NFL spreads are one of the main things we think about during each week of the season, but the long offseason gives us time to refocus our betting strategies and see where we can improve.
Each NFL season really takes on its own shape and narrative. In 2023, there were a lot of inexperienced quarterbacks, injured quarterbacks and some very top-heavy teams that often won by huge margins like the Ravens, 49ers and Cowboys.
Not surprisingly, teams favored by the spread covered 50.7% of the time in 2023. If you count a push as a win too, then it was 54.0%.
Compare that to the 2020 pandemic season, when scoring was off the charts in empty stadiums. That year, favorites only covered 44.5% of the time (44.9% with pushes), a big year for underdogs.
These things tend to regress to the mean each year, so maybe 2024 will see fewer blowouts more comeback wins, and better health for the signal callers.
With 6 months to go before the season starts, we wanted to share some betting strategies for NFL spreads and keep in mind the key numbers you should be looking at each week at the NFL betting sites.
Follow the Line Movement
It is essential to track a game’s line movement for the spread (and the total if interested) if you want to bet on it. Sharp bettors love betting the earliest lines as they can place big bets on a number they may really like before the general public starts pouring in money that can sway the line quickly.
For example, if a team opens as a 1.5-point favorite, a sharp bettor could place a big bet on them to cover, then the line balloons over the week to where that team is maybe a 3-point favorite by kickoff. In this case, the bettor achieved closing line value.
But to consistently get closing line value, your gut and research have to be on the mark. If you bet on a team as a 6-point favorite and they close at 4 points, you didn’t get the closing line value. You made a bet that is going to be harder to win because now the team has to win by more than 6 points instead of just 4 points to cover the spread and win the bet.
Spreads can fluctuate over the week for various reasons:
- Maybe there are big bets favoring one side.
- A player is a surprise inactive because of injury, though keep in mind a starting quarterback is usually the only position that will move the line multiple points.
- The weather could be something extreme and that levels the playing field in the game.
It is important to follow that line movement and have a pulse for where the game is in the eyes of the general public. Sometimes, the best move is to fade the public, but it all comes back to your ability to research and find actionable stats that support your pick.
Which Stats Should We Research?
With so much data to take in during the week in the regular season, it can be hard to sort through what matters and what doesn’t.
No offense to the betting sites that post historical data in their game previews, but those stats like “Green Bay’s record against the spread in September home games since 1992” don’t mean anything in 2024.
Focus on recent team performance. Teams can change dramatically over the course of a season, and we are seeing this get even more pronounced in a 17-game season. For example, the 2023 Bears started 0-3 with all double-digit losses. Terrible start for Matt Eberflus’ team.
But the Week 4 game against Denver, albeit a blown lead and loss, was a turning point for the offense and team. The defense also improved, and the Bears lost just 1 of their last 14 games by more than 8 points. In fact, the Bears had 5 wins by double digits to end the season. Pittsburgh, despite making the playoffs with a 10-7 record, had just 1 win by double digits in 2023.
That’s also what we mean by focusing on recent team performance. Since 2021, the Steelers have relied so heavily on winning close games. Mike Tomlin has basically turned into Chuck Pagano (2012-17 Colts) or Adam Gase (former Dolphins and Jets coach). He’s either going to win a close game or lose big these days. That can aid you in your spread betting.
Otherwise, it’s just picking up on the little things like not betting against Patrick Mahomes as an underdog. The Chiefs are 11-1-1 ATS as an underdog with Mahomes at quarterback. That’s hard to beat. It won’t stay like that forever, but it was a gold mine in the playoffs for Kansas City bettors who still believed.
How the team played the previous game can also be useful. For example, good teams are more likely to bounce back after an ugly performance. That’s why the Chiefs are 14-9-1 ATS after a loss since 2018, the only team above 60% in that time. Lately, Mike McCarthy’s Cowboys have been the kings of bouncing back, posting a 12-3 ATS record (80%) after a loss since 2021.
Hammering the Chiefs against the spread https://t.co/fs25NKXfM8 pic.twitter.com/F4nmfE8Hi6
— RJ (@H4Llrj) September 24, 2023
Going back to his Green Bay days, McCarthy is a “win big, lose close” type of coach. Figuring these little traits out for a select number of teams is a good way to go about doing your research. Remember, the goal isn’t to have a play ready for every game that week. It’s to have a few spread picks you are very confident in making.
Choose your spots wisely.
