Top NFL Pick: First NFL Head Coach Fired in 2025 – Brian Daboll (+400) at BetOnline (check our BetOnline Review)
While being an NFL head coach may sound like a dream job, it can quickly turn into a nightmare with the wrong team in a bad situation. Some NFL owners are also opting for a quick hook as we’ve seen a coach go “one-and-done” like Antonio Pierce (Raiders) and Jerod Mayo (Patriots) last year.
The NFL may still not have as quick of a hook as the NBA for coaches, but you have to go back to 2006 to find the last time all 32 coaches made it through a full season, excluding any interim situations like the 2012 Saints when Sean Payton was suspended for the entire year. Someone has been fired during the season in every year since 2013.
You may not be surprised to hear that top NFL betting sites like BetOnline have a betting market on which NFL coach will be the 1st to get fired during the 2025 season, which is almost certain to happen to at least one of these poor individuals.
Last year, Robert Saleh of the Jets got the fast hook after a 2-3 start in his 4th year on the job. Dennis Allen (Saints) and Matt Eberflus (Bears) were also fired during the season.
Most of the time, when a coach gets fired during the season, it’s someone with a few seasons on the job, though we have seen coaches fired during their 1st season like Urban Meyer (2021 Jaguars) and Frank Reich (2023 Panthers).
With that in mind, let’s look at the top 8 candidates with odds +1000 or better from BetOnline for the 1st coach to be fired in 2025. When I did this list last summer, my top choices were Saleh, Eberflus, and Allen, so that worked out well, just not for them.
1 Brian Daboll, New York Giants (+400 at BetOnline)
Reasons for the Hot Seat: While Brian Daboll won a Coach of the Year award and playoff game in 2022, it’s also become painfully obvious that he rode that 6-1 start with close wins and the fact that the 2022 Vikings were the only defense Daniel Jones could shred to aid his success. The Giants have been bad to rotten in the games since, so Daboll is on the hot seat for sure in New York.
The Giants drafted quarterback Jaxson Dart in the 1st round, but they’ll likely try to start the season with Russell Wilson or Jameis Winston before turning things over to Dart, which may not happen until 2026. It may also happen with a different coach than Daboll if things go south in a hurry this season.
Checking the schedule is always a good idea here:
- The Giants are on the road against Washington with the great Jayden Daniels and a Dallas team with a healthy Dak Prescott, who has owned this team for years.
- Week 3 is hosting the Kansas City Chiefs, a team that rarely loses to bad teams.
- Week 4 is hosting the Los Angeles Chargers, another AFC playoff team from last year with better quarterback play, coaching, and defense than the Giants.
- Week 5 is a winnable trip to New Orleans, but if the Giants are 0-5 after losing that one, then watch out.
For that matter, even if the Giants pull out a win in New Orleans, they’ll also face the Eagles twice and the Broncos right after that start. The 49ers (Week 9) and Bears (Week 10) also expect to be stronger this year with health and new coaching in Chicago.
Unless Russ is ready to cook like it is 2019 again, this could get very ugly very fast. That’s why the odds are against Daboll coming back for 2026, and it’s why the odds are in his favor that he’s the 1st coach fired in 2025.
2 Mike McDaniel, Miami Dolphins (+500 at BetOnline)
Reasons for the Hot Seat: While Mike McDaniel has a winning record (28-23) after 3 seasons in Miami, there have been some diminishing returns with his offense, and he has shown a total inability to beat good teams on the road. Miami may have seen enough if the Dolphins continue on a 25th-straight season without a playoff win.
But would owner Stephen Ross sign off on an early firing? That would probably take an embarrassing 0-5 type of start against the following schedule:
- Week 1 at Colts: McDaniel lost 16-10 in Indy (without Tua Tagovailoa) last year, so anything is possible here.
- Week 2 vs. Patriots: A team expected to be on the rise with Drake Maye in his 2nd season and the return of Mike Vrabel to the coaching ranks.
- Week 3 at Bills (TNF): Josh Allen and the Bills simply have this team’s number with 6 straight wins.
- Week 4 vs. Jets (MNF): Another loss in prime time, another loss at home to an AFC East rival and the hot seat will intensify.
- Week 5 at Panthers: Maybe a team on the rise with Dave Canales and Bryce Young, this would be another tough loss to take.
The 6th game is against the Chargers and Jim Harbaugh, so there is definitely a timeline here where it could happen to McDaniel in his 4th season if they start this poorly.
3 Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts (+600 at BetOnline)
Reasons for the Hot Seat: The Colts are .500 in Shane Steichen’s 2 seasons, and they haven’t made the playoffs since 2020. They may have the least promising quarterback situation in the league with Anthony Richardson trying to win the job over Daniel Jones, and they have a shaky ownership situation after owner Jim Irsay died in May.
If Richardson falters again, the Colts could be looking at another lost season. This team didn’t exactly handle the Frank Reich situation the best in 2022, leading to hiring Jeff Saturday who had no prior coaching experience to be their replacement.
The early schedule isn’t that daunting as none of the Colts’ first 10 opponents won more than 11 games last year. In fact, the only elite team they face all year is the Chiefs after their bye in Week 12.
But if the Colts are losing home games to the Dolphins, Raiders, Cardinals, and Titans, then it’s at least possible that Steichen won’t be around by November.
4 Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns (+650 at BetOnline)
Reasons for the Hot Seat: Kevin Stefanski is a 2-time AP NFL Coach of the Year (2020, 2023), but the Browns are projected for a last-place finish again after a 3-14 season, and he may get some heat if he starts a 40-year-old Joe Flacco over the young quarterbacks in Cleveland.
