With anticipation building for the 2024 NFL draft, the oddsmakers seem to be handicapping this one with little room for surprises when the 1st round begins on tonight.
Yet, if we know anything about the NFL draft, it is to expect the unexpected. You never know when that slam dunk match that’s been listed in thousands of mock drafts is completely ignored by the team when their number is on the clock.
However, maybe this 2024 draft class is unique for the way the top prospects break down neatly at key positions like quarterback, wide receiver, offensive line and corner. Meanwhile, there is a shortage of talent available at the top of the draft at edge rushers, running backs, off-ball linebackers and safeties.
Throw in so many teams trading away key players and leaving a huge opening at that position, and you have a lot of picks that feel like safe bets. Still, the NFL draft is anything but safe.
We have included the top 5 things to know before wagering on this year’s draft at the NFL betting sites.
It’s a Quarterback League
One thing that remains fairly consistent is that quarterback remains the most sought-after prize in a draft class. It did not happen that way in 2022 when Kenny Pickett, the 20th pick by Pittsburgh, was the only quarterback drafted in the top 70 picks, but that class was an outlier.
Sure enough, the 2024 class is heavily favored to start QB-QB-QB with Caleb Williams (USC), Jayden Daniels (LSU) and Drake Maye (North Carolina). The order could be different with Daniels and Maye going to Washington and New England, but it’s almost certainly going to be that kind of start to the draft, mirroring 2021 when it also started QB-QB-QB.
The only question is: will we see 4 straight quarterbacks to start a draft for the 1st time? Someone could trade up to that No. 4 pick and take J.J. McCarthy from Michigan, and there are certainly a few teams in that type of need for a quarterback.
But overall, sportsbooks are now heavily favoring over 4.5 quarterbacks taken in the 1st round. Four should go in the top 10 or so, and someone like Bo Nix (Oregon) or Michael Penix Jr. (Washington) should go later in the round, perhaps by a team wanting to get that 5th-year option in the cost-friendly contract at the most important position.
The Wide Receivers Own This Draft
While quarterback is the most important position, wide receiver has been viewed as the deepest position in the 2024 draft. There could be 7 wideouts drafted in the 1st round, though the under 6.5 is still favored at this point.
Still, there could be 12 or 13 wideouts taken in the first 2 rounds this year, making it an unusually deep class at what has become a premium position. Teams aren’t always interested in paying a contract extension to a wideout, so reloading with a high draft pick is the way to go for some teams.
If you are in need of a wideout, this is a great draft for that. We are expecting the Buffalo Bills to go for one in the 1st round, perhaps Brian Thomas Jr. of LSU, after they let go of Gabe Davis (Jaguars) and traded Stefon Diggs to Houston. That was already the expectation for Buffalo, but the Diggs trade just makes it more likely they go wideout in the 1st round.
Gotta think Brian Thomas Jr. is the most realistic receiver in play for the Bills now if they decide to trade up.
An absolute baller at LSU! Would be ecstatic if Brandon Beane makes a draft day trade to make him a Buffalo Bill! pic.twitter.com/E5XdfTosya
— Mike Bundt (@Mike_Bundt) April 4, 2024
The Cardinals, Chargers, Giants, Ravens, Lions, 49ers and Chiefs are among the other teams who are potential landing spots for a 1st-round wide receiver this year.
There are 3 wide receivers – Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze – who are expected to go in the top 10 picks. Brian Thomas Jr. (LSU) is projected more in the late teens or 20s range. Texas could have a pair of late 1st-round wideouts in Adonai Mitchell and Xavier Worthy, the latter who broke a record with a 4.21-second 40-yard dash.
The other wild card could be Georgia receiver Ladd McConkey, who would look great in a Kansas City uniform with the No. 32 pick.
Xavier Worthy shocked the world last night by running a record breaking 4.21 second 40-yard dash 🤯
(via @NFL)
— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) March 3, 2024
Still, the abundance of receiving talent in this draft might mean some of those teams expected to take one in the top 6 picks (Cardinals, Chargers and Giants) could buck conventional wisdom and wait for the 2nd round or later. That’s just something to keep in mind when projecting where these players are going or if you’re betting on which team they end up with.
The Chargers could especially shake up the top of this draft with that No. 5 pick and a variety of directions to go.
Don’t Be Blinded by the Trades
Maybe you’ve been waiting for months to bet on wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. to go to Arizona with the No. 4 pick. You assumed the top 3 picks would be quarterbacks, the Cardinals seemed content to keep Kyler Murray around and Harrison Jr. was favored for months to be the top wideout in this draft.
You only got more excited about this pick when the team traded Rondale Moore to Atlanta and let Marquise Brown go to the Chiefs, leaving a huge opening at wide receiver in the desert.
However, what happens if it’s draft night and a team like the Vikings or Saints can’t wait anymore and trades up to No. 4 to take Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy? Just like that, your future bet was blown apart by a trade.
That could always happen, as trades have become trendy on the opening night of the NFL draft. While many teams are enjoying the strategy of trading down and building draft capital with more picks, you can’t discount someone willing to make a move and trade up for a player they desperately want.
