One of Bill Belichick’s famous quotes is that football season starts after Thanksgiving. The Patriots may be out of the playoff race with the worst record in the AFC (2-8) this year, but there are many other teams in the hunt for qualifying for the tournament to lead to Super Bowl 58 in February.
Do we see a Super Bowl rematch in back-to-back years for only the 2nd time in history? The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles were the No. 1 seeds going into Week 11, but Philadelphia’s comeback win dropped the Chiefs to No. 2 behind Baltimore.
How are the NFL playoff brackets shaping up after Thanksgiving in Week 12? We look at each conference below so you can consider it when betting at the top NFL sportsbooks.
Current AFC Bracket: Ravens Lead the Pack
Here are the current playoff seedings in the AFC:
- Baltimore (8-3)
- Kansas City (7-3)
- Jacksonville (7-3)
- Miami (7-3)
- Cleveland (7-3)
- Houston (6-4)
- Pittsburgh (6-4)
With 5 teams close behind with records like 6-5 (No. 8 Buffalo) and 5-5, you can expect this to look different when January arrives.
Baltimore is a considerable favorite to win the AFC North after sweeping Cincinnati, which lost Joe Burrow (wrist) for the season. But the Ravens have blown 3 leads in the 4th quarter this season, they just lost star tight end Mark Andrews to a serious injury, and they still have to play the Jaguars and 49ers on the road followed by a big game with Miami. It looks like a team that is not going to win out the rest of the way and easily claim this No. 1 seed.
This sure could be one of those seasons where no one wins more than 12 games in the AFC, which is what happened in 2021 when Tennessee was the No. 1 seed with a 12-5 record.
The Chiefs (+110) still have much better odds at the top-rated offshore sportsbook to claim the No. 1 seed than the Ravens (+430) do. Kansas City is likely going to be favored in every remaining game, but the Chiefs do have issues with the offense trending downwards. At least the defense continues to impress.
Jacksonville is in danger of falling behind the Texans in the AFC South lead if Houston completes a season sweep in Week 12. Behind the impressive play of rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, the Texans are surging right into the playoff mix and should end up in the tournament as the Jaguars are their toughest remaining game.
Miami is in very good shape in the AFC East thanks to Buffalo’s shocking loss to Denver in Week 10. Even if the Dolphins continue their trend of beating bad teams and losing to good ones, the Dolphins should finish no worse than 11-6.
Buffalo (6-5) then could only afford one more loss to not lose the division, and the Bills still have to play at the Eagles and Chiefs, and they host the Cowboys in Week 15. The Bills close in Miami in Week 18, but for that to be a game for the division title, Buffalo is going to have to go on an incredible winning streak and/or get help from Miami losing games we expected the Dolphins to win. The Bills no doubt feel more playoff-ready than Cleveland, Houston, and Pittsburgh, but some disappointing losses and a very tough remaining schedule may do them in for the playoffs.
Cleveland has to make do without Deshaun Watson (shoulder surgery) for the rest of the season. The Browns survived a 13-10 win over the Steelers with rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback, but it is unclear how far they can go with this limited passing offense. The Browns signed Joe Flacco to their practice squad this week, so who knows if the veteran will see the field. But the schedule is favorable for Cleveland winning enough to qualify for a wild card.
Pittsburgh just fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada, a move long expected and wanted by fans. But quarterback Kenny Pickett is out of excuses, and he will have to play much better than someone who has the lowest passing touchdown rate in NFL history (1.9%). The Steelers have been outgained in yards by all 10 of their opponents, yet they have a winning record at 6-4, which has never been done in NFL history since stats were recorded in the 1930s.
Denver (5-5) is a team to watch for a hot finish to sneak into the playoffs. The Broncos already have a key head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bills, and they could add another if they beat Cleveland in Week 12.
Current NFC Bracket: Eagles Still on Top
Here are the current playoff seedings in the NFC:
- Philadelphia (9-1)
- San Francisco (8-3)
- Detroit (8-3)
- New Orleans (5-5)
- Dallas (8-3)
- Minnesota (6-5)
- Seattle (6-5)
It certainly looks like Week 12 will be a turning point in the NFC race this year. The Eagles have a tough challenge from the Bills, the Saints and Falcons are meeting for the 1st critical NFC South matchup, and the 49ers took control of 1st place in the NFC West after beating Seattle. The Lions also had a setback with a 29-22 loss at home to Green Bay (5-6), who may be surging right now behind Jordan Love.
