The NFL MVP race figures to be one of the most highly contested races for awards in the 2024 season. You know a quarterback is going to win it, and last year’s race was a long battle between several of them before Lamar Jackson finally pulled away in late December to win his second MVP award.
However, NFL betting sites are curiously making this a 2-way race between Josh Allen (+250 at BetOnline (check our BetOnline Review)) and Patrick Mahomes (+260), the duo many consider the best in the game today. The sportsbooks have Aaron Rodgers (+1400) and C.J. Stroud (+1400) tied for the 3rd-highest odds after Allen and Mahomes, but that’s a pretty large gap going into Week 4.
Who has the edge for NFL MVP so far? Which weeks are likely to shake it up the most? Which candidates are sleepers and good value picks today? Let’s look at it all after a rough start to the 2024 NFL season for quarterback play.
Josh Allen Is an Early MVP Favorite
Who needs diva wide receivers anyway? Josh Allen is off to an incredible start in 2024 with 7 touchdowns, no interceptions, and the highest QBR (92.6) and passer rating (133.7) in the NFL for the 3-0 Bills, who look like the best team right now. Allen also has the lowest sack rate in the league, and he continues to be a dual threat as he led the Bills in rushing yards in their blowout win over Jacksonville on Monday night.
So far, Allen is absolutely thriving after the team traded Stefon Diggs to Houston and let Gabe Davis walk in free agency. Khalik Shakir has emerged as the new No. 1 target for Allen, and he’s completed 14-of-14 passes to him for 168 yards and 2 touchdowns. Great stuff. Running back James Cook has also taken on a bigger role in the offense and is the team’s 2nd-leading receiver.
Josh Allen on Khalil Shakir
“I just love the fricking football player. I fricking love him”#BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/1S2DVzPo6F
— Mike Catalana (@MikeCatalana) September 24, 2024
Basically, Allen is off to the start that Patrick Mahomes had in 2022 when the Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill and people began to doubt how good they could still be. Mahomes proved those doubters wrong and won his second MVP and Super Bowl that year. Allen has similar goals in mind.
If you gave out the MVP award today, Allen would win it, but it’s only Week 3. There is plenty of time to go.
Josh Allen’s Golden Opportunity
If you had to knock Allen for his MVP case so far, it’s going to be that he’s beating up on the Cardinals, Dolphins, and Jaguars. At this rate, it doesn’t look like any of those teams will finish with a winning record this year, let alone make the playoffs. Allen also had to do very little in the Miami win as he had just 141 total yards in an easy 31-10 win.
However, the bigger games are coming starting this Sunday night in Baltimore. Not only will Allen be in prime time in a big game this week, he’ll face the Texans the following week in Houston, and then it’s a Monday night game in New York against the Jets in Week 6. That’s the situation where he had a bunch of turnovers in Week 1 last year in a loss, setting up the narrative for his season that he turns it over too much under the bright lights.
If Allen gets through this tough 3-game road stretch by outdueling his MVP contenders in Lamar Jackson, C.J. Stroud, and Aaron Rodgers, then he will likely have better than even odds by October 15. It’s a big if, but that is the golden opportunity ahead for Allen.
However, we’ve seen this before with Allen:
- He was the MVP front-runner in October in 2021 after taking down the Chiefs in a Sunday night game, but then he lost 9-6 in a disastrous game in Jacksonville and fell off.
- In 2022, Allen was again the MVP leader in November, then he lost to the Jets and Vikings in back-to-back games with big turnovers, and he became an afterthought for that award too, which was won by Mahomes.
We have to see him put it all together for a full season to win his 1st MVP award. So far, the play is there, the narrative of doing it without a proven No. 1 is there, and the Bills have some huge games coming up for Allen to build a huge lead and momentum for his MVP campaign.
The Schedule Problem for Allen
We just laid out how Allen can build a huge lead in the MVP race for October and November with the big games ahead, which is something he’s done before in 2021-22.
