Top Pick
- Offensive Player of the Year 2024 – Puka Nacua (+2000) at BetOnline
Out of all the major NFL awards for the 2024 season, the Offensive Player of the Year odds might offer the most value for betting opportunities in the offseason. Last year it was a tight race between San Francisco running back Christian McCaffrey and Miami wide receiver Tyreek Hill. The award swung largely on a late-season injury to Hill, who was pursuing a 2,000-yard receiving season.
McCaffrey is the favorite to repeat as he has +625 odds at BetOnline (check our BetOnline Review), a top-rated sportsbook. He leads Hill (+700) and Dallas wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (+900), who finished 3rd with 45 vote points last year. McCaffrey won the award with 222 vote points to 139 for Hill.
No one has won this award in back-to-back years since Marshall Faulk pulled off a 3-peat for the 1999-01 Rams and the Greatest Show on Turf offense.
Let’s look at the 2024 betting odds for the NFL Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) award, why it has recently been treated differently from the MVP award, and the players we are targeting at each position for our top picks this year.
Trends for NFL Offensive Player of the Year Winners
The Associated Press has voted for the OPOY award every year since 1972. That means we have 52 seasons of data on this award, and some trends have emerged from that.
First, we should point out that 48 of the 52 winners (92.3%) played for a team that made the playoffs, and all 52 played for a team that did not have a losing record. A few teams missed the playoffs, but they never finished worse than 8-8.
If you put up great offensive stats to be considered for this award, your team should not have a losing record. It’s really that simple.
Here is the positional breakdown of the 52 winners of the OPOY award:
- 27 running backs
- 20 quarterbacks
- 5 wide receivers
No tight end or offensive lineman has ever won OPOY, and that is unexpected to change in the 2024 season. But it is still surprising to see just how few wide receivers have won this award. In fact, Jerry Rice, who won it twice in 1987 and 1993, was the only wide receiver to win OPOY before 2019. Since then, Michael Thomas (2019), Cooper Kupp (2021), and Justin Jefferson (2022) have made up 3 of the last 5 winners.
Unlike the MVP award, quarterbacks do not dominate the OPOY award. While quarterbacks have been more likely to win this award in recent times, the count of winners since 2004 is still just 9 quarterbacks, 8 running backs, and 3 wideouts. So, the running backs are on equal ground with the quarterbacks here.
A big part of that may be the voters’ recent desire to make this award separate from the MVP.
Differences from the MVP Award
We know the NFL’s MVP award is dominated by the quarterback position, with 16 of the last 17 winners being a quarterback since 2007. It is almost always an offensive player who wins MVP.
But in terms of doubling up as MVP and OPOY, that has only happened 28 times (53.8%) since 1972. So, barely over half of the time the award winner doubles up in these awards.
Initially, 11 of the first 14 winners (78.6%) of OPOY were also MVP that season.
From 1986-2003, only 7-of-18 OPOY winners (38.9%) also won MVP. Since 2004, 10-of-20 OPOY winners (50%) won MVP.
The Focus Is on Running Backs and Wide Receivers
More recently, the last 5 OPOY winners have not won MVP, with voters looking at OPOY as more of a way to award a special running back or wide receiver season. It also helps that we had a few weak MVP races in 2021 and 2023 where no quarterback was able to run away with things statistically to warrant winning OPOY too.
Patrick Mahomes (2018 Chiefs) is the last player to win MVP and OPOY in the same season when he did it in his 1st season as a starter.
Unlike the MVP award, you really do not have to be on a great team that wins 12-plus games to win OPOY. In fact, leading the NFL in a yardage statistic is a key benchmark for winning OPOY. Of the 52 winners, 38 led the league in at least one category of passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, or yards from scrimmage.
Only 5 out of 52 OPOY winners did not lead the NFL in any volume-related yardage or touchdown statistic. Three were quarterbacks on highly-efficient offenses like Ken Anderson (1981 Bengals), Joe Montana (1989 49ers), and Matt Ryan (2016 Falcons). They all were No. 1 in many passing efficiency metrics in those seasons rather than volume.
Stats Leaders?
Only Joe Theismann (1983 Redskins) and Terrell Davis (1996 Broncos) won OPOY without leading the NFL in any major statistic (volume or rate) that season. That’s probably why the 1996 vote was one of the closest ever with Davis getting 36.5 votes to edge out Green Bay quarterback and 1996 NFL MVP Brett Favre, who had 34 votes.
You have to think of someone with a good shot to win a rushing or receiving title, or a quarterback who is going to lead the league in touchdown passes.