Shop Around
A good sports bettor should always have accounts with multiple top-rated sportsbooks to make sure they are getting the best prices. You may find a sportsbook that has the Eagles as a 3-point favorite with -115 odds while another sportsbook could be offering the Eagles at -110 odds. If you like the Eagles, you take the better odds every time.
But maybe, more important than the price, is the spread number itself. If you see a sportsbook offering a 2.5-point spread and the rest are at 3 points, that is a deal to jump on for sure.
This leads us to our discussion of key numbers for the spread, which will explain how important those half points can be.
Key Numbers to Know for NFL Spreads
Given the fact NFL teams primarily score field goals (3 points) and touchdowns (7 points with the extra point), the key numbers for NFL spreads are usually centered around 3 and 7 points.
More specifically, there is a battle between spreads of 2.5 and 3 points, between 6.5 and 7 points, and even between 3.5 and 4 points.
Since 2020, 34.8% of all NFL games have a spread of either 2.5, 3, or 3.5 points with the most common spread being 3 points.
Key Numbers: 2.5 vs. 3 Points
While a 3-point spread is the most common in the NFL, a 2.5-point spread is not far behind. However, since 2020, the success rates for both have been very different:
- Since 2020, 3-point favorites have covered 42.3% of the time and pushed 9.6% of the time.
- Since 2020, 2.5-point favorites have covered 50.4% of the time and obviously cannot push.
While games end in a push against the spread just 1.9% of the time since 2020, 15 of the 20 pushes were in games with a 3-point spread. This makes total sense. It is the most common final margin in the NFL, as teams obviously play for the field goal in most situations when a game is tied late.
However, when betting on the spread, you want to get the line of 2.5 points when you like the favorite and 3 points when you like the underdog. This way, a 3-point victory by the favorite gets you a cover, and a 3-point loss by the underdog at least saves you a push.
Key Numbers: 3.5 vs. 4 Points
While not quite as common as 2.5 and 3 points, spreads of 3.5 and 4 points are often used in NFL spread betting. There has also been a clear difference in their success rates since 2020:
- Since 2020, 3.5-point favorites have covered the spread 50.5% of the time.
- Since 2020, 4-point favorites have covered the spread 35.7% of the time (surprisingly, no pushes).
Why so poor for the 4-point spread? The team basically needs to win by a full touchdown (7 or more) to cover. Not many games end by margins of 5 or 6 points but a fair number of games do end by 4 points.
That’s why if you like the favorite, you want to bet when it’s 3.5 points, and if you like the underdog, you want the number to go to 4.
Key Numbers: 6.5 vs. 7 Points
Touchdown spreads are fun, and if you’ve followed our last 2 examples, then you should know what to expect here. We’re going to tell you 6.5 is better than 7 for the favorite, but the numbers since 2020 are still surprising:
- Since 2020, 6.5-point favorites have covered the spread 59.3% of the time (highest among the 17 most frequently used point spreads).
- Since 2020, 7-point favorites have covered the spread 50% of the time with no pushes.
That’s good stuff, but keep in mind the 59.3% for 6.5 points is being boosted by an 11-3 run in the last 14 games since 2022. If we look at the period of 2007-2019, 6.5-point favorites were only 80-88 ATS (47.6%).
Kevin Harlan’s call of Patrick Mahomes’ game-winning touchdown pass to Mecole Hardman to win the Super Bowl.
Fantastic.pic.twitter.com/wdYlgxPmtY
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) February 13, 2024
Still, we just wanted to present some more recent data in the COVID era and in the post-PASPA era with more states getting in on legal sports gambling since 2018 and changing the landscape of who the average bettor is.
Yet, clearly, the oddsmakers remain successful at setting lines. The main takeaway here is still that 6.5 is the better spread to take the favorite at and 7 points is the better line to back the underdog against the spread.
Spreads of 10 Points
On a final note, spreads of exactly 10 points are not as common, but they are one of the hardest bets to win if you back the favorite to cover.
Since 2007, 10-point favorites are 105-18 SU (85.4%), but they have only covered 39.0% of the time and it’s been a push 5.7% of the time. Since teams rarely win by 11-to-13 points, a 10-point spread without pushing is often asking for a win of 14 points or more.
That is why you’d prefer to get those games at 9.5 points instead, or maybe the real value pick is to parlay the underdog +10 with the moneyline of the favorite.
However, oddly enough, there were only 3 games in 2023 with exactly a 10-point spread after 10 in 2022 and 13 in 2021.
Better luck next year.
