As we venture into the second half of the 2023 NFL season, we are seeing some noticeable trends around the league in how teams are playing this year. The historic number of inexperienced quarterbacks this year is having an impact on what we are seeing from the offensive side of the ball.
This could be the kind of season where a non-quarterback like Miami’s Tyreek Hill could get serious MVP consideration if things continue the way they have been going.
Adjusting to this new offensive landscape should have a big impact on the way you bet this season. With so many different things to bet on in NFL games now, we wanted to highlight certain trending markets and why they might be the right choice to bet on to take advantage of what we are seeing this year for your bets at the top NFL sportsbooks.
Take the Under
Do you like scoring and exciting games? Then the 2023 NFL season may not be for you. Through Week 6, teams are scoring 21.7 points per game, continuing last year’s trend when scoring dropped to 21.9 points per game.
This is in line with scoring in 2017 (21.7), an offensively dull season that saw Case Keenum lead the league in passing efficiency metrics, Blake Bortles came a drive short of the Super Bowl, and Nick Foles won Super Bowl MVP months after Carson Wentz tore his ACL. Quarterback injuries doomed that season, and we have already seen some big ones this year with Aaron Rodgers (torn Achilles) and Anthony Richardson (shoulder surgery) out for the Jets and Colts.
There have only been 32 games this season where both teams scored at least 20 points, which is also how many there were in 2017 through Week 6. This is the lowest number of games where both teams scored 20 since 2014 (30).
If the scoring drops any more, and that usually happens when the weather gets colder, then this could be the lowest-scoring season since 2009 (21.5) or 2006 (20.7).
This lack of scoring has been great for betting the total to go under in a game. Through Week 6, the under is 57-35-1 (61.3%). Here is how that compares through Week 6 of every season since the new CBA was signed in 2011:
- 2023: 57-35-1 (61.3%)
- 2022: 57-36-1 (60.6%)
- 2021: 50-43-1 (53.2%)
- 2020: 43-47-1 (47.3%)
- 2019: 49-43 (53.3%)
- 2018: 42-51 (45.2%)
- 2017: 45-46 (49.5%)
- 2016: 41-51 (44.6%)
- 2015: 40-51 (44.0%)
- 2014: 41-48-2 (45.1%)
- 2013: 43-49 (46.7%)
- 2012: 43-45-3 (47.3%)
- 2011: 38-49-3 (42.2%)
The last 2 seasons have been great for unders. In fact, you have to go back to 1994, the very first year in the salary cap era, to find the last time unders hit better than 60% of the time through Week 6.
But remember, this is not likely going to continue the rest of the year as the oddsmakers catch up and start lowering the lines. Last season, the under finished hitting in 56% of games, which is still a higher edge than usual.
Also, the under was 12-2-1 in Week 6 as 9 teams won games without scoring 21 points, something that hasn’t happened in a week in the NFL since 1999. That’s even better than Week 1 this season when the under was 13-3. What happened in Week 2? The over was 13-3.
Regression to the mean is real. You still have to consider the matchups, but Week 7 could be a big week for overs as they fight back to give this season some life on offense.
Another thing to keep in mind is what’s happened in prime-time games as of late. They have been bad for scoring even going back to last year when the under was 34-19-2 (61.8%). Overall, the under is 14-7 (66.7%) in night games this season, including 7-1 for the under on Monday nights. That feels reassuring for 49ers-Vikings this week as Kirk Cousins tries to beat the 49ers, who are coming off a loss, without Justin Jefferson.
But as Thursday night between the Saints and Jaguars showed, Week 7 may be a great week for overs. The under had hit in 12 straight games for New Orleans before Thursday night’s 31-24 final.
First Touchdown Scorers
If you follow sports betting accounts on social media, chances are you saw some unbelievable first touchdown parlays that were hit in Week 6. A lot of studs were able to score the first touchdown in their game, including Christian McCaffrey (49ers), Cooper Kupp (Rams), Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions), and Jalen Hurts (Eagles).
The odds on parlays with first touchdown scorers can be huge since even a No. 1 wide receiver could be +900 to do it. If you parlay (or Round Robin) a couple of these together, it is easy to make the odds go wild.
Normally, these are not wise bets to make, but in a season where scoring is down so much, picking a touchdown scorer you like and making him the first touchdown scorer in the game may have more value than ever.
A couple bucks cannot hurt here given the odds offered by sportsbooks such as Bovada (Find out more with our Bovada Review) or Heritage Sports (Find out more with our Heritage Sports Review).
Rushing touchdowns are down to 0.8 per game, their lowest since 2017. More importantly, passing touchdowns are down to 1.3 per game, their lowest since 2008.