One final note: 80% (16 of 20) of the quarterbacks who win OPOY go on to win MVP. That is the position most likely to double up on these awards.
2024 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds and Candidates
In the next 3 sections, we are going to break down our favorite choice for the 2024 OPOY award for quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers.
Quarterbacks: The Player with Insane Value
While this has not been a quarterback award as of late, we did want to note the value in odds for a certain MVP candidate. Incredibly, he is only tied for the 14th-best odds among quarterbacks at BetOnline, and none of the top 16 overall players in odds for OPOY are quarterbacks.
These odds might actually be too disrespectful to the quarterback position:
- Jalen Hurts, Eagles (+2800)
- Anthony Richardson, Colts (+3300)
- Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (+4000)
- Lamar Jackson, Ravens (+4000)
- Joe Burrow, Bengals (+4000)
- Justin Fields, Steelers (+5000)
- Josh Allen, Bills (+5000)
- Jordan Love, Packers (+5000)
- Justin Herbert, Chargers (+5000)
- Caleb Williams, Bears (+5500)
- Brock Purdy, 49ers (+5500)
- Kyler Murray, Cardinals (+5500)
- Dak Prescott, Cowboys (+6000)
- Aaron Rodgers, Jets (+8000)
- Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (+8000)
- Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins (+8000)
- Deshaun Watson, Browns (+8000)
- C.J. Stroud, Texans (+8000)
That’s 18 quarterbacks in a 32-team league, including a rookie (Caleb Williams) and a likely backup (Justin Fields in Pittsburgh). That’s very weird.
Amazing Value on C.J. Stroud
Who is our target here? Yep, it’s C.J. Stroud, an MVP candidate with the 3rd-highest MVP odds (+900) at BetOnline.
We know voters have been shying away from doubling up at MVP and OPOY, failing to do so in the last 5 years. But the previous longest stretch of doing that was 3 years, so you could say we are overdue for a season where a quarterback has a fantastic statistical season and wins both awards.
This happened 4 times for quarterbacks in 2013-18 with Peyton Manning (2013 Broncos), Cam Newton (2015 Panthers), Matt Ryan (2016 Falcons), and Patrick Mahomes (2018 Chiefs). It’s happened 16 times overall since 1972.
As a refresher on why we like Stroud for MVP this year, it’s because he already led the NFL as a rookie in passing yards per game and lowest interception rate. His numbers could only get better after the team added Stefon Diggs from Buffalo, and if he continues to excel in his 2nd year of running offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik’s system. Stroud has arguably the deepest and best collection of skill players in the league if Diggs is still a top-tier receiver and Tank Dell improves in his 2nd season.
CJ Stroud’s Rookie Season:
274 YPG (1st)
8.2 YPA (2nd)
5 INTs (lowest of qualifying starters)
101.7 Passer Rating (3rd)
76.4 Passer Rating when Pressured (7th)
112.9 Passer Rating when Kept Clean (2nd)
142.5 Passer Rating on Deep Throws (1st)We coming for MVP next year ✍️ https://t.co/9WE8Dwz3e5 pic.twitter.com/3SBZoqTtTC
— Jacob (@Stroud4AllPro) May 6, 2024
Stroud also gets the late-season push from the schedule that he could use to put the cherry on top of his award resume. The Texans will be in Kansas City in Week 16 on a Saturday afternoon, then they’ll host the Ravens on Christmas Day. If Stroud lights it up in those games, he could end up with all the hardware in one of the best sophomore seasons in NFL history if this potential is realized for what Houston is building.
But the reason to like Stroud for OPOY too is the way he played as a rookie. He had volume and efficiency, and he spread the ball around as 3 different receivers had multiple games with 140 receiving yards.
Other Candidates
Wide receiver Nico Collins and running back Joe Mixon actually have the same +8000 odds for OPOY as Stroud, which sounds nuts. Imagine if Stroud has a season where he throws for 4,500-plus yards, over 40 touchdowns, and single-digit interceptions while spreading the ball around to his weapons.
Stroud shouldn’t have to lean heavily on just Diggs or Collins. In fact, Diggs having +2500 odds for OPOY is poor value. He’s unlikely to lead the league in any major receiving category with this much talent around him in Houston.
That should be enough to get him MVP and OPOY. Rarely do you feel some confidence about a +8000 pick, but this is too good of a value to pass up right now. Really, Justin Fields has better odds than Stroud for this? That’s not a good bet. Take a chance with Stroud and you could even work him into award parlays for OPOY while leaving MVP out of it.
