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Ranking the New NFL Head Coach Hires for 2024

by Scott Kacsmar
written by Scott Kacsmar
jim harbaugh los angeles chargers head coach

It has become commonplace in the NFL to hire 5-to-8 new head coaches each season. You have to go back to the 2010 season when there were 3 new hires to find the last time fewer than 5 new NFL head coach hires happened.

However, we really are changing things this year as 8 new hires replace some of the longest-tenured coaches in the league, including a couple of coaching legends in Bill Belichick (2000-23 Patriots) and Pete Carroll (2010-23 Seahawks).

Maybe the most surprising part is all 8 of the new head coach hires include none of the coaches who lost their jobs this past season. You could argue age (being in their 70s) worked against Belichick and Carroll, but Mike Vrabel (Titans), Arthur Smith (Falcons) and Ron Rivera (Commanders) also went unclaimed by the teams hiring a new coach.

So, who made the best hire, and who likely downgraded? We rank the 8 new coach hires from our least favorite to our favorite for this 2024 NFL season. Hopefully, this helps you out when handicapping season wins at the top NFL sportsbooks during the upcoming preseason.

8. Jerod Mayo

Team: New England Patriots

Replacing Bill Belichick in New England is a next-to-impossible task, which is why the promotion of Jerod Mayo, who coached inside linebackers under Belichick since 2019, feels like a short-term solution as this team goes through a rebuild.

It is also true that Belichick, both the GM and the coach, faced challenges as the cupboard was just bare on both sides of the ball at the end of his run. Things were especially bleak on offense with the inability to find a halfway decent quarterback after Tom Brady left. Identifying wide receiver talent was always a blind spot for Belichick. He may have found a good corner in Christian Gonzalez last year, but he was injured early in the season, as was Matt Judon, the team’s best pass rusher.

On the Clock?

The Patriots are in need of someone who will be allowed to oversee a multi-year rebuild, and with owner Robert Kraft going on 83 years old, how much patience does he really have for Mayo if he wants to see a winning team again?

Working against Mayo is that the Belichick coaching tree has by and large flopped in the NFL when his assistants have gone out on their own. A best-case scenario for Mayo might be Brian Flores, who also coached linebackers under Belichick before he took the job in Miami in 2019 where he had a winning record by 2020. But he was also fired after missing the playoffs again in 2021, then sued the Dolphins and NFL with allegations of tanking and racial discrimination.

The other thing working against Mayo is his lack of experience, as most coaches usually are coordinators before taking a head-coaching position, and he was only a position coach, in charge of the linebackers as a former linebacker for the Patriots himself.

Keep It In-House

The history of in-house promotions to head coach has been very poor in recent years. This is the recent history Mayo is up against:

  • Todd Bowles – 2022 Buccaneers (back-to-back division titles)
  • Dennis Allen – 2022 Saints (has yet to make the playoffs)
  • Lovie Smith – 2022 Texans (fired after 1 season)
  • Freddie Kitchens – 2019 Browns (fired after 1 season)
  • Doug Marrone – 2017 Jaguars (1 playoff appearance in 2017)
  • Mike Mularkey – 2016 Titans (1 playoff appearance in 2017)
  • Dirk Koetter – 2016 Buccaneers (fired after 3 seasons)
  • Ben McAdoo – 2016 Giants (1 playoff appearance in 2016)
  • Jim Tomsula – 2015 49ers (fired after 1 season)
  • Romeo Crennel – 2012 Chiefs (fired after 1 season)

Exception to the Rule

Todd Bowles in Tampa is the only coach here to make the playoffs twice, and that’s largely thanks to playing in the NFC South where 8-9 and 9-8 records get the job done.

That won’t fly in the AFC East where Mayo has to end a run of 4 division titles by Josh Allen and the Bills while the Dolphins have also been consistently beating the Patriots. The Jets might even be better again this year if Aaron Rodgers can still play.

Good luck, coach. You’re going to need it. The Patriots have significantly downgraded at head coach here, but it was also necessary to move on. The Belichick era had run its course. All things must pass, as George Harrison wrote.

7. Dan Quinn

Team: Washington Commanders

Some of the best coaches in NFL history did not get it right on their 1st try, which would include Marv Levy (Chiefs), Dick Vermeil (Eagles) and Bill Belichick (Browns). But going from Ron Rivera to Dan Quinn feels like the most lateral movement and most uninspiring choice in this class.

The only reason we’re not ranking it as the worst hire is that Quinn at least has had some proven success in different roles with:

  • Seahawks (defensive coordinator)
  • Falcons (head coach)
  • Cowboys (defensive coordinator)

More Seasoned?

