The 2025 NFL Draft is just over a week away. While many may be overselling this draft class being “weak” compared to 2024, one doesn’t need to look any further than the quarterback class to see that their may not be a huge instant impact on teams in 2025.
For example, Jayden Daniels (Commanders) and Bo Nix (Broncos) helped their teams to the playoffs last year when no one thought they’d be that good. This year, Cam Ward may end up being the only certain rookie starter, and he’s got his work cut out for him if the Titans make him the No. 1 pick after their 3-14 season.
So, the 2025 draft may not move the needle as much for these teams. That’s why it’s a good time to look at the current value for the 8 NFL division races for the best value today before the draft.
We picked out 3 of our favorite value plays, and they all happen to be in the volatile NFC, where change is much more common. The AFC had the same division winners in 2023 and 2024, and those teams (Chiefs/Ravens/Bills/Texans) are all favored again this year.
NFC East: Washington’s Time?
Here are the current odds from BetOnline (check our BetOnline Review) on who will win the 2025 NFC East:
- Philadelphia Eagles (-180)
- Washington Commanders (+240)
- Dallas Cowboys (+700)
- New York Giants (+2200)
One of the wildest stats is that the NFC East has not had a repeat winner since the Eagles in 2001-04. The Eagles look poised to end that streak in 2025 after a dominant Super Bowl win over the Chiefs has them looking like the class of the league right now with young talent coming back on both sides of the ball at so many positions.
But the only team to beat Philadelphia after September was Washington, led by rookie sensation Jayden Daniels, who had quite arguably the best rookie quarterback season ever. He elevated the talent around him, and Washington had its best season since 1991.
That’s even with a subpar defense, and still, Daniels had them in the NFC Championship Game that may have gone differently if they didn’t lose 3 fumbles.
Smart Moves Fuel Commanders’ Hopes
But the Commanders have already made some smart moves in acquiring wide receiver Deebo Samuel and left tackle Laremy Tunsil. They can use their top draft pick to bolster the defensive line or find a starter in the secondary to give Dan Quinn more juice to work with defensively.
Elsewhere in the division, the Cowboys have a new coach (Brian Schottenheimer) and Dak Prescott is still talking about his hamstring injury, which isn’t a good sign in April. That roster’s depth has dried up quickly, too.
Then the Giants are still a longshot. They could land Abdul Carter or Travis Hunter in the draft, but good luck trying to win this division with Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston as the top 2 quarterbacks.
Value Bet or Trap?
With +240 odds at the top NFL sportsbooks, the Commanders look like a good value right now if you expect Daniels to get even better in his 2nd year. Sure, this has not gone well before as picking Dak Prescott (2017 Cowboys) or C.J. Stroud (2024 Texans) to light it up in their 2nd season after a stellar rookie campaign didn’t go well.
But Daniels looks like the next big thing in the NFL as a dual-threat who can get it done in the clutch. If you give him a better defense and expect some regression from the Eagles on recovering fumbles and getting 60-yard runs out of Saquon Barkley, then that could be enough to swing the division title to the Commanders.
NFL Pick: 2025 NFC East Division Winner – Washington Commanders (+240) at BetOnline
NFC South: Return of the Falcons?
Here are the current odds from BetOnline on who will win the 2025 NFC South:
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+115)
- Atlanta Falcons (+250)
- Carolina Panthers (+450)
- New Orleans Saints (+500)
The Buccaneers have won the division the last 4 years, but frankly, it’s about time someone else gets a turn. Tampa is 27-24 over the last 3 seasons, so it’s not like this team runs away with the NFC South or posts great records that can’t be caught. It also likes to bring back a lot of the same roster, so the odds of getting significantly better are slim.
That’s why there’s great growth opportunities with the other teams in the NFC South in 2025.
The Longshots
The Saints are the longshot right now, but they were done in quickly by injuries last year. Injury to Derek Carr could even lead the team to drafting Shedeur Sanders (Colorado) with that No. 9 pick, and pairing him with new coach Kellen Moore could be a quick turnaround if everything goes extremely well.
But the Saints’ mismanagement of the cap makes it really hard for them to compete with depth, so everyone has to stay healthy. That’s tougher to do with an older team.
