The 2024 NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds have a leading candidate who has yet to win the award in Dallas’ Micah Parsons, who is +500 at BetOnline (check our BetOnline Review). Could this be his year?
The usual suspects of contenders join him at the top, including Nick Bosa and T.J. Watt. However, a player we won’t be seeing in 2024 is the great Aaron Donald. He retired this offseason and was a 3-time Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) winner.
This award loves a repeat winner as that has happened 8 times. Yet, last year’s winner, Cleveland’s Myles Garrett (+750), is only 5th in odds at top-rated sportsbooks.
Let’s break down the 2024 NFL DPOY race from what stands out for voters, the favorites and some longshots to consider at the NFL betting sites.
Trends for NFL Defensive Player of the Year Winners
The Associated Press has voted on the DPOY award every year since 1971, and we have picked up on some important trends for the winners. You might think with how volatile defense is in the NFL, we would see some great variation in the winners.
However, that is not the case. Not only have there been 8 repeat winners, but Aaron Donald and J.J. Watt have each won it 3 times in recent years.
In honor of Aaron Donald retiring here’s his DPOY highlights 🔥 absolute monster. pic.twitter.com/E6B6QARtu8
— Con (@DaConstrict) March 15, 2024
This award is dominated by elite defenders on elite defenses. It would be very hard to build a DPOY campaign if you are stuck on a bad defense or not already established in the league as a star. Since 2014, 9-of-10 winners of the DPOY award ranked in the top 5 odds (all +1400 or better) going into Week 1.
The only recent longshot winner was Stephon Gilmore on the 2019 Patriots, and he was +8000. Gilmore had a big postseason and Super Bowl performance the previous year to help the Patriots win another title, so his stock was at an all-time high that year. He ended up receiving 21 votes, edging out Chandler Jones (14) and T.J. Watt (10).
A big reason for Gilmore having +8000 odds was he played corner, a position that rarely wins this award. Here is the positional breakdown for the 53 DPOY winners since 1971:
- 17 linebackers
- 15 defensive ends
- 10 defensive tackles
- 6 corners
- 5 safeties
If we wanted to break that down for more modern times with the prevalence of edge rushers covering both defensive ends and outside linebackers, then this is the breakdown for the 53 winners:
- 23 edge rushers
- 11 defensive backs
- 10 defensive tackles
- 9 inside/middle linebackers
Those defensive tackles were largely there to get after the quarterback too when you’re talking about Donald, Warren Sapp and Dana Stubblefield (15 sacks in 1997). That means 33 of the 53 winners (62.3%) were primarily there to rush the passer.
Nine of the last 10 winners have been edge rushers or Aaron Donald. We have to focus on the edge rushers first for this award almost to the point of how we view MVP as a quarterback award.
Aaron Donald agrees that #Steelers LB T.J. Watt should have won DPOY more times than once:
“I felt like he should’ve won a couple more Defensive Player of the Year Awards, he kind of got snubbed a couple times, I ain’t gonna lie.”
Via: Aaron Donald/YT pic.twitter.com/GmanGSSvQP
— Steelersonly (@steelersonlyy) March 24, 2024
Being on a Good Team Is a Huge Advantage
It is hard to get recognition as an elite defender on a bad defense, which is usually going to be part of a bad team overall. Just ask Maxx Crosby for his time with the Raiders.
However, it is surprising just how much playing for a winning team and being part of a good defense matters for this award. You don’t need to play for the best defense in the league, but you better be on a top-10 unit, and you almost need to make the playoffs to win this award now.
Myles Garrett is proof of that, as he only won it for the 1st time after years of lobbying after Cleveland returned to the playoffs in 2023 with an 11-6 record. The Browns allowed the fewest yards in the league last year.
Garrett’s win just adds to the recent trends with this award:
- Since 2002, 19-of-22 DPOY winners (86.4%) were on a playoff team.
