Pack
Saturday, August 24, 2024 – 8 PM ET at Mackay Stadium
Politics makes for strange bedfellows, as the saying goes, and some of the latest conference realignment is going to make for strange matchups in 2024…and beyond.
Southern Methodist taking on Nevada may not look weird, but seeing the Mustangs play an ACC schedule is going to take some getting used to. Rhett Lashlee and SMU are expected to get the new ear off on a winning note as 4-TD favorites against the Wolf Pack on the road.
Can Ponies Surprise 1st Year in ACC?
Following an 11-3 showing in Lashlee’s second season at the helm in Dallas, the Mustangs are capable of winning 10 with the returning talent plus some good hauls in the transfer portal.
Preston Stone and the offense rang up the 8th-highest scoring average in 2023, and the defense was vastly underrated. Both units have a chance to be better in 2024.
Nevada has a lot in common with New Mexico, and in fact, the Wolf Pack are expected to challenge the Lobos for the MWC cellar. Jeff Choate – most recently the DC at Texas and HC at Montana State before that – takes over a program off consecutive 2-10 seasons.
Mother Nature, Rivalry Notes & A Free Pick
There will still be 2+ hours of sunlight when this game boots in Reno, something to keep in mind. All signs point to temps in the upper-60s and partly cloudy skies.
These two programs spent a short bit together in the old WAC back at the turn of the century, meeting five times from 2000-04 with Nevada winning 3 of those. The last meeting was in the 2009 Hawaii Bowl, a 45-10 SMU rout with the Mustangs laying 10½.
Look for the Mustangs to win, but again, it’s too many points for a road team to be laying.
