Increasing the number of teams in the College Football Playoffs from four to 12 in 2024 will impact betting in a multitude of ways, but one thing will remain the same: the school seeded fifth is going to complain.
Of course, whether we hear the screams of injustice from No. 5 over the noise No. 13 is going to make after being the proverbial first team out of the expanded playoffs remains to be seen…and heard.
Yes, some things never change when it comes to humans feeling slighted, while other things always seem to change, like the BCS/CFP systems that have been used the last quarter-century or so. The latest changes will indeed impact college football betting at NCAAF betting sites, but it’s not as easy as saying action at top-rated sportsbooks will increase or decrease.
What are the Biggest Changes to CFP?
The most obvious change to the system is the addition of eight more schools to the bracket. Using the CFP rankings from last season following conference championships, this is how the schedule would have looked (per the NCAA):
- First Round Byes: 1. Michigan 2. Washington 3. Texas 4. Alabama
- 5. Florida St. vs. 12. Liberty
- 6. Georgia vs. No. 11 Ole Miss
- 7. Ohio St. vs. 10. Penn St.
- 8. Oregon vs. 9. Missouri
Under this scenario, the 5-8 seeds – Florida St, Georgia, Ohio St, Oregon – would have hosted their first-round matchups, and the winners of those four games would advance to play the respective top 4 seeds in a New Year’s Six matchup during the quarterfinals and semifinals.
Note that Liberty would have been seeded 12th on the basis the Flames were the sixth-highest-ranked conference champ. With the demise of the Pac-12, one of the most interesting bits of the CFP in 2024-25 will be which five conference champs make it into the mix.
Ticket revenue from the first-round matchups would be distributed across all conferences. Revenue from parking and concessions is still up in the air.
This sets up another school to complain about the seeding, and that would be the No. 9 slot who is bound to make a case why it should be hosting a first-round game.
Extra Playoff Rounds Come at a Cost
The impact of two extra rounds – 8 games – will mean more action at top sportsbooks. Playoffs are naturally more interesting to bettors since teams are playing for a title. Instead of three playoff games as in the past, there will now be 11.
Taking eight teams out of the normal bowl schedule, however, will only lead to a decrease of interest in the Pop Tarts Bowl or the Snoop Dee-Oh-Double-G Bowl, both from a ticket sales standpoint and wagering. There are only so many bettors eager to get down on a pair of 6-6 teams when a couple of 9-3 squads are squaring off.
And the 12-team format being put in place for 2024-25 could be short-lived with talk already about a quick boost to 16 teams. Call it collateral damage if you want, but the more teams in the playoffs and hosting early-round games, the fewer the neutral-site bowls.
Transfer Portal May Not Be as Crowded
Roughly one minute after the College Football Playoffs Selection Committee announced its lineup last December, there was a rush for the transfer portal.
Just like there are only so many fans who want to buy a ticket for a meaningless bowl game, fewer players want to bust their backsides playing in an exhibition game while four lucky rosters enjoy the thrill of playing for a championship. Each of the eight teams seeded 5-12 in the example from last season were playing their bowl games without impact starters.
Other than Florida State and Georgia fans, who was really interested in last year’s matchup between the Seminoles and Bulldogs in the Orange Bowl? With both teams in the mix for a title and with their full depth charts, that will change, especially for bettors.
Of Matters Pertaining to Longshots…
Let’s face it: since it started in 2014, the College Football Playoffs system has been boring. For 8 of the 10 seasons, the title game included Alabama, Georgia or Clemson, and five of those seasons it included two of those three.
Opening the path and giving more teams a chance to win it will increase interest among the fans, and especially among the recreational bettors who will be far more willing to make a $25 futures bet on their Liberty Flames, Boise State Broncos, James Madison Dukes and the like.
And that should go double for some of the ‘second tier’ teams in the SEC such as Ole Miss, or Kansas State in the Big 12. Those bettors should also realize that with the playoffs expanding, the futures odds will naturally decrease on long shots.
The shelf life of the system that will be implemented in 2024-25 could be short, as the one thing we’ve come to expect is constant tweaking. Still, there’s no question the changes will lead to an increase in wagering.
