The NHL playoffs are nearly here and if you want to handicap like a pro at the NHL betting sites then make sure to check out these five tips for making money in the postseason.
1. The Schedule Matters
The NHL regular season is a long grind at 82 games and although the cream ultimately rises to the top, it is important to note that any team can win a single game on any given night. We all know this but for some reason, the easy money that a mismatch seemingly presents is often too tempting for the casual bettor to ignore.
Let’s travel back to Saturday, November 25th, 2023 as the high-flying Canucks were taking on their lowly divisional rivals from San Jose. Vancouver was on a mini three-game road trip and had defeated the Kraken, 5-1, the night before but was also playing in their seventh game over the past 10 days.
Nevertheless, the oddsmakers tagged them as -275 road favorites simply because the public had put the Sharks on auto-fade even at this early juncture of the season. Despite being outshot, 33-22, San Jose was able to grind out a 4-3 win against a team they had lost to twice earlier by scores of 10-1 and 3-1.
I bring this up because although the schedule doesn’t play as much of a role in the first round of the playoffs, as all things are even, it could be important in future rounds. If a team goes seven games while its second-round opponent has had time to rest, the rested team will have an enormous advantage not only in Game 1 but throughout the series.
2. Matchups Matter
The recreational sports bettor often looks at the playoff seeds and bets on the team that is the highest. That’s an easy way to look at NHL series futures bets and even game-by-game wagers, but doing just a little due diligence can go a long way because some teams just match up better against others regardless of the record or the perceived talent on the ice.
Let’s look at the first round of the 2022-2023 season in which the President’s Trophy winners, the No. 1 seeded Boston Bruins, took on the No. 8 seeded Florida Panthers. While the Bruins made history by garnering 135 points in the regular season, the Panthers barely nudged their way into the postseason with 92 points, just one more than the barely eliminated Buffalo Sabres.
Yet, these two teams had split their four meetings in the regular season. The Panthers were a highly physical club that had no respect for the more talented Bruins and Florida rebounded from a 3-1 series deficit to deliver a shocking 4-3 series victory.
Do your homework and research how teams have fared against each other in the regular season and use that as a starting point when handicapping the postseason.
3. Injuries Hurt
Just because you are betting on the team wearing a certain jersey doesn’t mean they will perform like you expect them to, especially if they’ve been bitten by the injury bug. The injuries to major stars will be trumpeted from San Jose to Saskatchewan, so there is little doubt you will bet a team unaware that one of its leading scorers is unavailable.
However, it’s important to do a deeper dive than that. Look at the top three lines and the defensive pairings as well. Find out if any of those players has missed a game or two down the stretch of the regular season and then look at his stats after returning. Even a second-pairing defenseman playing hurt can have disastrous effects on the outcome of a game.
4. Goaltenders Rule
Goalies are indeed a different breed and if they get hot, they can change the trajectory of an entire series. One of the clearest examples of this is in 2012 when the eighth-seeded Los Angeles Kings rode 26-year-old goalie, Jonathan Quick, to Stanley Cup glory. All Quick did was post a 16-4 postseason record and sparkled with a 1.41 goals-against average and a .946 save percentage over his 20 playoff outings.
Most teams will ride one goalie into the playoffs but make sure that those goalies are healthy because if they’re not, it is often better to go with a competent backup but head coaches are often reluctant to pull that trigger.
5. It Pays to Shop
If you are going to get serious about making money in the NHL playoffs, then do yourself a favor and avail yourself of as many outs as possible. You don’t have to stick with one sportsbook. As a matter of fact, you should have accounts at three, four or even five sportsbooks so you can compare the lines and get the sharpest one available.
Why lay -130 when you can get the favorite at -120 somewhere else? Work with reliable and trustworthy books that have a long track record of paying their customers immediately after a withdrawal is initiated. Do your research, ask around, go on to the sports betting forums and look up a sportsbook’s ratings before funding any accounts. It’s better to know now than later because why make a bet if you’re not sure you’ll get paid?
