The NFL is releasing the 2025 schedule on Wednesday night, but we have known the opponents for every team for months. Another thing we know about the NFL is that it averages 4.4 new division winners every year in a league with 8 divisions since 2002.
We actually just had a 2024 season where there were only 2 new division winners with the Eagles winning the NFC East and the Rams winning the NFC West. That ties 2012 and 2014 for the fewest new division winners in the 8-division era since 2002. There were 3 new division winners in 2013 and 2015.
The AFC in particular has been very consistent, with the Chiefs winning 9 straight AFC West titles, the 2nd-longest streak in NFL history. The Bills have won the AFC East for the last 5 years, picking up where the Patriots left off after their 11-year streak (2009-19).
But which divisions may be up for grabs in 2025, and which team is the best bet right now to take control of them? We look at the NFL sportsbooks to find our 3 favorite bets for new division winners in 2025.
AFC North
Here are the current odds from BetOnline (check our BetOnline Review)
for the 2025 AFC North winner:
- Baltimore Ravens (-145)
- Cincinnati Bengals (+225)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (+500)
- Cleveland Browns (+2500)
The AFC North has been won by the Baltimore Ravens the last 2 years, the 6th time it has had a repeat winner since its inception in 2002. However, no team has ever won the AFC North 3 years in a row, so maybe the Ravens are not the right pick for 2025 to be a 3-peat winner.
Reasons to Doubt the Ravens
Baltimore (12-5) had a good season before coming up short again in the playoffs. But you could argue the team should have won more than 12 games, given the blown lead against the Raiders and an ugly loss in Cleveland after safety Kyle Hamilton inexplicably dropped a game-ending interception thrown by Jameis Winston.
But here are some reasons to think the Ravens could take a step back in 2025:
- Lamar Jackson had just 4 interceptions last year and the offense as a whole had 11 giveaways before succumbing to them in the playoff loss in Buffalo. Turnovers love to regress to the mean, so there should be more on their stat sheet in 2025.
- The Ravens just released kicker Justin Tucker in favor of a rookie, and while Tucker was on the decline, you never know how a rookie will perform. Just ask Jake Moody on the 49ers.
- Derrick Henry was fantastic last year in his team debut, but he is 31 years old this season and there is a ton of tread on those tires, so you never know when injury can do him in as he’s at the “fall off a cliff” age for a running back.
- Health can also regress to the mean, and Baltimore’s offense was incredibly healthy last year with only 3 missed games combined among the 7 players who touched the ball the most on offense.
- Starting safety Ar’Darius Washington just tore his Achilles and will likely miss the 2025 season, so rookie Malaki Starks will have to contribute right away.
The New Team to Back
The Cleveland Browns are projected to be among the worst teams in the NFL this year, and the Pittsburgh Steelers voluntarily got rid of their leading passer, rusher, and receiver while still not having a viable starting quarterback on the roster in May.
The team that offers the best value in the AFC North right now is the Cincinnati Bengals. They certainly need to pay Trey Hendrickson and fix that situation before he starts holding out for real games. But if they can get him back to go with their 1st-round pick, Shemar Stewart, then they’ll feel better about their pass rush this year.
It’s hard for the defense to be any worse than it was when the team still finished 9-8 and was right there with the Ravens in both losses. In fact, the Bengals could have won the AFC North last year had Joe Burrow not thrown an interception in the final minutes at home to help the Ravens tie the game for overtime, and then the Bengals blew another fourth-quarter lead in the rematch on a Thursday night.
The Bengals paid their wideouts to make Burrow happy. It’s time he pays them back with a great season where the Bengals even win some shootouts and games in crunch time after losing so many last year. The Bengals were only 1-4 at comeback opportunities last season.
The AFC North is always a grind, but the Bengals were closer last year to winning it than it seems, and they could close the gap for sure this year with help from Pittsburgh possibly declining and getting a sweep there and a split with the Ravens. That could be more than enough to get to 10 or 11 wins and win the AFC North.
NFL Pick: 2025 AFC North Winner – Cincinnati Bengals (+225) at BetOnline
NFC East
Here are the current odds from BetOnline for the 2025 NFC East winner:
- Philadelphia Eagles (-180)
- Washington Commanders (+240)
- Dallas Cowboys (+700)
- New York Giants (+2200)
While the Eagles are the reigning champs, the NFC East has one of the craziest streaks in the NFL that’s still active. No one has won the division in consecutive years since the Eagles did it in 2001-04. In that time, every other division has had multiple repeat winners, so this is some unbelievable parity.
Reasons to Doubt the Eagles
Truthfully, it’s hard to find flaws with the Eagles as they look to repeat. They return largely the same offensive cast that was very good last year with the addition of Saquon Barkley helping to give them the identity they had in 2022 when they were in the Super Bowl too. The biggest loss may actually be at coordinator again after Kellen Moore took the New Orleans job.
Defensively, the Eagles lost half of that starting front with Josh Sweat (Cardinals) and Milton Williams (Patriots) signing big deals in free agency. However, they still have Jalen Carter, and they added linebacker Jihaad Campbell in the 1st round after he could have easily gone much higher.
It’s just a matter of how much the Eagles still want it after tasting a championship. Do guys get complacent with the one ring, or do they want to try to get a dynasty like the Chiefs?
The fact is, Washington was the only team to beat the Eagles after September ended last season. That NFC Championship Game also could have been more competitive if the Commanders hadn’t lost 3 fumbles.
