The 2023 NFL season has proven to be a great one so far for those who like to bet the under on the total points scored in a game. Through Week 7, the under is 64-40-2 for a hit rate of 60.4%, or 62.3% if you are content with a push returning your stake to you.
You would have a great sense of how bad scoring has been if you just watched the last couple games each week in prime time. The under is 5-2 on Sunday nights. Even better, the under is 8-1 on Monday nights with only the Browns-Steelers game reaching 40 total points this year back in Week 2, and that needed a pair of defensive touchdowns by Pittsburgh to get that high.
But the top-rated NFL sportsbooks are usually quite good at setting these lines, so you should expect these numbers to regress and finish in a more normal range. The highest hit rate for unders in the 32-team era (since 2002) was 53.4% back in 2017, a season notorious for quarterback injuries and lacking in offense. In that same time, overs never did better than 54.5% (2010).
Vegas will adjust, and so should we. To help you with betting totals in the NFL the rest of the season, we wanted to identify what key numbers you should always be mindful of when placing your bets.
What Are the NFL’s Key Numbers?
When teams are playing so inconsistently like many are in 2023, you might find better value with betting on the total than you would the spread or moneyline. The total is simply how many points will be scored in the game by both teams combined, and you bet if that number will be over or under the pre-game line.
A push happens when the bookmaker’s total matches the game’s total, but you need not concern yourself with that. Only 1.6% of games in the 32-team era have ended in a push with the total.
In the NFL in the last 20 years, the most common total is 44 points, which is used by sportsbooks in roughly 5.5% of all games. From an oddsmaker’s perspective, this makes sense, because NFL teams usually average around 44 combined points per game. Plenty of games are going to fall under that number (ex. 23-20) and plenty will finish just above it (ex. 27-20).
As it turns out, 44 points scored is the most common total in NFL games in the last 20 years. Roughly 3.9% of NFL games end with exactly 44 points (think 24-20 and 27-17).
Now we know 44 is a key number for NFL totals, but what other numbers do sportsbooks love to use? We have identified the 6 numbers used most frequently for totals by oddsmakers. They all have been used in at least 4% of NFL games in the last 20 years, and we have that breakdown below:
- 44 points (5.5% of games)
- 45 points (4.4% of games)
- 43.5 points (4.3% of games)
- 41 points (4.2% of games)
- 43 points (4.1% of games)
- 47 points (4.1% of games)
We know 44 points is the most common number that a game ends with, but what other key numbers are there? We identified the 8 final point totals that have occurred in at least 3% of NFL games in the last 20 years, and we have that breakdown below:
- 44 points (3.9% of games)
- 41 points (3.8% of games)
- 37 points (3.7% of games)
- 51 points (3.7% of games)
- 40 points (3.4% of games)
- 43 points (3.4% of games)
- 47 points (3.2% of games)
- 33 points (3.1% of games)
It might be a little surprising to see this many games end with exactly 33 points in this era, but think of final scores like 20-13, 17-16, and it suddenly makes more sense why that is a key number. Likewise, 37 points is a very popular score for games that end 20-17.
Which point totals appeared on both lists we just made? That would be 44, 41, 43, and 47 points. Keep this in mind for the next section.
How to Use Key Numbers for NFL Total Bets
Now that we have some key numbers, the question is how to use this information when it comes to our bets on the total.
This is not as clear cut as the spread where we know most close games are going to end with a team winning by 3 or 7 points to denote a field goal or touchdown. So, if you like a 3-point favorite to cover the spread, you love to be able to get that team at -2.5 with the same odds or better with an alternate line before kickoff if you can. It makes it easier to hit as only a field goal difference will do now just like how -6.5 is preferable to -7.
The biggest one is -9.5 being way better than -10, since a 10-point favorite is usually going to have to win by 13 or more to cover that spread since point differentials of 11 and 12 are not that common.
For the total, the general strategy is you want to get under a key number when you are betting on the over, and you want to get over a key number when you are betting the under.
Examples
Let’s look at some of these key numbers and what’s happened in games over the last 20 years (2023 excluded). We said 44 points was the most used total and the most frequent outcome in a game’s final score.
- In games where the over/under is 43.5 points, the over hit 50.6% of the time.
- In games where the over/under is 44 points, the over hit 51.3% of the time.
- In games where the over/under is 44.5 points, the over hit 43.7% of the time.
That’s a big drop for overs when you get to 44.5, so if over is your bet, you’d rather be able to get it at 43.5 or 44 points. This is right on the league average for totals in most seasons, so it makes sense why we see this drop here. Only 46.8% of NFL games have at least 45 points scored, but it is 50.7% of games that have at least 44 points scored.
We see another good example at 41, our 2nd-biggest key number after 44 points.
- In games where the over/under is 40.5 points, the over hit 55.2% of the time.
- In games where the over/under is 41 points, the over hit 45.3% of the time.
- In games where the over/under is 41.5 points, the over hit 47.4% of the time.
That 55.2% over rate for 40.5 points is the highest among the 24 totals that are used most frequently by sportsbooks. Betting the over in a game with a total of 41 has been one of the worst bets.
But the key number with the worst upside all around for betting overs is 47 points:
- In games where the over/under is 46.5 points, the over hit 46.7% of the time.
- In games where the over/under is 47 points, the over hit 43.9% of the time.
- In games where the over/under is 47.5 points, the over hit 46.1% of the time.
With an above-average number of points expected to be scored, these games have largely been disappointments for overs no matter which number you adjust 47 points for. If the game was truly meant to be a shootout, the total should be closer to a key number of 51. If you see 47, think about the under.
Finally, if you are getting into shootout territory, the number you want to bet for the over is 50.5 (over hits 52.5% of the time). The numbers to avoid are 51 (45.4% on overs) and don’t even think about taking the over on 50 (39.2% over rate).
Remember, betting unders can be soul-crushing since you then have to watch the game and actively root for the offenses to stink so you can win. But in a season like 2023 where so many offenses are stinking, unders just might be the smart call until the offenses start showing more.