Maybe a few years away from the head coaching job will make him better for it this time around, but there is a big concern that he may be one of those coaches who are better suited to just be a coordinator instead of the top job. When he was in Dallas, he was just able to focus on coaching a very talented group of players who thrived on creating turnovers.

The problem with Quinn’s scheme, going back to his Seattle days, is that he’s too soft with the game on the line. He won’t blitz much, and he’ll just watch the other team papercut his defense to death as they march down the field to win the game. He did this against Tom Brady in 2 different Super Bowls, which is why he blew a pair of double-digit leads in the 4th quarter of those games. He also had no answers for Jordan Love and the Packers in this latest postseason collapse by the Cowboys.

Basically, you’re not going to confuse Quinn for Steve Spagnuolo, the great defensive coordinator of the Chiefs, and that’s the case even if Quinn doesn’t decide to wear his baseball hat backward like the Steve Buscemi “how do you do, fellow kids?” meme.

Bye-Bye Riverboat Ron

Rivera had to go in Washington, but going with Quinn as a defensive-minded retread just feels like the wrong move and one that should continue Washington’s streak of being the only team in the salary-cap era to not win 11 games in any season. He’s going to learn quickly the Commanders spent a bunch of 1st-round picks on the front 7 and still don’t have anything close to a Micah Parsons to rush the passer. The secondary was also the worst in the NFL at giving up big plays last year.

Expected more from the new ownership group in Washington to make a bigger splash with this hire.

6. Raheem Morris

Team: Atlanta Falcons

We may never know what ultimately went down between the Falcons and Bill Belichick, but we know the 6-time Super Bowl champion completed multiple interviews with the team and did not get the job.

Was owner Arthur Blank just wining and dining Belichick to pick his brain, then stiff him in the end as payback for the 28-3 comeback in Super Bowl LI? That’s a fun theory to think about, but the reality of going from a legendary coach to someone like Raheem Morris who is 21-38 (.356) is a tough pill to swallow.

It is hard to see the optimism for this hire. The Falcons had plenty of chances to look at Morris, who had a poor stint with the Buccaneers in 2009-11 when only a bunch of game-winning drives by Josh Freeman in the 2010 season saved his record from looking even worse.

Coaching Switcheroo

Morris joined the Falcons in 2015 under Dan Quinn’s staff where he was eventually switched to offense and coaching the wide receivers instead of the defensive backs. In 2020, Quinn was fired during the season and Morris took over as the interim coach. The defense improved from an abysmal start, but Matt Ryan and the offense were not good enough to produce a record better than 4-7 in Morris’ 11 games.

If the Falcons thought they had something then, they could have promoted Morris to head coach, but he left to become Sean McVay’s defensive coordinator with the 2021 Rams. That team of course won the Super Bowl after a so-so regular season on defense, and consider Morris was also working with some real studs in Aaron Donald, Von Miller and Jalen Ramsey.

With the cupboards much barer in Los Angeles after the Super Bowl win, the defense was a tad below average these last 2 seasons under Morris’ guidance.

The Right Guy?

Arthur Smith was not the right guy for Atlanta anymore, but it is hard to see what we should be hopeful for with Morris coming to a team that has no long-term answer at quarterback and nowhere near the defensive talent of what he had in his only quality year in Los Angeles.

The only reason to like Morris better than the hires of Mayo and Quinn is his versatility and experience of coaching offense and defense and working alongside minds like Kyle Shanahan (2015-16 Falcons) and McVay (2021-23 Rams). Maybe something has rubbed off over the years and he’ll do a better job this time.

5. Brian Callahan

Team: Tennessee Titans

We have reached the top 5, and if you thought that would change the tone to more glowing optimism, you’d be wrong. Brian Callahan is your classic NFL nepotism hire to the point where he’s hired his dad Bill to be his offensive line coach in Tennessee this year.

That actually might prove to be his best move as Papa Callahan has a good history of coaching lines, including the Browns since 2020. But just don’t ask him to change signals in a big game as Callahan’s 2002 Raiders infamously blew the Super Bowl against Tampa Bay when the Buccaneers knew every call quarterback Rich Gannon was making as Tampa coach Jon Gruden was the former coach of the Raiders.

Like Father, Like Son

Let’s hope his son won’t make that same mistake, but getting to a Super Bowl is very premature talk. We don’t even know if Callahan is really that pro-Will Levis, the quarterback the team drafted last year to replace Ryan Tannehill as the eventual starter. That’s the problem with switching coaches so early during a quarterback’s development, and we know the value now of maximizing that rookie contract before you have to pay the quarterback.