Speaking of fumbles, those regress to the mean, and the Eagles had a lot of recoveries last year after successfully punching out so many balls. They also had a record number of long touchdown runs from Barkley, so that shouldn’t repeat itself either.
Throw in some injury concerns for Jalen Hurts as a running quarterback who averages one of the highest carry averages at his position in NFL history, and maybe there’s just enough here to think the Eagles can continue this trend of no one repeating in the NFC East.
Oh, it would also be bad if the NFL decides to ban the Tush Push at the owner meeting next week. A vote will be held and it could go 50/50. That’s a bread-and-butter play for this team.
The New Team to Back
The Giants are still a mess with a confusing quarterback room with veterans Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston trying to hold off rookie Jaxson Dart this year. The Dallas Cowboys are likely going to be improved after injuries to their best players hurt last year, but they also have a rookie coach (Brian Schottenheimer) and that could be a bumpy start.
The team to back is the Washington Commanders. Jayden Daniels had arguably the best rookie quarterback season ever as he elevated the talent around him, and they’ve upgraded the talent around him this year by trading for proven veterans like Deebo Samuel and Laremy Tunsil.
Daniels showed he could get it done in the clutch too, and he threw 5 touchdowns to beat the Eagles in the regular season despite the Commanders losing 3 fumbles in that game too. He also reached the NFC Championship Game with a below-average defense, so the Commanders stand to improve on that side of the ball in Dan Quinn’s 2nd season on the job.
We kind of thought C.J. Stroud would do this in 2024 after his stellar rookie season and it didn’t quite materialize for the Texans. However, maybe Daniels can follow in the footsteps of quarterbacks who had incredible rookie seasons like Dan Marino (1983), Ben Roethlisberger (2004), and Russell Wilson (2012). They all reached the Super Bowl in Year 2 with Roethlisberger and Wilson winning it all.
If you believe in Daniels, then picking the Commanders to win the NFC East while the Eagles take a step back feels like the logical value play in the division.
NFL Pick: 2025 NFC East Winner – Washington Commanders (+240) at BetOnline
NFC South
Here are the current odds from BetOnline to win the NFC South in 2025:
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+115)
- Atlanta Falcons (+250)
- Carolina Panthers (+450)
- New Orleans Saints (+500)
The NFC South has gotten rather predictable with 4-year reigns by the Saints (2017-20) and Buccaneers (2021-24) as the Falcons and Panthers haven’t been in the playoffs at all since 2017. But maybe it’s time for a change in 2025.
Reasons to Doubt the Buccaneers
Despite a 27-24 record since 2022, the Buccaneers continue winning this division, where 9-8 or 10-7 can get the job done. But Tampa Bay’s approach has largely been to bring the same players back, such as veterans Lavonte David and Mike Evans, who are among the longest-tenured players in the NFL today.
But what if this strategy is what’s keeping the team from flourishing and winning more than 10 games? Evans is at the age where he could fall off a cliff, and Chris Godwin is coming off a serious injury. That’s why the team used its 1st-round pick on another wideout in Emeka Egbuka, but that pick is likely to pay more dividends down the road than in 2025 when he truthfully doesn’t have to be more than the WR4 if everyone is healthy.
The Buccaneers have weapons, though they did lose offensive coordinator Liam Coen to the Jaguars, and he did a good job last year to help Baker Mayfield to a career year. But even a career year included 16 interceptions and 13 fumbles, numbers that led or tied for the league lead.
Defensively, the Buccaneers were middle of the pack, and they seemed to have few answers for the Falcons and Panthers in division games they were 1-3 in, and maybe the Saints can improve under rookie coach Kellen Moore.
Tampa was No. 1 on offense at converting on 3rd down, and unless you have Peyton Manning or Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, that number often regresses the following year.
There are reasons to still like the Buccaneers, but there’s nothing to love about them staying on top in 2025.
The New Team to Back
The Saints have a tough road ahead with a rookie coach and quarterback (Tyler Shough) after Derek Carr surprisingly retired this past weekend. They also have a lot of overpaid veterans hogging up cap space.
The Panthers are going to be a trendy dark horse pick this year, and it makes sense if you think Bryce Young’s late-season turnaround was real and significant enough to lead him on the right path this year for a 3rd-year breakout. Those are a rarity in this league.
But give me the Atlanta Falcons, a team that shredded the Buccaneers last year, has a very promising young quarterback in Michael Penix Jr. at the controls, and he has great weapons like Drake London and Bijan Robinson behind a solid offensive line.
The defense’s improvement is the other reason to like Atlanta to return to the playoffs for the first time in 8 years. Raheem Morris lacked young talent last year and Matt Judon was a disappointment. That’s why the Falcons used 2 picks in the 1st round to upgrade the pass rush with Jalon Walker and James Pearce, a pair of athletic edge rushers.
It’s a winnable division, and the Buccaneers are not a team that will intimidate the Falcons. Obviously, the pick hinges on Penix developing into a good starter, but what he did in 3 starts was promising enough. Don’t fault him for the defense giving up game-winning touchdowns in overtime after Penix delivered in the clutch.
The Penix draft pick was highly controversial with Kirk Cousins already there, but it could be the pick that leads to a division title as soon as 2025.
NFL Pick: 2025 NFC South Winner – Atlanta Falcons (+250) at BetOnline
