Latest NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award Odds

No award in the NFL generates more stranger discussion than the Comeback Player of the Year. Is it supposed to go to a player who was injured and came back to play very well, or does the magnitude of the injury they came back from outweigh how well they played? 

Can you still win it for being bad at your job and now suddenly you’re not? Drew Brees did that in 2004 when he had his breakout season with the Chargers.

It’s a difficult award market but predicting the winner in 2024 can’t be any more difficult or fruitless as it proved to be in 2023.

Let’s look back at what happened last year and what to make of the leading candidates for NFL Comeback Player of the Year according to the latest odds from top NFL sportsbooks.

Top Contenders

Joe Flacco Upsets Damar Hamlin in 2023 for Comeback Player of the Year

In 2023, Buffalo safety Damar Hamlin was possibly the heaviest favorite you’ll ever see for an NFL award before Week 1. He had -500 odds at some sportsbooks to take home Comeback Player of the Year after we watched him lay unresponsive on the field for many minutes in January 2023 in a game against the Bengals.

Hamlin’s story captivated the world, and fortunately, he was able to make a full recovery and returned to action with the Bills.

When I wrote about the 2023 Comeback Player of the Year odds last summer, I meant no disrespect towards Hamlin, but he was never a good value pick for the simple reason that he wasn’t expected to see the field in Buffalo’s defense. How can you give someone the Comeback Player of the Year award if they don’t play?

His return to the field was going to be an incredible accomplishment in its own right, but that was likely going to be the peak of his 2023 season unless the Bills had injuries at safety like they did in 2022 to move Hamlin into that position in the first place.

As it turned out, Hamlin made his debut in Week 4 against Miami when he played 18 special teams snaps and none on defense. He ended up playing 5 games, 17 defensive snaps, and made 2 tackles.

Hamlin’s odds continued to get longer as the season wore on, but he was still a favorite in a season better known for new injuries than players returning from one.

The Final Vote: A Controversial Decision

In the end, Hamlin still received 21 of the 50 1st-place votes for the award to lead all players. However, due to ranked voting, he lost the award to Cleveland quarterback Joe Flacco, who only had 13 1st-place votes.

But since so many people had Flacco as their No. 2 choice and the people who didn’t vote Hamlin No. 1 either left Hamlin off their ballot or placed him much lower, Flacco finished with 151 vote points to beat Hamlin’s 140.

An Unexpected Winner

It was a weird race to follow as Flacco had +2000 odds even during the middle of his run in December. But not even Nostradamus could have predicted a Flacco win for this award in the summer of 2023. Flacco wasn’t even on an NFL roster.

The Browns signed him in late November after Deshaun Watson had season-ending surgery, and he soon took over the starting job and played very well. In fact, he was the only quarterback last season to have 5 straight games with 250 passing yards and multiple touchdowns. He threw a lot of interceptions too, which ended up costing him in the playoff loss in Houston, but he won the award on the strength of a handful of games.

A look back at Joe Flacco’s Comeback Player Of The Year campaign with the Browns 🔥 pic.twitter.com/U1wIt8yxLR

— Football’s Greatest Moments (@FBGreatMoments) August 26, 2024

After the controversial award, the NFL issued new guidelines on what the Comeback Player of the Year award should be about:

“The spirit of the AP Comeback Player of the Year Award is to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season.”

Basically, they want to focus more on players who were starters and missed time, likely for health-related reasons, and came back to play well. At least that’s my interpretation of this.

Which Quarterback to Back in 2024?

Let’s hope for a much closer, normal race for the award in 2024. At least we have a good inkling that it will be a quarterback for the 7th year in a row. The top 6 odds leaders for the award at BetOnline are all quarterbacks:

• Aaron Rodgers, Jets (+180) – Tore his Achilles on opening night
• Joe Burrow, Bengals (+250) – Calf injury to start 2023, then season-ending wrist surgery
• Kirk Cousins, Falcons (+500) – Tore his Achilles during the middle of the season
• Anthony Richardson, Colts (+750) – Left 3 games with injuries before season-ending shoulder surgery
• Sam Darnold, Vikings (+1000) – New starter in Minnesota with rookie J.J. McCarthy sidelined; hasn’t been a full-time starter in years
• Kyler Murray, Cardinals (+1600) – He already had his ACL recovery take up half of his 2023 before he returned to start

Under the new guidelines, it would seem that Murray shouldn’t be a factor given he already made his return in 2023, making him more of a rational pick for last year’s award rather than this year.