- Since 2002, 21-of-22 DPOY winners (95.5%) played for a team with a winning record that year.
- Since 1988, 31-of-36 DPOY winners (86.1%) were on a playoff team.
- Since 1988, 33-of-36 DPOY winners (91.7%) played for a team with a winning record that year.
Jason Taylor is the only defender in the 32-team era to win DPOY on a losing team. His 2006 Dolphins finished 6-10 despite having a quality defense with Taylor leading the way.
Jason Taylor’s HOF resume:
– 6x Pro Bowl
– 3x 1st Team All-Pro, 2001 2nd Team
– 2006 NFL DPOY, 2x AFC DPOY
– 2002 NFL SK Leader
– 2000s All-Decade Team
– Most TD (8) by a DL in NFL history
pic.twitter.com/No1V798VYc— Pro Sports Outlook (@PSO_Sports) September 2, 2021
Anyone on a below-average defense and losing team has essentially no shot at winning DPOY.
The 2024 Contenders for NFL Defensive Player of the Year
Let’s break down the contenders in this year’s race.
We’ll be looking at the 5 defenders with odds better than +1200, a few 2nd-tier longshots, the part of the field to fade entirely and our favorite longshot.
Micah Parsons, Dallas Cowboys: The Favorite (+500)
Parsons has had a great 3-year start to his career. However, he keeps coming up short for the DPOY award. He finished 2nd in 2021, 2nd in 2022 and 3rd in 2023. Last year, he received 89 vote points to finish behind Myles Garrett (165) and T.J. Watt (140).
Parsons had 14 sacks, the same as Garrett, but his only multi-sack games were against the lowly Panthers and Jets early in the season. He only forced 1 fumble all season too. The Cowboys as a team loved to beat up on bad competition last year. Parsons had almost no noteworthy plays in games against the 49ers, Bills and Lions.
This is your daily reminder that #Cowboys Micah Parsons is an animal and pulled off an NBA cross-over against the Jets last year.
His pressure on Wilson resulted in an interception for Dallas—a force of nature.#DallasCowboys pic.twitter.com/QdNSB5MneQ
— Brandon Loree (@Brandoniswrite) May 15, 2024
The Cowboys let go of defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, but they did replace him with a veteran in Mike Zimmer who should understand how to use his pass-rushing stud. If Parsons can step up with his best season yet, that might be enough to get him over the hump for this award.
T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh Steelers (+650) vs. Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns (+750)
Let the NFL’s best defensive division rivalry continue as Watt and Garrett are battling it out again to see who can win their 2nd DPOY award.
Honestly, this feels like the NFL’s version of Nikola Jokic vs. Joel Embiid. Watt is the better, more productive player, but voters seem to be getting tired of awarding him even though he’s only won DPOY once. Watt’s led the NFL in sacks in 3-of-4 seasons since 2020.
Meanwhile, Garrett has publicly complained about never winning DPOY, much like Embiid did in the NBA for the MVP award. They finally gave Embiid an MVP and he blew it in the playoffs while we watched Jokic win a championship.
When T.J. Watt PANCAKED Joe Burrow pic.twitter.com/N87hUdFTYo
— Steelersonly (@steelersonlyy) May 4, 2024
Neither Watt nor Garrett impressed in last year’s playoffs as both were bounced in the wild card round with Josh Allen and C.J. Stroud shredding their defenses.
Best to fade Garrett from repeating, but Watt is always worth a look for this award. You fear his durability more than anything about his ability.
Nick Bosa, San Francisco 49ers: The 2022 Winner (+700 at BetOnline)
Despite the 49ers reaching the Super Bowl again, Nick Bosa took a step back from his 2022 season that won him his only DPOY award. He dropped in sacks (18.5 to 10.5), quarterback hits (48 to 35) and in pressures (56 to 44).
He has the talent to bounce back with a big season, but we’ll see how the 49ers fare after another coordinator change, and they let go of longtime lineman Arik Armstead.
