Now that the 2024 NFL schedule is out, we can go through each team’s schedule and start making our best predictions on what their final record will be this season.
Last season, all 3 teams that had the highest preseason win total (11.5) went under as the Chiefs (11-6), Eagles (11-6) and Bengals (9-8) and failed to reach 12 wins in the regular season.
Conversely, 5 of the bottom 7 teams in win totals went over their projected line, including a trio of playoff teams in the Texans, Rams and Buccaneers.
However, our favorite NFL season win bets you can make right now at NFL betting sites are not going to focus on the teams at the very top or bottom of the projected wins list. We are focusing on that section near the top with teams that could be flirting with 9-8 or 10-7 records this season.
We are counting on some young quarterbacks to make a big leap in their 2nd year as starters, a rookie coach to shake things up in the AFC and a recent contender to underperform again despite the return of an injured quarterback.
Green Bay Packers: Over/Under 9.5 Wins
The Green Bay Packers have the following odds for regular season wins at BetOnline (check our BetOnline Review):
- Over 9.5 wins (-140)
- Under 9.5 wins (+110)
Justifying a Stronger 2024 Season
The Packers were one of the hottest teams down the stretch of the 2023 season. After a 3-6 start, they finished 6-2 to make the playoffs, won a playoff game in impressive fashion in Dallas and gave the 49ers all they could handle in the divisional round.
This improvement was logical and legitimate. The Packers had one of the youngest offensive cores in league history last year, so once Jordan Love got comfortable at quarterback in his 1st year as a starter, the offense started to shine.
This is now a Jordan Love highlight account pic.twitter.com/NfawE5a78N
— DJ Nelson (@danford_jacob) February 17, 2024
Love posted MVP-type numbers over the final 8 games of the regular season with 18 touchdowns, 1 interception, a 112.7 passer rating and he averaged 7.7 yards per pass. He continued his stellar play into the playoffs against arguably the 2 best teams in the NFC last year, the Cowboys and the 49ers.
Love looks like one of the best quarterbacks in the NFC, and coach Matt LaFleur has won 67.5% of his games with the Packers. As for the defense, they fired defensive coordinator Joe Barry after years of criticism, and they upgraded the off-ball linebackers and safety positions in free agency and the draft.
Maybe the Packers fall short of a Super Bowl leap in 2024, but you never know with the way the NFC likes to churn out a new flash in the pan most years. Still, the Packers should be trending up, and if they can start a season like how they finished 2023, they should exceed 9.5 wins and get into double-digit wins this season.
The Schedule
Finally, let’s use the schedule to explain where we see 10 wins.
The Packers were 4-2 in division games last year and will certainly have a chance to match that with their ability to score with the Lions, the edge at quarterback over a rookie in Minnesota (J.J. McCarthy) and LaFleur has mastered the art of sweeping Chicago, which also has a rookie quarterback (Caleb Williams) who may not be ready for the big stage in Year 1.
Green Bay opens the season in Brazil against the Eagles and will return home to host the Colts. You like them to get at least 1 win there, which would be 5 wins if we’re predicting 4-2 in the division.
The non-division road game schedule is not that daunting with trips to the Titans, Rams, Jaguars and Seahawks. There’s a chance none of those teams win more than 9 or 10 games this season.
The Packers get to host Arizona where they’ll likely be strong favorites, and they get the Saints, a dome team, at Green Bay in December on a Monday night.
While they face the Texans, Dolphins and 49ers this year, all those games are at home and they should get at least a win there if not multiple.
Nothing says Love has to play better this year than he did in 2023, but historically, this is a good spot for a team to improve on last year’s success and that starts with winning more games. In this case, that’s over 9.5 wins for the Packers.
- NFL Pick: 2024 Regular Season Wins – Green Bay Packers Over 9.5 Wins (-140) at BetOnline
Houston Texans: Over/Under 9.5 Wins
The Houston Texans have the following odds for regular season wins at BetOnline:
- Over 9.5 wins (-150)
- Under 9.5 wins (+120)
Super Bowl Potential?
The Texans are in a similar position to the Packers this year with a young quarterback with MVP potential who already has a playoff win under their belt. In fact, both the Packers and Texans won must-win games in Week 18 last year to make the playoffs too.
However, while the Texans play in the tougher conference, they arguably have a better roster than Green Bay as C.J. Stroud is surrounded by what could be the best-supporting cast on offense in the NFL this year:
- WR Stefon Diggs: One of the best in the game in recent years; acquired in a trade with Buffalo.
- WR Nico Collins: Broke out as a No. 1 wide receiver last year.
- WR Tank Dell: Star rookie who was injured last year and missed the playoff run.