But my beef with this pick is that if they were going to make this move, I’d sooner just keep Mike Vrabel for another year. The decision to trade A.J. Brown sunk this team in 2022, and they had some injuries and issues last year too. But Vrabel is good as an underdog and has helped this team win some games it had no business winning. I’m not sure if Callahan will come close to his success, especially if the team is moving on from the Derrick Henry era.

Room for Hope

However, the reason you give Callahan some hope is it fits the mold of giving someone who had multiple seasons of success as an offensive coordinator a shot. That’s how Sean McVay became a head coach after his work with Kirk Cousins in Washington. He didn’t have a Hall of Fame cast there and made it work for multiple seasons.

In Cincinnati, Callahan was Zac Taylor’s coordinator for 5 seasons, and they obviously owe a lot to the draft picks of Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase for their success. The Bengals had arguably the best trio of wide receivers in the league with Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. He won’t have anything near that in Tennessee right now, so we’ll see how he adjusts.

But another reason to think he got this job is because of how well Jake Browning did in Burrow’s absence in 2023. He had some really solid numbers for a quarterback with no prior NFL experience or real pedigree. Maybe Callahan can give Levis some similar guidance and take use of his superior physical tools compared to Browning, and he can help him work on his accuracy in his 2nd year.

But if you’re a Tennessee fan, you have to feel some concern with this pick as Callahan is going to have to deal with DeMeco Ryans, Shane Steichen, and Doug Pederson (former Super Bowl winner) in that division. Possibly having the worst coach and the worst quarterback in a division is a tough hole to dig out of.

4. Antonio Pierce

Team: Las Vegas Raiders

Speaking of having the worst coach and quarterback in a division, Antonio Pierce put the Raiders in a tough spot. There are many layers to this hiring, including reasons to be hopeful and to be cynical.

First, it’s a great thing that the players seem to love Pierce, but are we sure it’s not just the defensive players? The offense didn’t exactly thrive under him. They lost a 3-0 game at home to the Vikings, which should be impossible indoors. They also beat the Chiefs despite not completing a pass after the 1st quarter. Also, good luck repeating that achievement of scoring multiple defensive return touchdowns in back-to-back weeks. Chiefs coach Andy Reid even texted Pierce to thank him for that wake-up call on Christmas day to help the Chiefs pick up their game and win another Vince Lombardi Trophy.

What If?

But if the offensive players love Pierce too, how much of that was their contempt for Josh McDaniels? Anyone will feel like an upgrade after McDaniels if you believe the stories about him. There is also the fact that the Raiders made the playoffs with an interim coach (Rich Bisaccia) in 2021 and hired McDaniels instead of him, so maybe owner Mark Davis and the players did not want to repeat that mistake by not promoting Pierce, who is going to have his work cut out for him in a division with Andy Reid, Sean Payton, and Jim Harbaugh.

The Raiders were a respectable 5-4 with Pierce as the interim coach, but again, we already had the list above in Jerod Mayo’s section to show how rare it is for these promotions to work out.

You’re not going to get the lousy New York teams who can’t score every week, you’re not going to get a Chargers team that quit on Brandon Staley in prime time, and you’re not going to get Denver in Week 18 giving up on the season after the Russell Wilson benching.

The Raiders are going to have to find a quarterback, and maybe that is someone like Jayden Daniels (LSU) in the draft. But Pierce will have to prove he’s more than just a motivational, defensive-minded coach who feels like your best bud in the world after being stuck with Josh McDaniels for 1.5 seasons.

3. Dave Canales

Team: Carolina Panthers

We have reached the top 3 and I can finally say I like this hire. Dave Canales was on the right path to a head coaching job, and it may have happened a year earlier than expected, but there were a lot of openings around the league that needed to be filled.

Canales was with Pete Carroll in Seattle since 2010, doing a variety of jobs from coaching the quarterbacks, wide receivers and coordinating the passing game. This was the heart of the Russell Wilson era, so he knows what a successful running game and passing attack should look like.

Making Geno Shine

However, he did his best work in 2022 as Geno Smith’s position coach, helping the quarterback to a career year where he legitimately made the Pro Bowl and led the team to the playoffs. That led to Canales getting his first offensive coordinator gig with the Buccaneers, where he helped Baker Mayfield to a career year and even outdid some of the numbers Tom Brady had in his final season in 2022.

If Canales can help Geno and Baker to career years, then what can he do for No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young after a miserable rookie season in Carolina? The job is going to be tough as the Panthers need a lot of receiver upgrades and other positions lack talent too. Canales will have a shot to work with a top prospect, and we’ve seen bigger comebacks before like when Sean McVay transformed Jared Goff after a horrendous rookie season in 2016.