NFL Pick: Offensive Player of the Year 2024 – C.J. Stroud (+8000) at BetOnline
Running Backs: King Henry Back on Top in Baltimore?
Here are the best odds from BetOnline for some top running back candidates for OPOY this season:
- Christian McCaffrey, 49ers (+625)
- Bijan Robinson, Falcons (+1600)
- Derrick Henry, Ravens (+1800)
- Breece Hall, Jets (+2000)
- Kyren Williams, Rams (+2200)
- Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions (+2500)
- Saquon Barkley, Eagles (+2500)
- Jonathan Taylor, Colts (+2800)
Injuries have been hard to shake at this position, and we have already seen the likes of Saquon Barkley, Breece Hall, and Jonathan Taylor suffer significant injuries that cost them too many games. Barkley hasn’t played a full season since his 2018 rookie year.
You have to be very durable and productive to win this award as a running back. Of the 10 OPOY winners since 2002 at the running back position, 8 of them won the rushing title that season, and the other 2 who didn’t (Todd Gurley in 2017 and Priest Holmes in 2002) led the league in yards from scrimmage and touchdowns scored.
Does Christian McCaffrey Have a Chance?
Can McCaffrey go back-to-back and lead the NFL again in yards and touchdowns? He’s been automatic in that San Francisco offense, but it also felt like his season wasn’t spectacular enough to win this award most years, and Hill’s ankle injury that slowed his progress really helped CMC win it in the end.
McCaffrey plays in a great offense that can help him put up numbers, but the last time he led the league in touches, he was injured for the season after 3 games in 2020. There are better values to pursue in this category for a new winner this year.
CMC’s best plays from his Offensive Player of the Year season! pic.twitter.com/CKM97itomA
— NFL (@NFL) February 19, 2024
Who Should You Fade?
You also probably don’t want to trust Breece Hall as the Jets just could not run the ball last year behind that line. They did upgrade the line, Aaron Rodgers is coming back, and Hall should be healthier after another season removed from his ACL rookie as an injury. But this offense is still very much an experiment, and it would be a surprise to see a running back win a rushing title in a Rodgers-led offense.
You also want to fade Jahmyr Gibbs as he has to share the ball with so many talented players in Detroit, who had 4 players score double-digit touchdowns last year. They may very well feature Gibbs more than David Montgomery this season, but don’t expect those Barry Sanders-type numbers from Gibbs in 2024.
Bijan Robinson is an interesting choice in Atlanta as we know the Falcons will feed him the ball more with passes in a higher volume passing game now that Kirk Cousins is there. But again, does the presence of Cousins take away from the potential of Robinson if they’re going to throw more? Robinson only scored 8 touchdowns last year, and half of those were on catches. He also did not eclipse 1,000 yards rushing in 17 games. He should be better this season, but he might not be ready for an award-winning season.
Kyren Williams plays in a very good Sean McVay offense that has already produced a running back that’s won OPOY in Todd Gurley in 2017. There could be some value to that pick, but we have more thoughts on the Rams below.
Look out For Derrick Henry
The best pick here is Derrick Henry. The injury risk is higher than most since he’s 30 years old and has led the league in carries in 4-of-5 seasons since 2019. But he has largely been durable throughout this run, and he should feel energized in going to a new team that will love feeding him the ball after the Ravens lost Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins. Playing with Lamar Jackson behind a solid offensive line should do wonders for Henry’s legs.
I mean it when I say this, the #NFL ain’t ready for Derrick Henry as a Raven!
It’s gonna be bad for everyone else.
Can’t wait 😈 #RavensFlock pic.twitter.com/O8PGxkFz2u
— Nic Mason (@British_Raven19) May 22, 2024
He won this award in 2020 when he led the NFL with 2,027 rushing yards and 17 touchdown runs. If they give him the Edwards role of being a goal-line back, we could see Henry lead the NFL in total touchdowns scored for the 1st time if this all goes well for Baltimore.
Also, we know the Ravens are not a prolific passing team, and Jackson’s MVP was basically by default last year after every other candidate played themselves out of it. The Ravens will give Henry all the opportunities he needs to win another rushing title, which would be his 3rd.
NFL Pick: Offensive Player of the Year 2024 – Derrick Henry (+1800) at BetOnline
Wide Receivers: Overvalued or the New Favorite Position for OPOY?
Finally, here are the top wide receiver candidates for OPOY with their odds from BetOnline:
- Tyreek Hill, Dolphins (+700)
- CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys (+900)
- Justin Jefferson, Vikings (+1200)
- Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals (+1200)
- Puka Nacua, Rams (+2000)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions (+2500)
- Garrett Wilson, Jets (+2500)
- Stefon Diggs, Bills (+2500)
While 3 wide receivers have won OPOY since 2019, it has historically not been a good award for this position. They only make up 9.6% of the winners since 1972 with just a handful of wideouts taking home the award.