However, look at what happens the rest of the way with the schedule. The Chiefs come to Buffalo in Week 11 for their annual showdown, so that’s another big opportunity to get a win over Mahomes, his rival. Then after the bye week, the Bills are hosting the 49ers on Sunday Night Football, which might be their last island game this regular season in Week 13.
That means for the final 5 games, the Bills may not be featured in any big island games, which have proven huge in 2-of-3 MVP races since 2021. Tom Brady essentially blew his 2021 MVP case when Tampa Bay lost 9-0 at home to the Saints in a Sunday Night Football game late in the season. Last year, Brock Purdy blew his MVP odds when he threw 4 picks against Lamar Jackson’s Ravens in a big loss on Christmas night.
If Allen is lapping the competition in statistics and the Bills are the No. 1 seed, then it can be a moot point. But if not, then his biggest game in the last 5 might be Week 17 against the Jets, possibly a game against Rodgers to clinch the AFC East or No. 1 seed.
However, look at the rest of the schedule around that time. The Chiefs are going to host Houston in a big Saturday game in Week 16, then they’ll play at Pittsburgh (currently 3-0) on Christmas day. Houston will go from the showdown in Kansas City to hosting Baltimore on Christmas (Wednesday game), another big island game a lot of people will be watching.
We know the Chiefs and Texans don’t look as good as Buffalo right now, nor do the quarterbacks look as good as Allen. Mahomes is throwing too many interceptions, Travis Kelce isn’t getting any younger, and they have some big injuries like Isiah Pacheco and Hollywood Brown. Stroud’s Texans haven’t scored 20 points in consecutive games and might still be figuring things out together after adding Joe Mixon (injured) and Stefon Diggs (playing well).
Yet, a lot can change in 3 months. The online sportsbooks still see Mahomes and Stroud as the main competition for Allen for MVP, which makes sense. You can also fit Rodgers, a 4-time MVP, in there if he plays more like he did against the Patriots last week.
So, if Allen falters in December, these quarterbacks could all realistically leapfrog him by winning a huge game late in the year against one another, or if Rodgers were to beat Allen at home in Week 17. That’s the important long-term outlook on this race. First thing’s first, Allen needs to perform well in Baltimore this week or else he threatens to bring Lamar Jackson back into the conversation should he have a big game to knock off the Bills from the ranks of the unbeaten.
Best Sleeper and Value Picks for MVP?
It’s already been a wild season with defenses crushing offenses, and the biggest underdogs keep winning most of their games. Anything could happen at this point. We have some thoughts on MVP sleepers and value picks.
Sam Darnold (+2500 at BetOnline)
Can Sam Darnold really win MVP in Minnesota? It sounds insane, but he leads the NFL with 8 touchdown passes, he’s played well in every game, the Vikings are 3-0 when no one expected it, they’ve outscored the 49ers and Texans the last 2 weeks, and he should get more weapons back later when Jordan Addison and tight end T.J. Hockenson return.
Darnold has turned good September starts into bad seasons before, but what if this year was different? Head coach Kevin O’Connell has a quarterback-friendly offense, and Darnold is thriving in it right now. If he can do it for a 4th game in a row against the Packers, you really have to consider the possibility that he’s here to stay in this MVP race.
Never would have imagined that one a month ago.
Derek Carr (+6600 at BetOnline)
This was my MVP value pick after Week 2 when Carr set what is believed to be an NFL record when he opened this season with 15 straight scoring drives. This was a continuation from his hot play down the stretch in 2023, and new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has the Saints dominating big plays with play-action passing.
DEREK CARR has 30 game-winning drives since 2016.
THIRTY.
More than ANYONE.@Saints @derekcarrqb pic.twitter.com/21o15gaKjF
— Kay Adams (@heykayadams) August 22, 2024
However, Week 3 threw a lot of cold water on this as Carr really struggled with the Eagles, who are not a great defense by any means. He lost 15-12 at home in that one, so we may not have an offensive juggernaut in New Orleans again after all.