There’s some potential with this one when you see the Browns start the season with the Bengals, Ravens, Packers, Lions, Vikings, and Steelers. That could be 0-6 if Joe Flacco looks like the quarterback he did in Indianapolis in 2024 instead of the guy who was slinging it off the couch for Stefanski in 2023.
Stefanski may also be in hot water with the brass, as he probably isn’t the biggest fan of having Deshaun Watson forced on him as his quarterback in 2022, as the offense has performed better with the other quarterbacks. He also may not want to get involved with the Shedeur Sanders hype after the Colorado prospect infamously fell to the 5th round after he was projected as a top 10 pick.
Stefanski is a good coach, but getting out of Cleveland – as fast as possible – may be a blessing for his future.
5 Jonathan Gannon, Arizona Cardinals (+700 at BetOnline)
Reasons for the Hot Seat: A bit of a surprise name, Jonathan Gannon had to deal with Kyler Murray missing half of 2023 to recover from his torn ACL, but the team did double its win total in an 8-9 finish last year in Year 2 on the job.
Expectations are going to be higher this year with the investments this team has made around Murray on offense, including drafting Marvin Harrison Jr. last year and making Trey McBride the highest-paid tight end in NFL history.
The only way this one makes sense is if the Cardinals have a really poor start as they open with the Saints, Panthers, and Titans in the first 5 games alone. If they’re 0-5 or 1-4 with that kind of schedule, there could be hell to pay for Gannon.
But this team should be on the rise instead of taking steps backwards in 2025.
6 Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals (+800 at BetOnline)
Reasons for the Hot Seat: Frankly, there’s no coach on this list that has more of a “he’s getting fired if they miss the playoffs in 2025” situation than Zac Taylor in Cincinnati after missing the playoffs in back-to-back years. Now the team is paying for the most expensive wide receiver duo in NFL history, and it can’t even make its top pass rusher (Trey Hendrickson) and 1st-round pick (Shemar Stewart) happy with their financial situations.
Taylor is playing a dangerous game as he’s always seemed to rely on elite offensive talent to lead the way, and it was coordinator Lou Anarumo’s defense that really made the timely plays during their playoff runs in 2021-22. Anarumo was fired this year, but the Bengals didn’t do a lot to add to the defensive personnel.
Taylor will almost certainly be fired if the Bengals miss the playoffs again, but the good news is he’s unlikely to be the 1st coach fired since the Bengals should start better. Slow starts have doomed them in past years, but they’ll see the Browns, Jaguars, and Vikings in the first 3 games, so they need to start 3-0 or at least 2-1 this year.
The schedule should, at least temporarily, be Taylor’s savior from not being the 1st coach fired.
7 Dave Canales, Carolina Panthers (+900 at BetOnline)
Reasons for the Hot Seat: The Panthers are desperate to see some wins after 6 straight seasons with double-digit losses. They paid a hefty price to trade up for No. 1 pick Bryce Young in 2023, so if Dave Canales can’t get him going in this offense in their 2nd year together, it could be a quick hook for an unstable team that fired Frank Reich early in 2023 during his 1st season.
The good news for Canales is that Young showed some improvement after an early benching in 2024. The Panthers hung tough with the Chiefs and Eagles, the Super Bowl teams. This year, they added some weapons around Young; they should have a better running game, and the early schedule has 7 straight teams who failed to post a winning record in 2024.
Another coach who should be saved by the schedule from getting an early axe.
8 Brian Callahan, Tennessee Titans (+1000 at BetOnline)
Reasons for the Hot Seat: The Titans seem prepared to take things slowly with Brian Callahan, but it certainly wasn’t an encouraging rookie season after the team regressed to a 3-14 record in a weak division.
The good thing about a 3-14 record is you get the No. 1 overall pick and a chance to draft quarterback Cam Ward. But expectations are low in 2025, and outside of beating the Colts, it’s hard to see where the wins are coming from early for this team unless Ward does his best 2023 C.J. Stroud or 2024 Jayden Daniels impersonation.
Still, the low expectations in Tennessee likely help Callahan avoid an early guillotine in Year 2.
Conclusion: Best Picks for the 1st NFL Coach Fired in 2025
Even if you take a look at some of the longshots for this market, including Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco (+1600), Todd Bowles in Tampa Bay (+2200), and Kevin O’Connell in Minnesota (+4000), nothing feels realistic about any of these teams uprooting the success they’ve had or potential they have with these coaches.
The correct coach has to be one of the 8 we just covered, and based on season projections, we’re ruling out Taylor (Bengals) and Gannon (Cardinals) for their teams expected to be better this year.
The rest are fair game, but Daboll does stand out as the best choice when you consider the murderer’s row that is his schedule. Russell Wilson throwing moon balls to Malik Nabers might steal a game from someone, but if it’s the Russ of 2022-24, then consider this team already cooked.
However, I’d bet some shares on Stefanski seeing things go sour in Cleveland with the quarterback situation, and the Colts should not be trusted to show stability or loyalty either to Steichen and his difficult quarterback predicament.
Several of these coaches are not looking promising to make it to 2026, but only one can go down as the 1st coach fired this season. We’ll take Daboll for that title, but Steichen and Stefanski aren’t far behind.
Top NFL Pick: First NFL Head Coach Fired in 2025 – Brian Daboll (+400) at BetOnline