To win this award as a wide receiver, you better be prolific. Here is what the winners led the NFL in the season they won OPOY:
- Jerry Rice, 1987 49ers: Led NFL in touchdown catches (22, set NFL record), receiving yards per game (89.8), and total touchdowns (23) in just 12 games played.
- Jerry Rice, 1993 49ers: Led NFL in receiving yards (1,503), touchdown catches (15), and total touchdowns (16).
- Michael Thomas, 2019 Saints: Led NFL in catches (149; single-season record) and receiving yards (1,725).
- Cooper Kupp, 2021 Rams: Won NFL’s triple crown in receiving with the most catches (145), yards (1,947), and touchdown catches (16).
- Justin Jefferson, 2022 Vikings: Led NFL in catches (128) and receiving yards (1,809).
Leading the league in receiving yards has been a must. We’ll give Rice a pass in 1987 since he still scored 23 touchdowns in 12 games and had the best per-game yardage in a strike-shortened season. But you better lead in yards, touchdown catches, or both.
Who We’re Fading
This is why it’s hard to trust Diggs to do it this year in Houston after a slow finish to 2023 in Buffalo, and he’ll have to share the ball with Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and tight end Dalton Schultz. For similar reasons, Amon-Ra St. Brown plays in an offense with a lot of mouths to feed in Detroit, so that doesn’t feel like the pick either.
Justin Jefferson was injured last year, but his numbers might take a step back even if he stays healthy, with a rookie quarterback (J.J. McCarthy) likely throwing him most of his passes this year.
If Davante Adams could never get a single vote for OPOY with Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback in Green Bay, what makes us think Garrett Wilson can do it with a soon to be 41-year-old Rodgers in New York?
If Joe Burrow stays healthy in Cincinnati, then Ja’Marr Chase might be worth some plays for this with Tyler Boyd gone as the big slot receiver. That could mean more targets for Chase, though if we’re being honest, he still hasn’t topped his rookie season.
Things Have Changed
CeeDee Lamb was fantastic down the stretch last year and the Cowboys could end up leaning on him even more this season. But can he actually improve on a career year with 135 catches and 1,749 yards? You usually want to bet against a player doing that.
It’s easy to like what Tyreek Hill is doing in Miami under Mike McDaniels, but his final 2023 numbers ended up looking a lot like his 2022 numbers. He had 119 catches both years on 170 or 171 targets for just under 1,800 yards. Just had a few more touchdowns after taking advantage of some worse defenses on deep balls last year.
But without taking his game to another level now that he’s 30 years old and reportedly expecting his 4th child in the last 12 months, does he have that historic 2,000-yard season in him, or have we already seen the best of Tyreek in the NFL?
Puka Nacua’s Expectations
The player to like here is Puka Nacua on the Rams. He already blew away all expectations last year when he set rookie records for catches (105) and receiving yards (1,486). He proved when Cooper Kupp came back that he can still be productive for Matthew Stafford, who is a veteran quarterback and one of the best in the league. In the playoff loss in Detroit, maybe that was a passing of the torch from Kupp to Nacua as the No. 1 in Los Angeles since Nacua had 181 yards and a touchdown.
Sean McVay has already coached Gurley (2017) and Kupp (2021) to OPOY award-winning seasons. Kupp has durability issues and could always end up missing time, helping Nacua pile up huge numbers.
Sean McVay on the development of Puka Nacua #Ramshouse pic.twitter.com/q50JDMbxWD
— Nick Hamilton (@NickHamilton213) May 21, 2024
He had one of the best rookie receiving seasons ever. Maybe Nacua is ready to win a receiving title and challenge for his own Triple Crown receiving season in 2024.
NFL Pick: Offensive Player of the Year 2024 – Puka Nacua (+2000) at BetOnline
Conclusion
We just explained our favorite NFL picks for 2024 Offensive Player of the Year in C.J. Stroud, Derrick Henry, and Puka Nacua. Our other best advice is to get creative with this award as it has been more volatile and unpredictable than the awards like MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, and even the Rookie of the Year awards.
It was just in 2021 when Cooper Kupp won it as a +8000 underdog for the Rams. Maybe another +8000 underdog can win it this year in C.J. Stroud, or maybe another Ram can win it in Nacua.
Just remember you are trying to identify players who can lead the league in a major offensive category this year. Volume matters more than efficiency too for this award.