Maxx Crosby, Las Vegas Raiders: New Look for Raiders? (+700 at BetOnline)
The Raiders are clearly looking to transform into a defensive-driven team under coach Antonio Pierce, and Maxx Crosby is his best player.
He’s led the NFL in tackles for loss in each of the last 2 years. He also had a career-high 14.5 sacks last season and finished 4th in DPOY voting with 21 points.
MAXX CROSBY SAFETY CLINCHES THE RAIDERS W 😤
(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/Wo0rnaDg0d— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) October 15, 2023
If the Raiders can bring some defensive intensity and pull off a winning season behind a career year from Crosby, then he has a shot at this. But just remember, the Raiders were only 8-9 last year, missed the playoffs and the defense was 9th in points and 15th in yards.
Playing in the AFC West makes it very tough for Crosby’s team to have a winning record and even harder to make the playoffs.
The Young Pass Rushers on the Rise
Here are the odds from BetOnline for a couple of high draft picks in the last few years:
- Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit Lions (+1200)
- Will Anderson Jr., Houston Texans (+2500)
Hutchinson’s Lions reached the NFC Championship Game last year but that was mostly thanks to the offense. The defense improved from a terrible 2022. However, it was still not championship-caliber enough in 2023. Still, Hutchinson is their best player and he improved with 11.5 sacks in his first Pro Bowl season.
AIDAN HUTCHINSON ONE-HANDED PICK 😳
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/Kyyjhby9w0
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) October 8, 2023
Oddly enough, Danielle Hunter is a talking point for these 2 candidates. He was the top edge rusher in free agency this year, and that’s the kind of move a contender like Detroit should have looked into to give Hutchinson some help.
However, it ended up being the Texans who pulled the trigger, pairing Hunter with Will Anderson Jr., the reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year. Last year’s No. 3 overall pick had 7.0 sacks as a rookie and is in a similar position to Hutchinson going into Year 2. However, he’s not clearly the best pass rusher on his own team now that Hunter is there, and that can hurt his stats that he’ll need to win this award.
Fading the Secondary
We mentioned above that defensive backs rarely win this award as only 11-of-53 DPOY winners since 1971 were corners (6) or safeties (5).
The only defensive back with odds better than +5000 this year is Baltimore safety Kyle Hamilton (+4000). He had a great All-Pro season in 2023, intercepting 4 passes and allowing just 2.6 yards per target in coverage.
However, the Ravens had the No. 1 defense in points, sacks and turnovers – the first defense to ever pull off that hat trick. They lost some starters and defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald (Seahawks). It would be reasonable to expect the Ravens to take a step back, and for Hamilton’s stats to regress a little.
Hamilton also didn’t receive a single point for DPOY last year despite his stellar year. Tampa Bay safety Antoine Winfield Jr. was the only safety to receive any votes with 7 points.
Dallas corner DaRon Bland had all the corner votes with 14 points after he led the league with 9 interceptions, including a record 5 returned for a touchdown.
I love when Santa brings us the gift of watching Kyle Hamilton play football. pic.twitter.com/6qvAssAvmX
— Zach Bollinger (@zachbollinger18) May 15, 2024
You basically have to lead the league in interceptions to win this award, and even then that might not be good enough. We’ll fade the defensive backs in 2024.
The Handsomely Paid Longshots (+1600 or higher)
Finally, let’s end with 3 longshots who all got paid fat contracts this offseason.
Josh Allen, Jacksonville Jaguars (+1600 at BetOnline)
He probably gets overshadowed a bit by having the same name as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. However, this Josh Allen had a career-high 17.5 sacks and received a $150 million contract with $88 million guaranteed this offseason.
Still, let’s fade him for DPOY in 2024 since his 2023 season is a great example of chunking sacks against inexperienced quarterbacks. Allen recorded 11.5 of his 17.5 sacks in games against the Colts (Anthony Richardson), Falcons (Desmond Ridder), Panthers (Bryce Young) and Texans (C.J. Stroud). Those were all 1st or 2nd-year quarterbacks.