- WR Noah Brown: Strong chemistry with Stroud last year and he could be the best WR4 in the NFL.
- TE Dalton Schultz: Solid, reliable pass-catching tight end.
- RB Joe Mixon: Should be an improvement over last year’s backfield after acquiring Mixon from Cincinnati.
The Texans are so loaded at wideout that veteran Robert Woods may not even make the team, and they still have John Metchie, a 2022 2nd-round pick. They also drafted their new right tackle, Blake Fisher, in the 2nd round.
There’s been some talk amongst Texans fans about the cap space that would be created by cutting Robert Woods, so I asked Aaron Wilson about it.
Aaron Wilson: “They don’t need the cap space.” pic.twitter.com/CMbDS8IEQu
— James Roy (@JamesRoyNFL) March 7, 2024
Just as important as the players, the Texans retained offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik instead of losing him to a head coaching job like what happens so often now in the NFL. That should help keep consistency with the offense and hopefully spur growth as there is room for improvement even with how Stroud led the NFL in passing yards per game and lowest interception rate as a rookie quarterback.
As for the defense, DeMeco Ryans has a stud pass rusher in development in Will Anderson Jr., who won Defensive Rookie of the Year, and he gets to pair him with Danielle Hunter, who had a career high in sacks last year with the Vikings. The pass rush should be stronger this year as long as Anderson improves and Hunter catches on quickly to the new defensive scheme.
The Texans have a lot to prove still, but this is how you build a new contender in a couple of seasons.
The Schedule
The Texans already won 10 games last year, but it is true that they did not face the toughest schedule and things could be harder on that front in 2024. Houston will host Buffalo, Detroit, Miami and Baltimore while having road games with the Packers, Jets, Cowboys and Chiefs.
However, if this team is anywhere close to the lofty expectations we place on them, it’s not like they are going to go 0-8 in those games. They could even go 4-4 or better in those games, especially if Diggs brings his ‘A’ game against Buffalo, and maybe the Jets with Aaron Rodgers won’t be as great as we thought it would be. Getting Detroit and Miami at home should also be helpful.
Good afternoon. Enjoy these Stefon Diggs highlights. Very blessed time to be a Texans fan! pic.twitter.com/kQdOzcP7bw
— big ounce (@_bigounce) April 6, 2024
Those games aside, the Texans are going to have advantages in the division with Stroud looking like the best quarterback, having the best weapons and possibly the best pass rush on his side. Look for Houston to be favored in most of those AFC South games after finishing 4-2 in division games in 2023.
The Texans could open the season with a pair of rookie quarterbacks in Caleb Williams (Bears) and J.J. McCarthy (Vikings). They might see another in Week 6 in Drake Maye (Patriots) in a very winnable game.
This wouldn’t be the 1st time a young team flopped under the weight of higher expectations, but it’s hard to find fault with the roster and coaching the Texans have right now. Like with Green Bay, we love this team to have double-digit wins and contend for the Super Bowl this season.
- NFL Pick: 2024 Regular Season Wins – Houston Texans Over 9.5 Wins (-150) at BetOnline
Los Angeles Chargers: Over/Under 8.5 Wins
The Los Angeles Chargers have the following odds for regular season wins at BetOnline:
- Over 8.5 wins (-145)
- Under 8.5 wins (+115)
Jim Harbaugh to the Rescue
Jim Harbaugh returns to the NFL after not coaching there since 2014 when he had his worst season. He finished 8-8 with the 49ers. Overall, Harbaugh won 69.5% of his games in the NFL and has won at every stop in his coaching career. He’s also gotten off to fast starts, going 13-3 with the 49ers in 2011 when that team only had a preseason win total of 7.5 wins.
Now you give Harbaugh a franchise quarterback like Justin Herbert, and it will be his job to get the supporting cast to play better around Herbert. That falls on the running game and defense. The Chargers drafted top left tackle prospect Joe Alt with the No. 5 pick, added some Baltimore running backs (Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins) that new coordinator Greg Roman knows well, and Harbaugh’s new defensive coordinator (Jesse Minter) succeeded with him at Michigan the last few years.
They are going to build this team in Harbaugh’s vision of being physical, playing solid defense and using a good amount of play-action passing and running the ball.
It will be a new look for the Chargers, but Herbert is a talent that Harbaugh and Roman have arguably never had in a passer before. He’ll still get his share of pass attempts, and hopefully, he won’t be facing a 1-score deficit in the 4th quarter every week like the Chargers have seemingly done for the entire 21st century with their quarterbacks.
