One does not have to be following the NFL draft this year to predict that the Chicago Bears are going to use the No. 1 overall pick on USC quarterback Caleb Williams.
Top sportsbooks have the odds on that around -5000 right now, making it as close to a lock as it gets in the unpredictable exercise known as the NFL draft. But that one is a given. The rest of the draft is sure to present some disagreements, though things do feel a little more like a consensus this year among experts and oddsmakers alike on where this class stands.
But what are some obscure NFL draft betting markets you can find and get good value on right now? We hunted down a few of our favorites and added them below.
Total Big 10 Players Drafted in Round 1
Instead of trying to bet on which player goes to which team or in which slot of the 1st round, you could bet on a prop like the over/under for how many players get drafted from a certain conference in the 1st round.
A favorite choice right now is over/under 5.5 Big 10 players getting drafted in the 1st round this year. The over is favored with -150 odds at BetOnline. Let’s examine why that is a good bet.
- Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ohio State) should be a top 5 pick and likely the first wide receiver off the board this year.
- J.J. McCarthy (Michigan) could be a top 10 pick and likely the 4th quarterback taken in the 1st round.
- Olumuyiwa Fashanu (Penn State) is one of the highest-ranked offensive tackles in this class and could easily go in the teens to a team.
- Cooper DeJean (Iowa) figures to be a top-rated corner and potential great at punt returns in the NFL.
- Demeioun Robinson (Penn State) is an edge rusher that has been mocked to the Buccaneers at No. 26 among other teams in that range late in the round.
Jim Harbaugh watching J.J. McCarthy’s pro day.
“He’s just showing off now!”
“Looks like Chicago.” https://t.co/DfQzGgxEWw pic.twitter.com/cUJBU1pOEf
— Clayton Sayfie (@CSayf23) April 11, 2024
That feels like a handful of picks with a very high probability of going in the 1st round. The deciding factor could be Illinois defensive lineman Jer’Zhan Newton, who has been mocked everywhere from No. 9 (Chicago) to No. 31 (San Francisco) in the 1st round. According to NFL Mock Draft Database, Newton has an 85.5% chance of going in the 1st round, which is actually higher than Robinson (73.3%) and DeJean (85.2%).
But we like those odds and the fit for teams, so we like the over 5.5 players drafted in the 1st round from the Big 10.
NFL Pick: Over 5.5 Big 10 Players Drafted in Round 1 (-150) at BetOnline (check our BetOnline Review)
First Defender Drafted
This draft could be unique in the way offensive players are expected to dominate the top picks:
- The top 3 picks are favored to be quarterbacks with Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Drake Maye all having high odds to start the draft QB-QB-QB.
- There are 3 wide receivers (Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze) who are favored for picks 4-6 or at least the top 10.
- Notre Dame offensive tackle Joe Alt figures to be the first offensive lineman taken and probably in the top 10 at that.
- Tight end Brock Bowers is one of the top prospects in this draft too.
It is not a strong draft class for edge rushers, and while the corners look like a solid class, there is no elite prospect that is going to go in the top 7 picks most likely.
Dallas Turner is a high ceiling talent🐘 pic.twitter.com/0vuZ7CwdZ3
— PFF College (@PFF_College) April 11, 2024
Therefore, the odds on the first defender drafted go heavily towards Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner. Should the Titans use the No. 7 pick on a tackle like Alt or Fashanu, look for the Falcons to take Turner with that No. 8 pick to bolster their pass rush and give them a cornerstone player for their new defensive look under coach Raheem Morris.
NFL Pick: 1st Defensive Player Drafted – Dallas Turner (-160) at BetOnline
Joe Alt a Top 5 Pick?
If the top 3 picks are all quarterbacks and the Cardinals take Marvin Harrison Jr. as the best receiver with the No. 4 pick as they are favored to do, then what do the Chargers do with the No. 5 pick? It is the earliest mystery and major domino piece to this draft board in our view.
In past years, you would have said the Chargers would be a lock to take the best wide receiver on the board, which would presumably be Malik Nabers (LSU) or Rome Odunze (Washington) if Harrison Jr. is already gone. After all, Justin Herbert needs his new weapon after the team let go of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams at wide receiver. They also didn’t bring back running back Austin Ekeler and tight end Gerald Everett, so Herbert really needs a new No. 1 receiver.