Allen did not record a sack in 8-of-17 games last year. Look for his numbers to decrease this year.
The Jaguars signed Josh Allen to a long-term contract this week.
Doug Pederson said he is excited that the deal is done.
“We drafted him 5 years ago and we still made a commitment to him today and that’s important that we retain our guys.” pic.twitter.com/wByJMDkM0e
— Jamal St. Cyr (@JStCyrTV) April 13, 2024
Chris Jones, Kansas City Chiefs (+2800 at BetOnline)
The Chiefs made the right decision in paying Chris Jones over corner L’Jarius Sneed. Jones has been their best defender, and he should finish his career in Kansas City after the Chiefs gave him an extension worth $101 million in guaranteed money, making him the highest-paid defensive tackle in NFL history.
However, Jones has never been an annual DPOY contender. He finished 3rd in 2022, the only year he’s received votes.
The Chiefs had a great defense last year, and it’s fair to expect a little regression to the mean on that side of the ball this season. Jones should be great for them, but he’s definitely a tier below the top-edge rushers in the game.
Danielle Hunter, Houston Texans (+4000 at BetOnline)
Hunter was the big prize in free agency for edge rushers, and Houston got it done with a 2-year deal worth $49 million. Hunter is coming off a career-high 16.5 sacks with the Vikings, and now he gets to pair with Will Anderson Jr. for a team that expects to be a Super Bowl contender this season after already winning a division title last year.
Head coach DeMeco Ryans could see Hunter as his Nick Bosa in this defense. A hired gun to get after the best quarterbacks in the playoffs. With Houston’s loaded offense and expected improvements from C.J. Stroud, this team could be leading in a lot of games and ask Hunter to tee off on quarterbacks to boost his stats.
The last two off-seasons for the Texans have completely transformed the franchise.
DeMeco Ryans, CJ Stroud, Will Anderson, Danielle Hunter, Stefon Diggs, etc.
Houston is a top tier destination.
— JJ Watt (@JJWatt) April 3, 2024
Conclusion
It would be an understatement to say the Cowboys had an underwhelming offseason. However, they are still a talented team, Mike Zimmer knows how to coach defense and Micah Parsons could be in store for his best season yet. They also might need it from him if turnover regression finally catches up to them.
Parsons has been close to this award in all 3 years, and maybe this is the season he finishes it off and wins it to join the club of active winners with Bosa, Watt and Garrett already getting a taste of the DPOY award.
With Watt and Garrett, those teams could always disappoint in the AFC North and miss the playoffs, which would severely hurt their chances of winning the award as the data shows. Let’s not forget we still don’t know if Deshaun Watson is functional in Cleveland or if Russell Wilson is truly cooked when he starts in Pittsburgh this year. Don’t forget Joe Burrow will hopefully be healthier this year, and the Ravens are always a threat. That division is tough.
Deshaun Watson talks about not having to be a game changer every play… instead taking what the defense gives him as a game manager while also being a game changer when it’s crunch time. #DawgPound pic.twitter.com/XiMAPByl3p
— Cam White (@Big_Head15) May 12, 2024
The NFC is just easier to get to the playoffs in, and the Cowboys still have some very talented players. Their chances of remaining solid on defense and making the playoffs are higher than that for the Raiders and Crosby, for example. Parsons has also been a little more consistent than Nick Bosa in San Francisco even if he hasn’t had the highs of a season like Bosa had in 2022. Still, maybe this will be Parsons’ year.
As for a longshot, we do love the value of Hunter in Houston where he can feed off Anderson Jr. on the other end. Maybe he’ll just be like Haason Reddick, who went to the Eagles in 2022 and had 16 sacks to help the team reach a Super Bowl. He finished 4th in DPOY for that effort.
That’s the best longshot value this year. Either way, we like the award to go to the state of Texas.
