Ever since the NFL expanded to 8 divisions in 2002, there have been at least 4 new playoff teams every single year. New meaning they did not make the playoffs the previous year. Ever since the NFL expanded to 14 playoff teams in 2020, there have been an average of 6.2 new teams making the playoffs.
In fact, last year was tied for the fewest with just 4 new playoff teams, but all of them had a big change at quarterback and/or head coach:
- Commanders – Hired Dan Quinn and drafted quarterback Jayden Daniels.
- Broncos – Improved under Sean Payton with rookie quarterback Bo Nix.
- Vikings – Got an unexpectedly great regular season out of Sam Darnold after J.J. McCarthy was lost for the year in the preseason.
- Chargers – Hired Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert was back healthy with a better defense.
With that in mind, which new playoff teams are the best bets for 2025? We looked at the playoff odds from a top-rated sportsbook like BetOnline (check our BetOnline Review) to find 4 favorite value picks.
Cincinnati Bengals (9-8 in 2024)
The Bengals were getting that “team no one wants to play” hype at the end of the regular season, and it may have been justified if only because the team has a history of playing the Bills and Chiefs well. That would have been their playoff path as the No. 7 seed too.
However, that 1-4 start sunk the Bengals’ hopes. Now, they’ll try to regroup after firing defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo and making Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase the most expensive wide receiver duo in NFL history. They didn’t make the biggest additions in free agency, and their draft class has received underwhelming grades led by the questionable 1st-round pick of Shemar Stewart, who had little college production as a pass rusher.
On the surface, that may not sound like enough positive changes for the team to improve after missing the playoffs the last 2 seasons. But when your offense is expected to be very good again, it’s hard for the defense to be any worse. With that setup, a simple stop or 2 can make all the difference between finishing 9-8 with no playoffs and 10-7 with a wild card spot.
Missing the playoffs and finishing 3rd place also helps with the schedule in 2025. The Bengals have a very favorable road schedule where the toughest non-division games look to be at Buffalo and Green Bay. But they can also clean up at home where their toughest non-division games look to be Detroit and one of Arizona/Chicago/New England/Jacksonville.
Quarterback Joe Burrow is the one who pushed for the team paying their stars, so it’s pressure on him to deliver and make sure this leads to a winning record. But with those great receivers, Trey Hendrickson should be back at edge rusher after producing 17.5 sacks, and a favorable schedule, the Bengals should get back over the hump and return to the postseason.
NFL Pick: Cincinnati Bengals to Make the Playoffs (-170) at BetOnline
San Francisco 49ers (6-11 in 2024)
Why do they say the Super Bowl hangover for the losing team is a real thing? The 49ers are helping with that stigma with one heck of a coincidence for Kyle Shanahan’s teams:
- In 2019, the 49ers lost a close Super Bowl to the Chiefs, then had an unfathomable number of injuries and missed the playoffs with a 6-10 record in 2020.
- In 2023, the 49ers lost a close Super Bowl to the Chiefs, then had an unfathomable number of injuries and missed the playoffs with a 6-11 record in 2024.
If history continues to repeat itself, then the 49ers should be back in the NFC Championship Game this year. In fact, the 49ers have this incredible streak going for 22 seasons where they’ve either missed the playoffs (15 times) or played in the NFC Championship Game (7 times).
While you can use the injuries for a valid reason why they underperformed last year, they still blew 4th-quarter leads to the Rams, Cardinals and Seahawks, all of their NFC West rivals. That lost them the division title right there as all of those games were very winnable, including both games with the Rams, who won the NFC West.
The 49ers have a decision to make with Brock Purdy’s contract, but they should return a great offense with better health for Brandon Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey. They traded Deebo Samuel to the Commanders, but there is still plenty of firepower here for what should be a great offense.
The issues were on defense where the injuries also took their toll. The 49ers lost linebacker Dre Greenlaw, but they’ve reloaded in the draft and found some competent rookies to play with Nick Bosa and Fred Warner that should lead to a better year.
The Rams still look very formidable in the division, but the 49ers are a better team than Seattle and Arizona. By playing a last-place schedule, they should do well at home, and their toughest road game may be Houston or Tampa Bay. Playing the NFC South and AFC South should do wonders for their record to improve significantly.
You may not trust the 49ers to close the deal in the postseason, but they should return there this year.
NFL Pick: San Francisco 49ers to Make the Playoffs (-175) at BetOnline
Atlanta Falcons (8-9 in 2024)
The Atlanta Falcons have not made the playoffs since the 2017 season. They thought they had the right stuff last year with Kirk Cousins, but he apparently only saved his best games for Tampa Bay. He was replaced by rookie Michael Penix Jr., who did well, but the defense was a major letdown in overtime losses to the Commanders and Panthers to end the year at 8-9 under new coach Raheem Morris.
But while we focused on healthier seasons and easier schedules for the Bengals and 49ers in 2025, the Falcons are that team with the significant change at quarterback to keep an eye on. They also have a coach going into his 2nd season, so with Penix no longer a rookie, this could be a big turnaround offensively as long as Penix develops well with Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and a serviceable line.
Defense is where the Falcons need to improve the most. They didn’t necessarily give Morris a great group to get results from last year. The Falcons signed safety Justin Simmons and edge rusher Matt Judon late in the process, and that felt like enough to do the job, but the defense was 23rd or worse in most key categories. Judon only had 5.5 sacks, and he was 4th on the team with 9 quarterback hits.
But Morris cannot complain after the Falcons traded up to get multiple 1st-round picks this year, and they used them on edge rushers Jalon Walker and James Pearce. That’s the kind of speed and talent Morris could use in his scheme, and those are the type of players you want screaming after the quarterback in a dome and fast track.
The Falcons could have finished 10-7 last year if they didn’t give up touchdowns in overtime to Washington and Carolina to close the season. This team was on the brink, and Penix looks like someone who could elevate his game a great deal in 2025.
Let’s go with the Falcons to end their long playoff drought as the NFC South remains a winnable division that hasn’t produced an 11-win team since 2021.
NFL Pick: Atlanta Falcons to Make the Playoffs (+140) at BetOnline
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-13 in 2024)
The Jaguars were only 4-13 last year, but let’s not forget this team won the AFC South in 2022 and had an 8-3 record in 2023 before Trevor Lawrence was injured. Last year, they lost close games to the Dolphins, Browns, Texans, Eagles, Packers, Vikings, Jets, Raiders, and Colts.
This team was down 22-0 in Philadelphia (Saquon Barkley reverse hurdle game) and still found a way to come 13 yards away from taking the lead before Lawrence threw an ill-advised interception in the end zone in a 28-22 loss.
But that was last year. The Jaguars are getting Lawrence back healthy, Brian Thomas Jr. looked like an instant stud as the new wide receiver in Jacksonville, and they just made the aggressive move to trade up for Travis Hunter, the 2-way sensation who can play wideout and corner.
New coach Liam Coen may have embarrassed himself at his press conference with his “Duval” chant, but his Tampa Bay offense had great design and that should carry over to Jacksonville as he is a Sean McVay disciple.
The AFC South is a winnable division. Take care of those division games and the home games, and the Jaguars have a vey realistic path to 9-8 or 10-7, which could be enough in the AFC for the playoffs. But it’s mostly that combination of getting back a healthy quarterback, a new offensive coach, and a dynamic player in Hunter that makes Jacksonville good value for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars to Make the Playoffs (+170) at BetOnline
