One of the most popular NFL futures bets is the division winners for the upcoming 2024 NFL season. You can find odds for all 8 divisions at top NFL sportsbooks such as BetOnline (check our BetOnline Review) and Bovada (check our Bovada Review).
Since the NFL has gone to 32 teams in 8 divisions in 2002, we have seen an average of 4.5 new division winners from the previous season. The last 3 years have featured exactly 4 new division winners in each season, so that’s a 50% replacement factor.
The most repeat division winners in this era is 6, which was done in 2011-12 and 2013-14. There have been at least 4 new division winners in 8 of the last 9 seasons.
So, even if last year’s division winner is the odds-on favorite in 7-of-8 divisions in 2024, you should expect to go against the grain and back someone new to win this year in multiple divisions.
With that in mind, here are our current picks and strategy for each NFL division winner this season.
AFC East: Buffalo’s Time Is Over?
The AFC East division has the following odds at BetOnline:
- Buffalo Bills (+160)
- Miami Dolphins (+190)
- New York Jets (+200)
- New England Patriots (+2200)
Normally, the AFC East has been the easiest division to predict with the Patriots taking it 16 times in 17 years in 2003-2019, then the Bills have won it every year since 2020. But it came down to the final game of the season last year with Miami giving Buffalo a tough time before the Bills came through again.
But now the Bills traded Stefon Diggs and are going with an underwhelming receiving corps around Josh Allen, they’ve lost some defensive veterans, and the Jets are hoping to have Aaron Rodgers for a full season this time. The Dolphins still have great speed on offense and should be formidable. The Patriots are in the cellar rebuilding and shouldn’t be any threat in 2024.
But out of the 8 divisions, this one is the most legitimate 3-team battle with the tightest odds at the top.
It feels like the right opportunity to back the Jets to end the playoff drought (since 2011) and dethrone Buffalo. They were 7-10 last year and lost 3 games where they didn’t even allow 17 points. That’s unlikely to happen with Rodgers, and even if he isn’t at MVP level at 41 years old and coming off an Achilles tear, he can still be the best quarterback this team’s had in a long time. The defense can be the best he’s had in a long time as well.
A healthy Aaron Rodgers with Garrett Wilson is good for football.
(🎥 @nyjets)pic.twitter.com/dNQ50Af6t5— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) June 4, 2024
It should be a close race again, but we’ll take the Jets for now as the Bills take a step back.
NFL Pick: AFC East Division Winner – New York Jets (+200) at BetOnline
AFC North: Faith in Lamar Jackson?
The AFC North division has the following odds at BetOnline:
- Baltimore Ravens (+125)
- Cincinnati Bengals (+165)
- Cleveland Browns (+600)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (+600)
No one has ever won the AFC North more than 2 years in a row, but that means the Ravens have a good shot to repeat this season after taking it back from the Bengals last year.
It was quarterback health that sunk the Ravens in 2021-22 when Lamar Jackson was injured in December both years and the Ravens lost their AFC North lead to the Bengals. But last year, the Bengals had the health issues with Joe Burrow, who finished a season on injured reserve for the 2nd time since 2020.
This is likely a Ravens vs. Bengals battle in 2024, with Jackson and Burrow both looking to turn in healthy, complete seasons. The Browns let go of Joe Flacco and are stuck with an overpaid Deshaun Watson, who is seemingly the only quarterback that coach Kevin Stefanski cannot get the most out of in his offense.
Deshaun Watson cannot be serious pic.twitter.com/2w7B8tCt4l
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) October 22, 2023
The Steelers don’t have losing seasons under Mike Tomlin, but they also don’t win playoff games anymore. They have also won this division once since 2018 and we still don’t know if Russell Wilson is cooked or if he has anything left.
The Ravens should take a step back defensively after leading the league in every major category on that side of the ball, and they lost defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald to the Seahawks. But it’s Baltimore, so you can count on the defense to still be adequate, and while Jackson didn’t have a typical MVP year in 2023, he still gives the team a unique edge with his rushing talent.
