The NFL is back with preseason action with moneylines you can bet at top-rated sportsbooks. But we are still eagerly anticipating the real games that count starting next month when the 2024 season officially begins.
It should be a good season with 31 teams trying to stop the Kansas City Chiefs from a Super Bowl 3-peat. We are also looking forward to a season that will hopefully feature more offense after points and yards dropped for a 3rd year in a row. Betting the under in every game has been profitable for the last 3 seasons running.
If there are more points, we also are looking for more comeback wins in 2024 as teams won just 29% of the games last year when trailing by 1-to-8 points in the 4th quarter. That number is usually around 35%.
With that in mind, we are sharing some tips and strategies in a comprehensive betting guide for mastering NFL moneylines. No covering the spread interest here. Let’s just find some winners.
Note: Most data used below is from the 2021-23 NFL seasons as they share similar traits in offensive efficiency in the post-COVID era. 2020 was the empty stadium year where scoring was at an all-time high. Things have calmed down since in this new era where a lot of Hall of Fame-caliber quarterbacks have retired and have been replaced by young quarterbacks still finding their way.
Early Betting Value and Price Shopping
No matter if you are betting on the moneyline, spread, or total, it is generally a good strategy to look at the earliest lines in the week to decide where the value lies.
If you like the favorite to win, you may want to place a moneyline bet as early as possible before the public goes heavy with the favorite too, driving up the spread and decreasing the value in the odds on the moneyline.
However, if you are feeling the underdog all the way like when the Chiefs beat the Bills in the 2023 divisional round and were going to be in Baltimore for the AFC Championship Game, then you may be better off waiting. Let the public doubt the underdog, hope the big money goes on the favorite, and jump in when the spread swings their way as well as the underdog’s moneyline odds will be better.
You should always be checking multiple sportsbooks for the best moneyline prices too. What’s -190 at one book could be -165 at another at the same time. Be sure to shop around before placing that bet.
Big Underdogs Are Fun But Not Profitable – Focus on Tighter Games Instead
In the NFL, it can be very tempting to pick the big underdogs with double-digit point spreads to win outright. Their moneylines are usually +400 or better, but that’s also because their chances of pulling it off are under 15%.
Since 1970, underdogs of 12-plus points only win 14.2% of the time in the NFL. That record is 6-49 (.109) over the last 3 seasons, and the winning rate is also 10.9% since 2007 as well. We’re lucky to see a couple of upset wins like this in an entire season.
Sure, the Eagles were collapsing in December last year, but did you really think Kyler Murray and the Cardinals would be the 2-touchdown underdog to go in there and steal a game? Ditto with rookie quarterback Will Levis and the Titans pulling off a shocker in Miami in December. Those were the 2 biggest upsets of 2023. Another was Dallas losing in Arizona (+11.5) as those Cardinals pulled it off a couple of times last season.
But maybe there is one discernible pattern for picking when a big favorite is going to choke and lose. You ignore the opponent and focus on the favorite. Teams like the Cowboys, Eagles, and Dolphins are sketchy with a history of coming up short in big games. If you see them facing a non-division opponent that isn’t familiar to them, maybe that’s the kind of game worth going with the upset for.
But the best general strategy for moneyline betting is to stick with the games with smaller spreads (1-3 points). Those games are practically a coin flip. Then it’s just a matter of looking for who has the edge in the passing game, who is healthier, who has been playing better recently, etc.
People usually assume home-field advantage is important, but we have seen that decrease in recent years. Since 2021, home underdogs of 1-to-3 points are just 57-83-1 SU (40.8%). In that same time, road underdogs of 1-to-3 points are 85-102 SU (45.5%). Backing the road team to win has been the better move in those small-spread games in recent seasons.
Pro Tip: Don’t Parlay Heavy Favorites
Favorites have won 65.6% of NFL games since 2021, so it can be tempting to do a parlay of the teams favored by the most points to all win that week. However, this isn’t college football. Upsets can happen, and even the best teams in this era can disappoint like the Cowboys did in Arizona last year as a 2-touchdown favorite.
Notice we don’t see as many undefeated season chases as we used to in the 2000s with Peyton Manning and Tom Brady leading their teams to great starts. Nowadays, teams blame a lack of preseason activity for sluggish September starts.
🏈On January 14, 1973, the Miami Dolphins won Super Bowl VII, becoming the first NFL team to finish the season undefeated pic.twitter.com/AyN6ukJ840
— RetroNewsNow (@RetroNewsNow) January 15, 2024
But let’s use some real data to show why the moneyline parlay is a bad strategy to employ.
Let’s say you look at the NFL schedule that week and identify the games with the biggest favorites by the point spread. You parlay them together and bet $100 on it, and you do this every week through Week 18.
Here is a rough estimate of what would have happened if you did this in the 2023 NFL season for the top 2-5 teams based on point spread to win each week:
- Top 2 Teams: Up $30 (13 winning weeks)
- Top 3 Teams: Down $390 (8 winning weeks)
- Top 4 Teams: Down $800 (4 winning weeks)
- Top 5 Teams: Down $1,134 (2 winning weeks)
That’s not good at all. There were only 2 weeks in the 2023 season where the top 5 favorites all won that week. Neither winning parlay had higher than +250 odds since the odds for the 5 teams to win were all high probability.
While there were 13 weeks with the top 2 teams winning, you’d still barely make any profit, and keep in mind the NFL week usually extends from Thursday to Monday, and sometimes those spreads can jump based on injury reports. So, that “Up $30” for playing the top 2 teams every week might not even work if you accidentally pick the wrong team/game for your parlay.
