When the NFL’s 2024 season arrives, you will likely be one of the many NFL bettors making your favorite spread picks, finding underdogs with big moneyline value, and trying to build the perfect parlay with player props.
But in-play betting, otherwise known as live betting, on games already in progress can be another fun and very effective strategy of placing bets for the 2024 season in the NFL.
We wanted to share some of the in-play betting strategies you should try this season and why it enhances the overall betting experience for NFL games.
The NFL Is Unpredictable: Hedge Your Bets
One of the best values from in-play betting is the ability to hedge a bet you made before the game started. This is not always necessary and takes some experience to master the art of doing, but it is an important part of being a high-volume NFL bettor and it can save you a lot of your bankroll, especially if you play parlays.
How many times have you had one leg left on a parlay and that ends up doing you in? With in-play betting, a lot of those pesky final legs can be hedged against to guarantee you a win and some profit.
For example, let’s say you need a 13.5-point favorite to win the game (moneyline) as the final leg of your parlay. If that team is leading in the 4th quarter, you might be able to get nice odds on the trailing team to come back and win the game, so depending on the potential payout of your parlay, it may be worth hedging a little in case there’s a comeback. Even double-digit leads in the 4th quarter aren’t as safe as they used to be in the NFL.
The Sweet Spot
The sweetest spot of any hedge is when you land in the middle of the numbers and win both bets.
For example, let’s say you bet pregame on a favorite to cover a 6.5-point spread. They’re up 14 in the 4th quarter, but you’re worried the opponent is going to do the new analytics strategy of going for 2 after their next touchdown to cut it to a 6-point game and mess up your bet. You can then hedge on the trailing team’s spread, and if they score the touchdown and fail on the 2-point conversion to lose by 8, you will likely win both spread bets.
The same can be applied to hedging player props. Let’s say you bet a wideout to go over 60.5 receiving yards. He has 57 yards through the 3rd quarter and his live over/under is up to a number like 78.5 yards. You could hedge on his under in case he never gets another catch – it happens more than you think – and win both bets if he finishes between 61 and 78 receiving yards.
Timing and Practice
Hedging takes practice but it can be very beneficial. If you bet on a single team to cover a 2.5-point spread and they fall behind 7-0 after the opening drive, that is not the time to panic and hedge. Let it play out more than that. But if it’s the last leg of a parlay with high odds, then hedging at that point could be the right move to guarantee a win and allow you to relax for the rest of the game.
New Information Picked Up Watching the Game
The ideal way of doing in-play betting is to watch the game while you do it. This is especially true for island games like the prime-time games on Thursday, Sunday, and Monday nights. There should be more island games than ever in the 2024 season with multiple international games, a Black Friday game, and even 2 Wednesday games on Christmas. Many games to pay special attention to for bettors.
With your favorite sportsbook (or sportsbooks as you should do price shopping for certain things) open on your favorite device, you can maximize the new information you are learning from watching the game as you make your live bets.
For example, maybe you thought the game was going to be a defensive slugfest and the 1st quarter is 14-7. However, one touchdown was a lucky bounce that was intercepted for a touchdown, and the last touchdown was set up by a bad 45-yard penalty for pass interference. The offenses don’t actually look as great as the 14-7 score suggests.
In this case, the live total will jump to a much higher number than the pregame total. But instead of hedging your under with the new over, you might fare best by sticking to your guns and betting the under again at the new number. Expect some regression to the mean hit.
Learning from Past Games
We saw a little bit of this in the playoff game on wild-card weekend between the Texans and Browns. Joe Flacco and C.J. Stroud came out on fire to the point where their live props were well over 325 passing yards for both and with a game total over 64 points.
But with the Texans running away with the game, neither quarterback finished with more than 307 yards, and the game finished at 59 points. Going with the unders after a fast start was still the right call.
Impact of Injuries
Injuries can also dramatically change the way a game plays out. This is why it is important to know the main backups on a team. If the starting quarterback goes down, is the backup any good? Can he still get the receivers the ball or is it going to be a lost day for the passing game? If a star running back is injured, is the backup any good, or should we be hammering the overs on the passing and receiving props as the team abandons the run?
Jameis has the best arm of any backup in the NFL (also his football intellect is a massive asset in the QB Room and on the sidelines on game days)
slept on signing, even if he never plays a down, he provides a ton of value https://t.co/KYOjjbjuhp— Quincy Carrier (@Kwen_C) June 11, 2024
Speed is also a big part of in-play betting. Remember, even if you are watching the game on your TV or streaming device, the real-life action could still be 30 or 40 seconds ahead of your feed. Since the next play of a game can dramatically alter those live betting lines, you have to be fast to get your bets in before the next snap.
Next Touchdown Scorers
One of the best in-play betting markets for NFL games is the next touchdown scorer. You could bet on the game’s next touchdown scorer or one of the team’s next touchdown scorer. Again, this is where watching the game can be very useful in giving you actionable information.
Let’s say you have an inkling that a quarterback is going to throw a pick-six to the defense after getting away with some bad throws already in the game. You could bet on the defense to score the next touchdown, which is usually going to be very high odds and profitable if you hit it.
A team could be going to their running back at the goal line repeatedly and having success, so that might make him the best option for your next touchdown scorer. Probably best to make that bet before the drive starts instead of waiting until they get inside the 5.
Injuries can also inform this one. Last year, Cleveland’s star running back Nick Chubb was injured in the red zone. On the very next play, his replacement Jerome Ford caught a touchdown. Again, knowing the key backups and their roles in the offense can be very helpful.
Targeting Red Zone Efficiency
You could also see when a quarterback is making it a pointed effort to target a certain receiver in the red zone. Maybe they just miss on a touchdown early in the game and will come back to it later. You could use that information to bet the next touchdown scorer or just to bet on that player in general to score a touchdown in the rest of the game.
With the way in-play betting has become so popular, it is possible at many sportsbooks to do a live same-game parlay, making bets on the spread, the total, and player props together. That too can be a hedge on your pregame bets after seeing a quarter or two of action and how far off (or accurate) you were to thinking how this game was going to go.
Waiting for Key Numbers
In the NFL, there are many key numbers that bettors keep in mind for spreads and totals. This is due to most scores in the NFL being worth 3 points (field goal) and 7 points (touchdown with extra point). This makes spreads like 2.5 and 9.5 points much more favorable to bet on than covering spreads like 3 and 10 points.
Sportsbooks will allow you to bet on alternate spreads and totals before a game starts, but if the spread is -3, then you’re not going to get -110 odds (or better) if you take the alternate line of -2.5.
This is why sometimes you could just wait until the game is in action and take the live spread of -2.5 that you wanted all along at the better price. It could even happen on the 1st drive should the underdog get the ball first and moves it into scoring territory.