The Carolina Panthers may be a trendy pick this year if you believe in Bryce Young’s improved finish to 2024 under rookie coach Dave Canales, an early favorite for the 2025 NFL Coach of the Year betting odds. But we’ll see what the Panthers do with that No. 8 pick as they could go a variety of ways, from getting Young another receiving weapon, an offensive tackle, or they could try to get an edge rusher or the best corner not named Travis Hunter.
The Team to Watch
But the team to focus on is the Atlanta Falcons. They made the switch late last season to Michael Penix Jr. after Kirk Cousins wasn’t getting the job done. They lost 2 tough games in overtime after the defense failed to deliver, but Penix looks promising, and they obviously have the skill players with Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts.
But similar to Dan Quinn in Washington, Raheem Morris needs more help on defense to get that unit into the top half of the league. Everyone expected the Falcons to use their No. 8 pick last year on a top edge rusher like Dallas Turner, but they shocked the world when they drafted Penix.
Maybe with that No. 15 pick this year, they make up for that by going defense and getting a top edge rusher. But the 2025 Falcons will ultimately go as far as Penix takes them, and there’s reason to think a 2nd-year quarterback coming into his own in a flawed division without a super team is a good value pick for a surprise division winner.
Besides, the Falcons haven’t been to the playoffs since 2017. They are long overdue.
Our recommendation is to lock in the Falcons to take the NFC South at a trusted Georgia betting app like BetOnline.
NFL Pick: 2025 NFC South Division Winner – Atlanta Falcons (+250) at BetOnline
NFC North: Can Chicago Turn This Upside Down?
Here are the current odds from BetOnline on who will win the 2025 NFC North:
- Detroit Lions (+120)
- Green Bay Packers (+285)
- Minnesota Vikings (+375)
- Chicago Bears (+450)
The 2024 NFC North had an argument for the best division in NFL history last year. The Lions (15-2) and Vikings (14-3) had incredible records with the Packers (11-6) also turning in a playoff season.
But the shock in the postseason was that none of the NFC North teams managed to win a single playoff game. The Lions were upset by wild-card Washington in the divisional round after the Vikings were embarrassed at home by the Rams, and the Packers struggled in Philadelphia.
Could the Bears Go from Worst to First?
It would be such an on-brand NFL thing for the Chicago Bears, the only losing team in the NFC North last year, to go from worst to first and win the NFC North in 2025 behind new coach Ben Johnson, Detroit’s offensive coordinator.
It could happen too, when you link a seemingly smart rookie coach with a No. 1 overall pick at quarterback going into his 2nd year. It could be like the 2017 Rams when Sean McVay had an instant impact on Jared Goff, who was horrific in 2016 as a rookie.
Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson’s Hope
At least Caleb Williams showed some skills last year, didn’t turn the ball over much, and the team lost games in excruciating fashion before firing Matt Eberflus, one of the worst coaches in close games in NFL history. Just think of the potential for Chicago if the Washington Hail Mary didn’t happen, or if they didn’t squander the clock in their 2-minute drills against the Lions in Detroit on Thanksgiving or have a winning field goal blocked against the Packers.
Johnson comes in and has been saying the right things all offseason about how to fix the Bears. With the No. 10 pick, they could go with a tight end like Tyler Warren, they could land a dominant running back like Ashton Jeanty if he’s still available, or they could add to the trenches with a top 10 talent.
But the main reason to be excited is about what Johnson can do as a bright, young mind, something the NFL coaching club is lacking these days.
There are also reasons to think those other teams take a step back this year, as they’ll be facing tougher schedules, most likely. Maybe the Lions will miss losing both coordinators to head coaching jobs, putting more on Dan Campbell’s plate. The Vikings let Sam Darnold go, and J.J. McCarthy is a real wild card at quarterback. The Packers couldn’t beat any elite teams last year and overspent on a guard in free agency this year.
The Perfect Setup for Chicago’s Rise
It might be a big stretch right now to say the Bears are going to win the division, but if there was ever a situation for some humorous regression where one team goes from worst to first with some logic behind it, this would be the case with Chicago in 2025. Trust quarterbacks taken No. 1 overall when they’re presented with a smart coach who knows how to manage a clock and defend a Hail Mary.
NFL Pick: 2025 NFC North Division Winner – Chicago Bears (+450) at BetOnline