This strategy gets even less effective as the season goes on since the best teams distance themselves from the pack, making the moneyline odds even less valuable. However, this is a good example of using real data to show why parlays are generally bad ideas, even if you’re just picking 3 big favorites per week. It sounds like it should hit more, but it didn’t last year.
For those curious, the better strategy here last year would have been to place a single bet on the team with the biggest spread. If you did that to the tune of $100 per week, you’d be up $42.
Still not great, but you would have won in 16-of-18 weeks. In fact, you would have started 12-0, so rolling that over each week would have been a way to gain more profit. But if you kept it going for Monday night in Week 13, you would have been crushed when the 10-point favored Jaguars lost at home to Jake Browning and the Bengals in overtime in the game where Trevor Lawrence was injured.
A week later, the Dolphins (-13.5) blew an epic Monday night game against the Titans despite having the largest spread of the week. But generally speaking, the biggest favorite of the NFL week usually wins the game. But when their average odds are -750, it’s your call to decide how much to risk for a minimal payout.
Identify NFL Teams Who Rarely Go on Losing Streaks
The hallmark of a great team is to bounce back after a tough loss. Don’t start a losing streak. The Patriots did this very well all those years under Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, but here are the best teams in games after a loss since 2021:
- Dallas Cowboys, 13-2 (.867)
- Kansas City Chiefs, 12-2 (.857)
- Buffalo Bills, 12-3 (.800)
Betting on the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes is generally always a good strategy. Remember, he’s 10-3 SU (76.9%) as an underdog in his career too. The only NFL team since 2018 to have a winning record as an underdog is Pittsburgh, and that’s just barely at 26-24 SU (52%).
But seeing that the Cowboys under Mike McCarthy have been so great at bouncing back is a good note, especially since his reputation for adjusting is not stellar.
#Cowboys HC Mike McCarthy on the RB depth chart:
“It needs to solve itself… that’s really up to the players. That’s what the competition of training camp will solve.”
on Rico Dowdle:
“He’s showed flashes as a young player, but once he fought through those injuries, really,… pic.twitter.com/XgWEwzSqYk
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) August 5, 2024
Also, Cleveland coach Kevin Stefanski has been good at this since taking over the Browns in 2020. In that time, he is 20-9 SU (69%) after a loss, the 4th-best record in the NFL behind only those 3 teams above.
But another area where the Chiefs, Cowboys, and Bills have outshined the rest of the NFL since 2021 is in division games. They’re the only teams to win at least 75% of their division games over the last 3 years, and the only teams to win over 70% in the last 4 years.
Division Games: Familiarity Is a Double-Edged Sword
Division games are nice to bet on since we have more recent history to absorb with the teams meeting at least twice a year every year. But do division games produce more upsets than non-division games? Should we really just “throw the records out” when the teams know each other so well?
As it turns out, since division realignment in 2002, NFL favorites win 67.3% of the time in division games compared to 66.2% of the time in non-division games. So, favorites actually win more often in division games where that familiarity could also lead to one team just having the other’s number.
This is why the real strategy for division games is to have an intimate knowledge of each rivalry and make educated picks from there.
For example, the Steelers and Ravens are well known for playing each other close and often playing each other with their starting quarterback out. In the Lamar Jackson era since 2018, 9 of the last 12 Steelers-Ravens games (75%) have been won outright by the underdog. It helps that they usually play with a small spread in the range of 1-to-4 points.
Lamar Jackson playing with ’em 😱
(via @Ravens)pic.twitter.com/9gsE3oreVB
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) August 16, 2019
There’s also no level of familiarity that can make up for years-long one-sided affairs. The 2023 season saw 2 of the longest division winning streaks ever snap when the Broncos finally beat the Chiefs after a 16-game losing streak since 2015. The Jets also ended a 15-game losing streak to the Patriots, a clear sign that Bill Belichick’s reign was over in New England.
Live Betting the Moneyline
Finally, we wanted to mention the strategy of live or in-game betting on the moneyline. This can be a helpful way to hedge a pregame bet or take advantage of some valuable lines if you feel that the trailing team is in a position to pull off the comeback win.
Not to belabor the point on the Chiefs, but if you see them down double digits in a Super Bowl, just know they’re still 3-1 in those games. Some teams are simply built to come back, and some teams are known for choking like how the Matt Eberflus-coached Bears are 3-16 in close games the last 2 years. So, it was not that surprising when Chicago blew a 12-point lead in the final 5:00 in Detroit last season. The team already blew a 14-point lead in the 4th quarter against Denver.
If you see teams like the Falcons and Chargers leading a good opponent by a big margin, you know with their history that things could go south in a hurry. Those are the moments to pounce on the trailing team with a live bet.
February 5, 2017: The Falcons blow a 28-3 lead, and the Patriots win Super Bowl LI 34-28 in overtime in Houston.
pic.twitter.com/8rUyDYdDm1— This Day In Sports Clips (@TDISportsClips) February 5, 2024
However, live betting could be a great way to get a better line on a favorite that stumbles out of the gate. Instead of betting on a -600 favorite, you might be able to wait until halftime and get them at -200 or better based on how the game’s gone and if you still think they’re going to win. There can be a lot of value found with live betting as the lines can change drastically in a hurry from their pregame state.
Last season was unique in the way so many games were easy wins for the team leading early. In fact, 73.7% of NFL games in 2023 were won by the team leading after the 1st quarter. That’s up from what is usually a number in the low 60% range.
But that’s something you could have pounced on last year in live betting on the team leading after 15 minutes to win the game. We’ll see if that trend continues in 2024 or if comebacks and scoring will come roaring back.