Look out For the Ravens
Throw Derrick Henry in the backfield and this is still the team to beat in the AFC North. They may not be cut out for playoff football, but this is about winning the division, which is something they know how to do well.
Also, the Bengals lost their offensive coordinator and no longer have a top wide receiver trio after Tyler Boyd left. They didn’t really add that much in the offseason either. This is Baltimore’s division until proven otherwise.
NFL Pick: AFC North Division Winner – Baltimore Ravens (+125) at BetOnline
AFC South: The New Ruling Class
The AFC South division has the following odds at BetOnline:
- Houston Texans (-110)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (+290)
- Indianapolis Colts (+325)
- Tennessee Titans (+1000)
The Houston Texans blew away expectations in 2023 by winning 10 games and the AFC South behind a rookie coach and quarterback. Now there are Super Bowl expectations for the Texans in 2024, led by an MVP candidate in C.J. Stroud, who led the NFL last year in passing yards per game and lowest interception rate as a rookie.
Stroud has arguably the best supporting cast in the NFL with the additions of Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon to go along with Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and tight end Dalton Schultz. This offense also retained coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the defense added a top edge rusher in Danielle Hunter to make for a bookend duo with Defensive Rookie of the Year Will Anderson Jr.
The Texans could very well fail to meet expectations as a young team, but as a believer in what Stroud is doing, it is hard not to like this team to repeat as division champions in 2024. That might actually be the lowest bar of what they could do this year.
7 AFC SOUTH titles in the last 13 years‼️ pic.twitter.com/artCS9Y1MS
— Houston Stressans (@TexansCommenter) May 26, 2024
With the Colts, you have to be concerned with Anthony Richardson’s durability after numerous injuries in a few games last season, and we still don’t know how good he is at the NFL level. As for the Jaguars, the growth wasn’t there with Trevor Lawrence in 2023, and things ended on a poor note for the team. The Texans just look like the better team on both sides of the ball than Jacksonville.
The Dark Horse
However, while our pick is Houston, we will point out it is not uncommon for an NFL team to go from last to winning a division. The Texans literally just did that in 2022-23. Maybe one of the best values to do that in 2024 is Tennessee (+1000 odds at BetOnline) when you consider the addition of an offensive coach (Brian Callahan) to a 2nd-year quarterback (Will Levis), who got upgraded weapons with Tony Pollard and Calvin Ridley.
That’s usually a good formula for a sneaky breakout season. Houston is still the pick, but Tennessee might be a good value pick to sneak into a division winner parlay with some of the more confident picks in this year’s field.
NFL Pick: AFC South Division Winner – Houston Texans (-110) at BetOnline
AFC West: Kansas City Seeks History
The AFC West division has the following odds at BetOnline:
- Kansas City Chiefs (-250)
- Los Angeles Chargers (+325)
- Las Vegas Raiders (+1200)
- Denver Broncos (+1200)
The Chiefs are pursuing all sorts of history. In addition to a Super Bowl 3-peat, the Chiefs are trying to win the AFC West for the 9th year in a row, which would be 2nd to only the Patriots, who won the AFC East 11 years in a row in 2009-19.
For the 8th straight year… the @Chiefs are AFC West Champions! #NFLPlayoffs @budlight | #CellyClinched pic.twitter.com/cWCvVrFg47
— NFL (@NFL) January 1, 2024
It could very well happen too with the Raiders having a quarterback issue, the Broncos starting a rookie quarterback (Bo Nix) in a bit of a rebuild season, and you never quite expect the Chargers to live up to expectations.
But the Chargers would be the dark horse pick with Jim Harbaugh returning to coaching in the NFL. He finished 13-3 and reached the NFC Championship Game in his rookie season with the 49ers in 2011, though he had a stacked roster and didn’t have to deal with a dynasty like the Chiefs, let alone a quarterback like Patrick Mahomes.
Chiefs 3-Peat?
The Chiefs could actually field their best team yet under Mahomes this year if the defense remains close to what it was last year and if the offense is more efficient – not leading the league in dropped passes would be a good start.