We’re also going to fade Darnold as that feels like the Geno Smith situation, the 2022 winner who got his shot to start after Russell Wilson was traded and he just ran with it after being a backup for years. Are we really going to do some déjà vu with a failed Jets starter? I will say there might be some value to throwing Darnold into a futures parlay with things you feel more confident about, but it’s unlikely he plays well enough to outlast these other quarterbacks coming back from injury.

As for the non-quarterbacks, Cleveland running back Nick Chubb (+2000) has the best odds and might be the best choice too if you’re going that route. He’s a great player and that was a nasty leg injury he suffered in Week 2. The problem is Chubb is starting the 2024 season on PUP, meaning he will miss at least 4 games, and it could extend weeks beyond that too.

Does Having Better Stats Matter More Than Anything for Quarterbacks?

When multiple quarterbacks are in the running for the award, has the one with the better stats that year prevailed? That’s hard to say based on recent history.

In 2018, Andrew Luck (Colts) was the runaway winner with 44 votes after he missed the entire 2017 season with a shoulder injury the team was cryptic about. The only other vote-getters were defensive end J.J. Watt (4) and running back Adrian Peterson (2).

In 2019, Ryan Tannehill (Titans) edged out Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers) by a super tight margin of 16-15 votes. Both had very good stats, and Garoppolo did it over a full season while Tannehill replaced Marcus Mariota and helped the Titans reach the playoffs. Maybe the surprise factor in Tannehill doing it off the bench and playing so much better than Mariota helped him, but this one was so close.

Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers) came back in 2020 from a very serious elbow surgery that was rare for a quarterback, and he played very well in leading the Steelers to an 11-0 start. He certainly played better than Alex Smith (Washington), but Smith returned to football after nearly losing his leg in a gruesome injury in 2018, so he won the award instead that year with 49-of-50 votes.

Close Contests

In 2021, the stats were quite close between Joe Burrow (Bengals) and Dak Prescott (Cowboys) after both suffered bad leg injuries in 2020. But Burrow edged out Prescott 28-21 for the award. That might have been a case of leading the Bengals to the playoffs, a rare sight.

In 2022, Geno Smith received 28 of the 50 1st-place votes to win the award. The only other quarterback to get a single 1st-place vote was Detroit’s Jared Goff, who finished No. 6 in the voting with 15 total points. He wasn’t coming back from injury, but neither was Smith, who had better stats and made the Pro Bowl that year.

As mentioned above, we’re not sure 2023 is a normal case study to ever use again. Flacco (13) wasn’t the only quarterback to receive 1st-place votes as so did Baker Mayfield (10), Tua Tagovailoa (4), Brock Purdy (1), and Matthew Stafford (1). You could argue all those players had superior stats over Flacco, but he got the nod for the bizarre story of coming off the couch around Thanksgiving to lead the team to the playoffs.

So, stats may not outweigh the narrative you can concoct around your season, or perhaps even your popularity matters. A lot of media people tend to denigrate the Dallas quarterback (Prescott in 2021), and many also had it out for Roethlisberger throughout his career for various reasons.

That could add an extra layer of intrigue to the 2024 race given the heel turn Aaron Rodgers, the odds-on favorite, has done in recent years.

The Achilles Brothers: Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins

This year’s Comeback Player of the Year award could very well come down to which old quarterback on a new team plays better after an Achilles tear. Aaron Rodgers is the odds-on favorite at BetOnline with +180 odds and new Atlanta quarterback Kirk Cousins is in 3rd place with +500 odds.

Both teams have playoff expectations this year as their team’s odds show. The Falcons may have the easier path by being in the NFC South and the NFC in general, but winning the AFC East back for the Jets would almost certainly make this award a slam dunk for Rodgers, who has never won the award before.