We just had Week 6 where no individual player caught 2 receiving touchdowns in any of the 15 games, something that has not happened in a regular season week in the NFL since the 2011 season. That adds some context to why you saw more of these bets hit than usual in Week 6. Touchdown scorers were scarce. If you nailed one, he had a better chance than usual of being the first.
With the way prime-time games have gone in 2023, forget trying to predict multiple touchdown scorers, or a touchdown scorer from each team. Give more thought to who the first touchdown scorer will be instead.
Comeback Player of the Year
NFL player awards are always fun to bet on, but in the preseason, the league’s oddest award had one heavy favorite. Damar Hamlin of the Buffalo Bills was getting odds in the -500 to -350 range this summer to win Comeback Player of the Year after his return from a serious cardiac arrest event on the field last season.
Hamlin was the heavy favorite, but there was always concern about how much he’d even play this season. Other worthy candidates like Tua Tagovailoa had odds in the +2000 range, so that looked like good value going into Week 1.
Sure enough, Hamlin has been a healthy scratch in most games this season, only playing in the Miami game in Week 4. He played 18 snaps on special teams but none on defense as the Bills are deeper at safety this year. Injuries to safety in 2022 are why Hamlin was starting in the first place.
The odds for Hamlin continue to decrease and he is down to -150 at BetOnline (Find out more with our BetOnline Review). Meanwhile, Tagovailoa (+300) continues to gain ground to win Comeback Player of the Year. He has done a great job in returning from multiple concussions last year, and he was another player we had to watch get taken off the field in Cincinnati to the local hospital.
The Dolphins are having a good start to this year, and it feels like Mike McDaniel is a strong candidate for Coach of the Year, and Tyreek Hill is a favorite for Offensive Player of the Year and maybe even MVP if he has the first 2,000-yard receiving season.
The speed of the Dolphins is unmatched, and that could lead to voters passing by Tagovailoa for MVP but rewarding him as the Comeback Player of the Year. It is not disrespectful to Hamlin to pick someone else, because if a player is not playing week after week, then it is hard to justify why he should win it.
The other awards are mostly up for grabs among multiple players going into Week 7, but Tagovailoa for Comeback Player of the Year presents some of the best value out there.
Sack Props
With so many quarterbacks lacking in experience and having more mobility than they know what to do with, we are seeing sacks on the rise for defenses. The sack rate is 7.2% in the 2023 season, which would be the first time a season cracked 7.0% since 1998 (7.2%).
We can blame a chunk of this on Sam Howell, the Washington quarterback who is on pace for 96 sacks, which would shatter the NFL record for a season held by David Carr (76 for the 2002 Texans). Meanwhile, the quarterback Washington offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy left in Kansas City, Patrick Mahomes, has the lowest sack rate in the league this year (2.6%).
But 5 quarterbacks in 2023 currently have a sack rate above 10.0%, an abysmal number:
- Deshaun Watson, Browns – 10.5%
- Ryan Tannehill, Titans – 10.7%
- Justin Fields, Bears – 12.9%
- Sam Howell, Commanders – 13.7%
- Daniel Jones, Giants – 15.6%
It probably is not a coincidence that 4-of-5 quarterbacks listed here are currently injured. But there is also an imbalance between great pass rushers and great pass protectors. Just think of the pass-rushing talent in the league right now with T.J. Watt, Nick Bosa, Micah Parsons, Aaron Donald, Myles Garrett, Maxx Crosby, Chris Jones, Haason Reddick, Aidan Hutchinson, Josh Allen (Jacksonville defender), etc.
The best offensive tackles cannot compete with that group, especially since the list is going to get rough after you get past Trent Williams, Lane Johnson, and Tyron Smith (when healthy).
Through Week 6, there have already been 91 offensive performances where a team allowed 3 sacks. That is the most in the 32-team era since 2002 as the average has been 70.8 games where an offense allowed 3-plus sacks through Week 6.
Through Week 6, there have already been 57 offensive performances where a team allowed 4 sacks. That is also the most since 2002, and it was only 29 such games in 2021. The average is 39.3 for a season since 2002, so this is up considerably as well.
Whether you are betting on individual defenders to notch sacks or team props involving sacks, keep the over in mind. Maybe way over if your defense is playing Howell or Fields or the Giants.
It’s not just the team that gets the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft that will want Caleb Williams, the USC quarterback. We may need him and a few more gifted passers in the next couple of drafts to restore some order and give us better offensive football. Things are a struggle right now in 2023.
Bet accordingly.