Kansas City is the pick again, but like with the AFC South, there could be a value pick here in the Chargers to throw into a parlay as Harbaugh getting a team with a very good quarterback (Justin Herbert) in place could work quickly.
But it is always hard to bet against the Chiefs for anything.
NFL Pick: AFC West Division Winner – Kansas City Chiefs (-250) at BetOnline
NFC East: The 2-Horse Race
The NFC East division has the following odds at BetOnline:
- Dallas Cowboys (+120)
- Philadelphia Eagles (+120)
- New York Giants (+900)
- Washington Commanders (+1000)
No team has repeated as division champs in the NFC East since the Eagles in 2001-04. It’s a wild stat but certainly a legitimate fact. It’s even wilder when you consider every other division in the NFL has had at least 2 franchises win the division in back-to-back years since 2002.
Can history repeat itself with the Eagles coming back to take it from Dallas? They have the same odds (-120) right now. The other teams do not look like much of a threat given their struggles with the Eagles and Cowboys, the fact that the Giants are still trying to make Daniel Jones work in Year 6, and the Commanders are stuck with a new coach and rookie quarterback after fielding the league’s worst pass defense in 2023.
Will Things Get Better for Philly?
The Eagles collapsed last year following a 10-1 start, but they hired better coordinators (Vic Fangio and Kellen Moore), upgraded the corner position in the draft, and their offensive pieces and defensive front are still strong despite the retirements of Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox.
The Cowboys had a pretty underwhelming offseason as their biggest free-agent signing was linebacker Eric Kendricks. They didn’t do anything at running back after losing Tony Pollard. They even brought Ezekiel Elliott back, which isn’t cause for excitement in 2024. They also lost Tyron Smith, Michael Gallup, and defensive coordinator Dan Quinn.
The last two years, the Cowboys and Eagles have split their matchups with the home team winning each game. This time, the Eagles get the rematch late in the season (Week 17) at home, and that game could be the decider for the NFC East title.
We’ll trust the Eagles to bounce back and finish ahead of Dallas for the division title this year.
NFL Pick: NFC East Division Winner – Philadelphia Eagles (+120) at BetOnline=
NFC North: Are We Back to the Packers on Top?
The NFC North division has the following odds at BetOnline:
- Detroit Lions (+150)
- Green Bay Packers (+175)
- Chicago Bears (+350)
- Minnesota Vikings (+750)
This could be another tight division race where last year’s winner (Detroit) has serious competition from Green Bay. If the Packers can start the season the way they finished 2023 behind Jordan Love’s MVP-caliber play, then this team has Super Bowl potential. They could finish the job the Lions came up short at when they blew the NFC title game in San Francisco.
Not Enough Improvements
You start looking at where each team should get better, and it’s hard to see if the Lions did enough to improve to a championship-caliber defense. They did upgrade at corner in the draft but not much else outside of that. The offense should be very good again, but we know the Packers can score too.
The Packers also had one of the youngest offenses in NFL history last year, so it made sense why they needed a couple of months to gel and improve before going on a hot streak. They were also the only offense to score 27 points on Kansas City’s defense last year in a win.
Green Bay finally made the change at defensive coordinator too as Joe Barry is out. They upgraded a few positions like middle linebacker and safety in free agency and the draft. It may not be an elite defense yet but it can be better than Detroit’s, and right now it feels like Love has that superstar potential that Jared Goff just does not have after seeing him for 9 seasons now in the NFL.
Jordan Love: “Since I’ve been here, I feel like this is the closest the team’s been … I think this team’s at an awesome spot right now.” pic.twitter.com/9bHfPNSUJl
— Matt Schneidman (@mattschneidman) June 4, 2024
We’re going to go with that potential and back the Packers to get back on top of the NFC North. The Bears and Vikings are a year or more away in this race as they go with rookie quarterbacks and Chicago may still not have the right head coach for the job there.
NFL Pick: NFC North Division Winner – Green Bay Packers (+175) at BetOnline
NFC South: Pressure Is on Atlanta
The NFC South division has the following odds at BetOnline:
- Atlanta Falcons (-115)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+290)
- New Orleans Saints (+325)
- Carolina Panthers (+1200)
The Falcons and Saints already blew this division title in 2023 when they had easy schedules, the Buccaneers had the toughest, and they still couldn’t take the division away from them.