Rodgers should have better weapons overall around him than Cousins has in Atlanta, but he’s a higher risk since he turns 41 in December, he had his worst season in 2022, and it has just been a longer time since we’ve seen him play at a high level. But if he’s still the Rodgers of old, then he is likely going to outperform Cousins, who has likely peaked in the NFL. We know what we’re getting from him. Rodgers still at least has that potential for MVP-caliber play, and again, his advanced age and doing it for the Jets of all teams will only further add to his case.

Can Joe Burrow Win the Award Twice?

The Comeback Player of the Year award is not necessarily something you want to win once, let alone twice in your career. That means things had to go really wrong before they got better again.

So far, quarterback Chad Pennington is the only player to win the award twice, doing so for the 2006 Jets and 2008 Dolphins. Pennington had a bad habit where he was injured in odd-numbered years (2003, 2005, 2007, and 2009) and played well and made the playoffs in even-numbered years (2002, 2004, 2006, and 2008).

Burrow’s Injury History

Burrow is going to have to prove he can stay healthy after ending 2-of-4 seasons on injured reserve to start his NFL career. He tore his ACL as a rookie, and then last year it was the calf early, then after that cleared up, he injured his wrist against the Ravens.

Burrow is no doubt a media darling, earning an absurdly high reputation for the Bengals’ deep playoff runs in 2021-22 even though his play was never up to the level of reputation he’s garnered. Even this week, insiders again ranked Burrow as the No. 2 quarterback in the NFL after Patrick Mahomes despite his poor start last year in another injury-plagued season.

Quarterback Tiers have arrived.

NFL personnel weigh in on 30 veteran signal callers, ranking them in the process.

And this year featured the fewest Tier 1 QBs since 2016. More, from @SandoNFL ⤵️

— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) August 26, 2024

So, it would not be a shock if Burrow won the award again by staying healthy and playing well. However, his injury was not as serious as an Achilles, and he’s not trying to get the Jets to end a 13-year playoff drought like Rodgers, he’s not trying to end a 6-year playoff drought for the Falcons like Cousins, and he doesn’t have the element of surprise that Anthony Richardson has in Indianapolis.

It’s also not clear if Burrow is poised for a huge season. He lost his offensive coordinator (Brian Callahan), his running back (Joe Mixon), and his big slot receiver (Tyler Boyd). He still has an outstanding wide receiver duo in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, but the cupboard is getting a bit bare in Cincinnati depth-wise.

I wouldn’t rank Burrow higher than the 4th-best value in this market.

Can Anthony Richardson Win It?

You should give some real thought to Anthony Richardson winning this award over the veterans. He already had shoulder surgery as a rookie after he was injured on a running play for the 3rd time in 4 career games.

That gives him major red flags for injury concerns, but if he does stay healthy, we saw coach Shane Steichen do impressive things with this offense that had a lot of backups playing last year. We only saw Richardson play 2 snaps with running back Jonathan Taylor. Richardson has a real chance to run the ball over 100 times and pick up a lot of touchdowns that way. He should also have better wide receivers than the Colts had last year as Josh Downs is no longer a rookie and they added Adonai Mitchell from Texas.

His injuries worry you, but maybe he was just unlucky in 2023 and will learn to protect himself better this year.

2. QB Anthony Richardson (IND): 1st drive: 7/8 passes for 65 yards and a TD. If he can dial in with his passing like this, add in the elite rushing upside, and it’s zero surprise that he is finding himself as the 6th QB drafted overall! Watch out! 👀 💪 pic.twitter.com/sYTuu1dZPu

— Joshua Cho (@jbchoknows) August 26, 2024

Most Likely Winner?

I think Rodgers, Richardson, Cousins, and Burrow all have some value for this award. A quarterback should win it again as there are simply too many good options with compelling cases and narratives to spin, and they are still the most important position.

But if you only get to pick one player to win the 2024 NFL Comeback Player of the Year, the smart bet is still on Aaron Rodgers. Ending that playoff drought with the Jets, and perhaps ending their more than 50-year drought without a 4,000-yard passer would be a huge deal for him.

We know he has the talent to do it and the story writes itself. Now we just have to see him last more than 4 snaps for the Jets. At the very least, we know Joe Flacco isn’t winning this year’s award even if Richardson gets injured again in Indy.

NFL Pick: 2024-25 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Winner – Aaron Rodgers (+180) at BetOnline