Still, even last year, Herbert lost 3 games where he gave the Chargers a 4th-quarter lead with a go-ahead drive. Just give him better support, keep him upright and the Chargers should get back to a winning record (over 8.5 wins).
The Schedule
Since the Chargers play in the AFC West, they are still going to be in the shadow of the Chiefs. However, with the Raiders and Broncos, you’re talking about 4 games against teams that could have Gardner Minshew (journeyman status) and Bo Nix (rookie) at quarterback. The advantage goes to Herbert and Harbaugh there. The Chargers should get at least 3 wins in the division, if not 4, and don’t forget they’ve given the Chiefs some real battles over the years.
The Chargers also get to play the Panthers in Carolina, the team that was 2-15 last year. They get to go to Arizona, another bad team from last year that shouldn’t be better than the Chargers on offense. The Chargers won 6-0 in New England last year and get to go back there in December.
The Chargers also host winnable games against the Titans, Saints and Buccaneers. They are facing the NFC South, the weakest division in the NFC.
We’ll trust Harbaugh with Herbert to get to 9-8, a winning record, and to hit the over for your NFL win totals bets this season.
- NFL Pick: 2024 Regular Season Wins – Los Angeles Chargers Over 8.5 Wins (-145) at BetOnline
Cincinnati Bengals: Over/Under 10.5 Wins
The Cincinnati Bengals have the following odds for regular season wins at BetOnline:
- Over 10.5 wins (-135)
- Under 10.5 wins (+105)
Tempering Expectations
The online sportsbooks are favoring the Bengals to win 11 or more games, but that is something we’ve only seen them do recently one time in 2022, and that was thanks to an 8-game winning streak after another slow start under coach Zac Taylor.
Last year, the Bengals started slowly with Joe Burrow’s calf injury from training camp, then Burrow was lost for the season in Week 11 against Baltimore. The Bengals finished 9-8, so the logic seems to be that a healthy Burrow should be good for at least 2 more wins to get over 10.5 wins.
The problem there is you can’t assume Burrow will be healthy. He’s finished 2-of-4 seasons on injured reserve in his NFL career, and his playing style suggests he is someone who will take an above-average number of sacks and hits to the body.
The Bengals also caught the Rams early last year before they were playing well, caught Brock Purdy days after a concussion in Minnesota and beat the Browns’ backups in Week 18 in a meaningless game for Cleveland. They also beat the Jaguars on a night when Trevor Lawrence was injured in Jacksonville.
Was 9-8 really a legitimate record for a team that was outscored by 18 points on the season and ranked 31st in yards allowed and 22nd in yards gained?
The Bengals also arguably downgraded their weapons by losing Tyler Boyd, their No. 3 wideout, and lead back Joe Mixon. They lost offensive coordinator Brian Callahan to the Titans and have gone with an in-house promotion, which is usually a step down for a coaching staff.
The Bengals still receive a lot of hype for some close wins over the Chiefs in 2021-22 and winning division titles both years while reaching at least the AFC Championship Game. However, when you consider this team usually starts slowly, has struggled to beat the Ravens in the standings when Lamar Jackson is healthy and has their own quarterback health issues, they are not a confident pick to trust to win 11 games on an annual basis.
With better-than-even odds for the under, we can’t help but lean towards the under 10.5 wins this year.
The Schedule
We are looking for at least 7 games where the Bengals could slip up this year. You have to figure Baltimore gets them at least once, and Kevin Stefanski’s Browns have owned Burrow’s Bengals his whole career. You also can’t discount the Steelers getting a split, so that could be 3 losses in the division alone.
The Bengals travel to Kansas City in Week 2, a big test for them early. We know that’s a rivalry game and it usually is close, but it’s obviously a game they could easily lose and will be the underdog for.
Cincinnati plays the Eagles in Week 8, a team that should be able to score and have an improved defense over last year. Similar things can be said about the Chargers with Jim Harbaugh as their new head coach, and that’s a road game for the Bengals in Week 11.
The Bengals are in Dallas for a Monday night game in Week 14. That’s exactly the kind of opponent that can frustrate them. A team that can score with Dak Prescott, and a defense that has an elite edge rusher in Micah Parsons. The Cowboys beat the Bengals in 2022 with Cooper Rush at quarterback in place of an injured Prescott.
Without discounting Cleveland or Baltimore sweeping the Bengals this year, this feels like a team that has been passed by some other contenders in the AFC as they like to still believe they are the main competition for the Chiefs. It is hard to pick better than a 10-7 record for the Bengals in 2024, so we’ll go with this under.
- NFL Pick: 2024 Regular Season Wins – Cincinnati Bengals Under 10.5 Wins (+105) at BetOnline