We saw it back in 2011 when the Falcons got desperate and moved up to No. 6 to take wide receiver Julio Jones, which worked out for them. Last year, the Texans had the aggressive move to trade up to No. 3 to draft edge rusher Will Anderson Jr., who immediately won Defensive Rookie of the Year.
You never know when your mock draft will get nuked by a massive trade on draft night. For this reason, it might be better to match a prospect to a team rather than a specific draft slot like the No. 5 or No. 10 pick.
The Chargers could especially bring some trouble to this draft with that No. 5 pick. Logically, they should take the best wide receiver on the board after losing most of Justin Herbert’s weapons. But with Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman on the new coaching staff, maybe they want a more physical offense in Los Angeles. That could mean Notre Dame tackle Joe Alt, and it could even mean Georgia tight end Brock Bowers, as Harbaugh and Roman have succeeded, together or separate, in offenses led by tight ends like Vernon Davis (49ers) and Mark Andrews (Ravens).
Maybe the Chargers will trade down from No. 5 and collect more picks to try to improve the receiving corps and the defense. That No. 5 slot is one of the hardest to trust in this year’s draft.
Tight Ends Often Overlooked
Tight end is one of the strangest positions in NFL history as it has been historically overlooked in the draft and underpaid in free agency. Still, we know that, when you land an elite tight end, it can have a huge impact on your team.
Just look at Shannon Sharpe (Broncos-Ravens), Rob Gronkowski (Patriots-Buccaneers) and Travis Kelce (Chiefs), who have combined for 10 Super Bowl rings since 1997. The only primary wide receiver to win at least 3 rings in the salary cap era (since 1994) is Julian Edelman on the Patriots.
Sharpe was just a 7th-round pick too. Even Kelce (3rd round), Gronk (2nd round) and George Kittle (5th round) were all drafted after the top 40 picks. The great Antonio Gates, who was snubbed from a 1st-ballot Hall of Fame nod this past year, was undrafted. That’s another oddity about the tight end position where the best players are often not found in the 1st round.
However, if someone is going to go high in the 2024 draft at tight end and have a huge impact on a team, it is Georgia tight end Brock Bowers. He is already in a class of his own as he led the Bulldogs in receiving all 3 years and won 2 national championships. He is that kind of franchise player, and he may not be a direct clone of Gronk, Kittle or Kelce, but his game borrows from traits we see in those players.
Still, with the way tight ends get overlooked in the draft, don’t be surprised if he dips lower in this class than what he’s worth. Even last year, Dalton Kincaid was getting mocked as the No. 15 pick to Green Bay by many people, and he didn’t go off the board as the 1st tight end until No. 25 when Buffalo took him.
In Bowers’ case, he would be such a cool pickup for the Falcons with the No. 8 pick, staying home in Georgia and helping out Kirk Cousins, but they kind of messed that one up when they used the No. 4 pick on Kyle Pitts in 2021, the highest draft pick ever on a tight end. They are still trying to make that one work, though just throwing him the ball more would be a good start. Still, that would be a shocking pick if Bowers went there.
The Jets (No. 10 pick) are the odds-on favorite to land Bowers, but that may not be the pick as Aaron Rodgers has never been a quarterback who runs his offense through the tight end position. He is trying to win now given his age and may not be interested in a rookie tight end.
That’s why it’s not crazy for Bowers to slip to the No. 15 pick when the Colts are drafting, and they absolutely should pull the trigger on him if he’s still out there.
Still, even the Chargers with the No. 5 pick should consider Bowers. Maybe wide receiver isn’t the best way to go about things given the success some teams have had with tight ends leading the way. Get their own version of Travis Kelce to deal with the Chiefs in that division.
Bowers is one of the most exciting prospects in this draft, but he could really go anywhere from No. 5 to No. 18 (Bengals).
The Offensive Lean
Putting together the previous points, there is a clear lean towards the offensive side of the ball in this 1st round. In fact, some offshore sportsbooks are offering over/under 20.5 offensive players drafted in the 1st round this year with -140 odds, implying a 58.3% chance of hitting.
It might be better than that when you consider the breakdown of picks:
- A strong possibility of 5 quarterbacks taken in the 1st round with either Nix or Penix Jr. going late after the big 4.
- The over/under for offensive linemen in the 1st round is 9.5 with the over (-160) favored, so that could be another 10 players (15 total).
- We know Brock Bowers is going as the only tight end in the 1st round (16 total).
- There will not be a 1st-round running back this year.
- While 7 is an outside possibility, there should be at least 6 wide receivers in the 1st round (22 total).
Even if there are only 4 quarterbacks or 9 offensive linemen, that should put the total at 21 as long as everything else holds. This is just not a strong draft at the top for edge rushers, linebackers and safeties. The corners are the strength of the defense, and they should send at least 5 players in the 1st round.
Still, over 20.5 offensive players in the 1st round looks like one of the best bets on this draft, and over 21.5 is also a real possibility.