But what if the plan is completely different now that Jim Harbaugh is the coach and Greg Roman is the offensive coordinator? What if they want to build a run-heavy offense that throws far less than Herbert is used to? Maybe they even value a tight end like Brock Bowers, who has a chance to be elite, over these wide receivers. Maybe they see the success Kansas City has going through Travis Kelce and they want their own tight end weapon. It worked well for Roman in Baltimore with Mark Andrews as the primary receiver.
But old-school football guys believe in building up the trenches before anything. That could mean Joe Alt, the standout tackle from Notre Dame, is the pick here.
Harbaugh has talked glowingly of building in the trenches since taking the job in Los Angeles, and while it may have been a smoke screen, we think there is good enough value in taking a chance on the Chargers shaking things up and taking Alt with that No. 5 pick instead of the wide receiver everyone expected. This draft is deep enough to where they can get that player in the 2nd round.
NFL Pick: No. 5 Pick – Joe Alt (+500) at Bovada (check our Bovada Review)
Michael Penix Jr. in Las Vegas?
One of the more interesting prospects in this draft class is Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who was downright prolific in his final seasons with 9,544 yards and 67 touchdown passes since 2022.
But he has seemingly fallen to the No. 6 quarterback in this class with the big 4 ahead of him, and Oregon’s Bo Nix is also favored to go in the 1st round now. Where does that leave Penix?
Well, the Vikings are the favorites to land him with +210 odds at Bovada, though we think the Vikings are going to make a move for Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy or take Bo Nix with one of their 2 picks in the 1st round.
We also think Denver is on the McCarthy or Nix train, and the Broncos end up with their Russell Wilson replacement before the Raiders make the No. 13 pick in the draft.
The Raiders also have the No. 44 pick in the draft. Even though the team signed Garnder Minshew from the Colts, they need a long-term option for Antonio Pierce’s tenure, as Aidan O’Connell is not the answer. Getting a big-time passer like Penix in the 2nd round would be a great steal and developmental project for the team. That’s the match we want to invest in for this draft.
NFL Pick: Michael Penix Jr. – Drafted to Raiders (+250) at Bovada
Mr. Irrelevant’s Position
The last pick in the 7th and final round of the NFL draft is known as Mr. Irrelevant. San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy sparked a renewed interest in this pick in 2022 thanks to the unexpected and unprecedented success he has already enjoyed in his career.
Brock Purdy’s mom insisted on throwing him a draft party whether he was selected or not ❤️ @RyanHockensmith on the history of Mr. Irrelevant and how Purdy is remaking the moniker 🔗 https://t.co/EyvySKHZRB pic.twitter.com/jzVXfLrGQp
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) April 10, 2024
But there really is no strategic edge with Mr. Irrelevant. In 2021, the Mr. Irrelevant pick by Tampa Bay was linebacker Grant Stuard, a player most have likely never heard of before.
If you thought Purdy’s rookie success may have interested a team in taking a chance at quarterback on Mr. Irrelevant in 2023, you would have been wrong. The Rams selected defensive tackle Desjuan Johnson.
As a counterpoint, maybe the Rams would have taken a chance on a quarterback if they hadn’t already drafted Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett in the 4th round. They already shot their shot, so to speak.
For 2024, the New York Jets are currently hanging onto the final 2 picks in the draft (No. 256 and 257). While quarterback is favored with +300 odds to be Mr. Irrelevant this year, would the Jets really want to make that pick with their lack of success at the position over the decades? If they are drafting a quarterback this year to eventually replace Aaron Rodgers, they should use the No. 72 pick on Spencer Rattler.
Total shot in the dark, but let’s go with the Jets to end on a defensive note and take a defensive line/edge rusher to be the latest Mr. Irrelevant in NFL draft history. This might be the last draft class for coach Robert Saleh, a defensive-minded coach.
NFL Pick: Mr. Irrelevant’s Position – Defensive Line/Edge (+500) at Bovada