Young at least showed a few flashes against Houston and Green Bay this past year. Canales might have something to work with here, and he’s in a division that is still arguably the worst in the NFL and in a position to be won right now.

In fact, you could put Canales on a short list of favorites to win Coach of the Year. Even if he’s no Sean McVay, he could be like Matt Nagy going to Chicago in 2018 and helping Mitch Trubisky to a Pro Bowl.

Again, crazier turnarounds have happened in NFL history. Canales may very well sink with Young too, but at least there is logic behind this hire that will make sense if they improve together.

2. Mike Macdonald

Team: Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks went from the oldest coach in the NFL to the youngest as Mike Macdonald will only be 37 years old this season. He is another defensive specialist who just helped the 2023 Ravens become the 1st defense since the 1970 merger to lead the league in points allowed, sacks and takeaways.

That’s even more impressive when you consider that the roster did not have a stacked group of Hall of Famers like Ed Reed, Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata, and that’s just an example of past Baltimore greatness. No other defense in the NFL has done this since 1970.

The Ravens also did not flounder in the playoffs on defense. They held C.J. Stroud and the Texans to 3 points. They only gave up 17 points to the Chiefs and pitched a 2nd-half shutout.

Missing Him

Macdonald coached under John Harbaugh in Baltimore since 2014, starting as an intern before coaching the defensive backs and linebackers. He left briefly in 2021 to be Jim Harbaugh’s defensive coordinator at Michigan, and that unit was successful on his watch while the Ravens had their worst defense in a long time in 2021.

Macdonald returned to the Ravens in 2022 in a new role as defensive coordinator and the unit was back to being a top 10 unit before their No. 1 ranking in 2023. Macdonald seems to have a good grasp of how to deal with the Kyle Shanahan-style offense that is taking over the league as the Ravens did very well in games against the 49ers, Texans (Bobby Slowik), and Dolphins (Mike McDaniel).

Team Who Waits…

Unlike most of the hires on this list, Macdonald goes to a team that has a quarterback already. Geno Smith may not be poised for a Super Bowl win in his career, but you can at least go 9-8 with him and have a shot. The Seahawks would have done better than 9-8 these last 2 years if the defense was better instead of ranking 25th in points allowed in both years.

Carroll was an excellent coach, but defense is his specialty and the defense has not been strong in Seattle since 2016 and the decline of the Legion of Boom. You should expect Macdonald to improve the defense right away, then it’s just a matter of getting Geno on track or finding that next quarterback to develop.

Also, Macdonald should outlast most of these hires. The Seahawks waited and made it worth the wait.

1. Jim Harbaugh

Team: Los Angeles Chargers

Is there any doubt the Chargers didn’t harpoon a large whale by bringing Jim Harbaugh back to the NFL? He is on a short list of coaches to have success in the NCAA and NFL, reaching a Super Bowl with the 49ers in 2012 and winning his first national championship at Michigan this past year.

Harbaugh has won everywhere he’s gone. He’s won 71.9% of his games in NCAA and 68.8% in the NFL, including 3 straight appearances in the NFC Championship Game with San Francisco in 2011-13. As soon as Harbaugh joined the 49ers, he helped Alex Smith, thought to be a bust, play winning football and have the best season of his career. He also seamlessly transitioned to a young Colin Kaepernick in that 2012 Super Bowl season after Smith was injured.

Got Talent?

Do the Chargers have as much talent stockpiled as those San Francisco teams? No, but they at least have a quarterback in Justin Herbert, who has been dying for an above-average defense and better coaching than Brandon Staley could ever give him. Harbaugh has credibility and should provide those things to Herbert for a change.

The task in the AFC is difficult as many teams have a quarterback, and playing in the AFC West means Harbaugh will have to slay the Kansas City dragon as that team seeks a 3-peat. The Chiefs also have won the AFC West every year since 2016, so that can make things difficult on Harbaugh.

But if someone is going to step up and challenge these Chiefs, Harbaugh has a shot to be that dynasty disruptor with a franchise quarterback by his side. This should be a lot of fun to watch to see if this coach can rebrand “Chargering” and get this team to a Super Bowl.

Hands down, Harbaugh was the best NFL hire in 2024.

scotty kacsmar author todays lines

Scott Kacsmar's bread and butter is NFL football picks. He has published work at many sports websites and blogs including NBC Sports, ESPN Insider, FiveThirtyEight, Bookmakers Review and of course Today's Lines. Scott hails from Pittsburgh and has a love-hate relationship with the Pirates.

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