Jayden Daniels (+10000 at BetOnline)
Talk about the sleeper of sleepers, can a rookie quarterback really win MVP? It has never happened in the Super Bowl era, but then again, Jayden Daniels just became the 1st quarterback in NFL history to lead his offense to consecutive games without a punt or turnover. Incredible stuff, and he looked absolutely legitimate in dropping the Bengals to 0-3 on Monday night.
You’re probably better off taking a chance on Daniels leading an upset division title in the NFC East or just making the playoffs period, but for +10000 odds, why not sprinkle in some Daniels MVP love right now?
Brock Purdy (+2200 at BetOnline)
Purdy led the NFL in a variety of efficiency stats in 2023 and may have won the MVP award if he didn’t save his worst moment for Christmas night against the Ravens. There’s also that stigma working against him that he’s a product of Kyle Shanahan’s system and the elite weapons around him.
However, what happens if those weapons aren’t around because of an extreme rash of injuries? Purdy just played a near-flawless game against the Rams without George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Christian McCaffrey available. He completed 11-of-12 passes for 175 yards and 3 touchdowns to Jauan Jennings, who looked like Jerry Rice on Sunday.
Richard Sherman on Brock Purdy’s play against the Rams:
“I thought this was a statement game for Brock Purdy because they say he can’t do it without his weapons… He threw for almost 300 yards, 3 touchdowns, no interceptions and ran the ball for 41 yards. He’s a good… pic.twitter.com/qOkHXrxS1Z
— Coach Yac 🗣 (@Coach_Yac) September 23, 2024
The 49ers still lost because in going 22-of-30 for nearly 300 yards, Purdy’s receivers hurt him with 6 dropped passes, including a killer one by Ronnie Bell that should have set up a game-winning field goal, assuming Jake Moody could make a clutch kick after he missed one that allowed the Rams to tie and eventually win the game.
With McCaffrey seeking 2nd medical opinion in Germany for his Achilles injury, maybe this is the season people finally acknowledge that Purdy is legitimately great at playing quarterback. He’ll just have to make sure the 49ers, who are 1-2, get back on track and win the NFC West again if he’s going to win MVP honors.
Conclusion: Allen’s Award to Lose
With so many slow starts for passing games around the league, the Bills looking this dominant with a young group of weapons around Allen is very impressive. The schedule is tough for the next 3 weeks, but it’s a chance for Allen to outshine many of his main competitors for MVP.
Again, it’s a whole new ballgame if he implodes and gets outclassed in one of these games by Jackson, Stroud, or Rodgers. But if he doesn’t, then he’s going to have a significant lead that he’ll just need to maintain down the stretch. If you took Allen before the season, you should feel great. I probably wouldn’t pull the trigger at +250 today as it’s so early and these things usually fluctuate greatly over the next few months.
However, one thing you don’t want to do is bet on Joe Burrow (+2000 at BetOnline) since the Bengals are 0-3, and their chances of making the playoffs are slim to none. You can’t win MVP on a non-playoff team. We already highlighted our favorite sleepers in Darnold, Purdy, Daniels, and even Carr.
Another thing I’d probably do is fade Mahomes right now. You could look at his numbers through 3 games in his MVP years in 2018 and 2022 and they blow away where he’s at right now in 2024:
- They can’t make Kelce younger.
- Xavier Worthy has no route tree.
- Isiah Pacheco might be out for 2 months.
- Hollywood Brown isn’t playing in the regular season.
- It’s basically Rashee Rice or bust.
- Andy Reid isn’t calling his best plays right now.
That just doesn’t look like an MVP-ready offense at this point.
Stroud was my preseason pick and there’s still good value there. However, he has to turn things around this week, and it will be crucial for him to outplay Allen in Week 5. Not to mention those crucial games late in the year against the Chiefs and Ravens. But if he can do that in the biggest games, then he’ll have his MVP case.
Still, right now, it’s hard to go against Allen. We need to see him do it against the better competition, but it really does feel like losing Diggs has been good for his decision-making, and he’s ready to turn in his most complete season yet.
However, there is a long way to go here, and nothing seems very trustworthy in the NFL in 2024.