But the Buccaneers basically are bringing back the same team, which was only good enough to finish 9-8 in the worst division last year. They feel like one of the safest picks of teams to miss the playoffs after making it last year.
The Saints are feeling the effects of salary cap hell, and their roster isn’t great enough to justify all that money spent. Plus, it’s hard to trust any team with Derek Carr at quarterback.
Good Underdog Opportunity?
Carolina is in a similar position to what we said about Tennessee in the AFC South section. If you want that last-to-first underdog pick with great value, you back a team that has a talented 2nd-year quarterback getting a shot with an offensive rookie coach in Dave Canales, who has helped Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield to career years the last 2 seasons. That’s a possibility in this division this year, but it’s hard right now to trust Bryce Young on a team that never took a snap with a 4th-quarter lead last season.
Trust Atlanta
Atlanta is still the smart pick here. As much as the Michael Penix Jr. draft pick was absurd at No. 8, it likely won’t hurt them from winning a division title in 2024. The division is winnable, Kirk Cousins is the best quarterback in it, he should be healthy to start the season, he has weapons at every level, he has a new coaching staff that should be an improvement over Arthur Smith, the defense isn’t dreadful, and the schedule should be very favorable again.
We’ll back the Falcons to get this done, and they better get it done or else this offseason of passing on hiring Bill Belichick and drafting another quarterback after giving Cousins $180 million is going to look absolutely foolish.
Kirk Cousins and Michael Penix Jr. working goal line fades: pic.twitter.com/vaUV9e7bTg
— Daniel Flick (@ByDanielFlick) June 3, 2024
Also, in picking the Jets, Eagles, Packers, and Falcons as new division winners in 2024, that gives us the 50% turnover rate in division winners that we were targeting in this exercise.
NFL Pick: NFC South Division Winner – Atlanta Falcons (-110) at BetOnline
NFC West: San Francisco’s Stranglehold on the Division
The NFC West division has the following odds at BetOnline:
- San Francisco 49ers (-220)
- Los Angeles Rams (+325)
- Seattle Seahawks (+750)
- Arizona Cardinals (+1400)
You like to pick the 49ers to fall off and have a down year after falling short of a championship again last year under Kyle Shanahan. But this team is still way too talented for that, barring massive injuries like they experienced in 2020, the only season since 2019 where they didn’t play in the NFC Championship Game.
But in addition to all the talented players on both sides of the ball, Brock Purdy appears to be a legitimate starting quarterback in this league. He sustained great numbers for an entire season in 2023, he delivered some clutch moments in the playoffs, and he even led 3 go-ahead drives in the 4th quarter and overtime of the Super Bowl, only to be outdone by Patrick Mahomes. They can win and win big with Mr. Irrelevant.
When it felt like the entire world (besides #49ers fans) were rooting for Brock Purdy to crumble on that final drive, he didn’t.
He led the Niners down the field and took the lead with their season on the line. He deserves some credit for that.
pic.twitter.com/lGRk6WfZvv— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) January 21, 2024
Not Worthy Opponents
The other issue is the division. Are the Rams really strong enough on defense to get back to winning the NFC West? They lost Aaron Donald to retirement, and while Puka Nacua looks like the next great receiver, they always have durability concerns with Cooper Kupp staying healthy.
The Seahawks have a promising rookie coach in Mike Macdonald, who should help the defense. But is that team really ready to topple the 49ers? Geno Smith struggles to put up points on the 49ers, who have owned the Seahawks in recent years. The Cardinals are also not ready for this spot yet under coach Jonathan Gannon after a 4-13 season last year.
The 49ers have the 2nd-best odds of any team to win their division in 2024. It’s hard to argue with that happening right now. Maybe the Rams are worth a parlay play, but the 49ers should be one of your most confident picks for a repeat division winner in 2024.
NFL Pick: NFC West Division Winner – San Francisco 49ers (-220) at BetOnline