But this is still Philadelphia’s conference to lose. Now into the toughest part of the team’s schedule, if the Eagles can prevail in the coming weeks against Buffalo, San Francisco, and a rematch with the Cowboys in Dallas, then there is little doubt this team is going to be the No. 1 seed and Super Bowl favorite again.
However, teams like the 49ers and Cowboys have a lot of impressive statistics that are better than the Eagles this season. The 49ers look like a complete team that had a bad 3-game losing streak, but they are healthy and back to winning games decisively. After crushing Geno Smith and the Seahawks on Thanksgiving night, the NFC West race looks all but over. The huge game is in Week 13 when the 49ers travel to Philly for the NFC Championship Game rematch.
Dallas will have a special interest in that game, because the Cowboys need to win the Week 14 rematch in Dallas and get some help from other teams to knock off the Eagles so that Dallas can win the NFC East. But it is not looking great, so this team that has registered 7 wins by 20 points will likely be limited to the No. 5 seed again and a wild card path to the Super Bowl. But this is what happens when you lose 42-10 in San Francisco and 28-23 in Philadelphia. The Cowboys must prove they can do it against the best teams too.
The Lions are starting to look shaky on defense ever since the 38-6 loss to the Ravens. The offense has also started turning the ball over with Jared Goff committing 6 turnovers in the last 2 games, and the Lions were awful on 4th down against Green Bay on Thanksgiving. The Lions still are in the driver’s seat to win the NFC North, but they still look a tier behind the Eagles, 49ers, and Cowboys.
The NFC South was an awful division last season, won by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with an 8-9 record in Tom Brady’s final season. The quarterbacks are different in the division this year, but their play has not been good, and none of the teams are particularly good. But the division title should come down to what happens in the 2 matchups between the Saints (5-5) and Falcons (4-6).
The Falcons get home field for the first of those pivotal matchups in Week 12, but it sure does look like the winner of the NFC South will be cannon fodder for the Cowboys in the wild-card round in the No. 5 at No. 4 matchup in the NFC bracket.
Minnesota (6-5) is in decent shape for a wild card berth even after losing quarterback Kirk Cousins (Achilles) for the season. Joshua Dobbs was acquired via trade before the deadline and has done an admirable job. The team is also expecting to get star wide receiver Justin Jefferson back soon from a hamstring injury. The Vikings are also not dead in the NFC North race as they still have 2 games to play against Detroit.
The Seahawks (6-5) may be fading after another loss to the 49ers and after Geno Smith was injured in Week 11. He tried to play through it against San Francisco on Thanksgiving, but it did not go well.
The Packers (5-6) are currently the No. 8 seed and could end up replacing Seattle for the final spot. It was just last year when the Seahawks and Packers were battling in the final week of the season for the No. 7 seed, which was ultimately won by Seattle after the Packers lost at home to Detroit in Week 18. Green Bay does have to host Kansas City in Week 13, but the remaining 5 games look winnable.
Conclusion: Count on the Usual Suspects
The wild card races for both conferences should be wild all the way, but when it comes to expecting teams to reach the Super Bowl, you still have to trust the usual suspects. That means Kansas City in the AFC with Baltimore the most legitimate threat as long as Lamar Jackson stays healthy. Maybe Patrick Mahomes will finally have to play a road playoff game for the first time should the Ravens maintain the No. 1 seed.
In the NFC, it is still the top 3 of Eagles, 49ers, and Cowboys. Dallas has a great team and plays so well in most games, but it has to prove it can beat those teams when it counts the most, and the Cowboys have not been able to do that so far. The 49ers also have to show last year’s title loss was a fluke after Brock Purdy injured his elbow on the opening drive.
With several big games left on the 2023 regular season schedule, you can expect plenty of drama and swings to come before we even reach the playoffs in January. But do not count out the possibility that we see another round of Eagles vs. Chiefs in February. It should be up to Baltimore and San Francisco to crash that party.
