The 2024 NFL draft should be defined by its offensive players. Not only did quarterback Caleb Williams go No. 1 to the Chicago Bears, but a record 6 quarterbacks were in the top 12 picks, the top 14 picks were all offensive players for the first time ever, and a record 23 offensive players were drafted in the 1st round.
This should make for an interesting race for the NFL’s 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year award. The top-rated sportsbooks have Williams as the favorite to win it, but he’ll have his share of challengers.
We look at Williams’ case for Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY), the betting advice for the other top candidates, and if there’s any value outside of the 1st-round field this year. Remember, Puka Nacua gave everyone a run for their money last year as a 5th-round pick, though he still lost to the quarterback drafted No. 2 overall (C.J. Stroud).
The last 6 OPOY winners were all top 10 picks. In fact, only 13 of the 57 OPOY winners (22.8%) were drafted with a pick lower than No. 32, and 10-of-13 were running backs, a position that no longer wins the award as often as it used to.
The Positions to Fade: Tight End and Offensive Linemen
Part of predicting who will win an award like OROY is having a good understanding of who usually doesn’t win the award. In the case of offensive linemen and tight ends, none have ever won OROY since the award was started by the Associated Press in 1967.
Historically, tight end has been a tough position to excel at right away. Name your favorite tight end and chances are they weren’t that great as rookies, though Mike Ditka did basically define the position in 1961 when he had 1,076 yards and 12 touchdowns for the Bears. But the award was not in existence yet.
The tight end with expectations this year is Brock Bowers (+4000 at BetOnline (check our BetOnline Review)), but you can find 13 players with higher odds than him for the award. His problem is he went to a Vegas team that has a quarterback competition with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell, and the Raiders did not show much willingness to throw the ball last year, especially after interim coach Antonio Pierce took over the team. This feels like a new era for the Raiders where they’ll try to win by running the ball and playing great defense.
That doesn’t sound like a good situation for Bowers, who is almost certainly not going to put up Sam LaPorta-type numbers in this type of offense. We’ll fade him.
As for the offensive linemen, they just historically never get votes for anything because they’re not skill players, they don’t have flashy stats, and the line is more about unit play than any one individual.
Rough Year for Rookie Running Backs?
Saquon Barkley (2018 Giants) is the last running back to win OROY. It used to be the main position to win it with 35 running backs (fullbacks included) taking home the award since 1967. It is an easy position to succeed right away.
But that replaceable factor with backs has led to fewer teams drafting them high, and more teams use a committee approach, so you rarely ever see a rookie back get 250-plus carries in a season anymore.
In the 2024 NFL draft, no one took a chance on a running back until the Panthers with the No. 46 pick on Texas back Jonathon Brooks (+3300 at BetOnline). He’s coming off an injury and joining a team that could not run the ball well last year. Improvements have been made in Carolina, but it is hard to see Brooks having a dominant year with over 1,500 yards from scrimmage and double-digit touchdowns to overcome these quarterbacks and deep wide receiver class for OROY.
Jonathon Brooks rushed for 218 yards and 2 touchdowns against Kansas. pic.twitter.com/G6MIzFGNKV
— Nick Penticoff (@NickPenticoff) May 17, 2024
Maybe if the Cowboys drafted a back in the 2nd round to replace Tony Pollard, that’d be a pick worth looking at in an offense we expected to be strong. But we’ll fade the running backs as well outside of maybe throwing in Brooks to one longshot parlay for award winners before Week 1.
Caleb Williams vs. The Field of Quarterbacks
Here are the current odds for OROY at BetOnline for the 6 quarterbacks selected with the top 12 picks this year:
- Caleb Williams, Bears (+200)
- Jayden Daniels, Commanders (+500)
- Bo Nix, Broncos (+1200)
- J.J. McCarthy, Vikings (+1400)
- Drake Maye, Patriots (+1800)
- Michael Penix Jr., Falcons (+4000)
We will just assume Kirk Cousins starts this season for Atlanta, something the Falcons have $180 million reasons to do in 2024. So, that’s no play on Michael Penix Jr. for this award.
With Atlanta/Penix out of the picture, the case for Williams over the field makes sense:
- Williams was the consensus top quarterback in this class and has the best odds to have a successful career in the NFL.
- The Bears are -165 to go over 8.5 wins at BetOnline, so their preseason win total is much higher than the other teams here, which are in the 4.5-to-7.5 win range.
- While having a winning record is not a prerequisite to win OROY as a quarterback, it certainly helps, and the Bears are more likely to do it than the Commanders, Broncos, Vikings, and Patriots this year.
- Williams is the only rookie quarterback you can count on to start Week 1 right now as the team quickly named him the starter. Others may join him, but someone like J.J. McCarthy could ride the bench for a few weeks while Sam Darnold begins the season.
- Williams has the best wide receiver corps among these rookie quarterbacks, and possibly one of the best in the league if Keenan Allen looks vintage in Chicago, and if top rookie Rome Odunze fills in nicely behind Allen and D.J. Moore.
- Williams has one of the better tight ends here in Cole Kmet, so his overall weapons are the best of any of these quarterbacks.
- The Bears could also be better defensively than most of these teams, which again helps Williams with winning games and not forcing things to throw interceptions while trailing.
Rookie Quarterbacks in Tough Situations
Maye is stuck in a bad offensive situation in New England and will likely make a lot of mistakes trying to be the hero. Bo Nix can be in a similar situation in Denver, though at least his offensive system (Sean Payton) should be better. But he’s going to be so overshadowed in a division with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert.
McCarthy has skill players on par with Williams, but again, is he going to play the right way? Is he going to throw the ball as often as a veteran like Kirk Cousins did in Minnesota, or will they have to put the training wheels on this year? We probably need to see some preseason action from McCarthy to get a final good read on projecting him this season. If there’s some August magic like a Ben Roethlisberger (2004 Steelers) or Russell Wilson (2012 Seahawks), then this is tempting.
Daniels is the main competition to Williams since he should be a Week 1 starter as starting Marcus Mariota is a waste of time for the Commanders. Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury already helped Kyler Murray to win OROY in Arizona in 2019, though that was a weak year for the award, and it’s not like Murray lit it up under him. Daniels also has concerns that he’s a 1-year wonder in college, and his small frame and running style are not going to help his durability in the NFL.
… to zip it in tight windows or out routes on the opposite hash consistently in the NFL.
– Can tend to lock on his 1st read too often.
– When he bails from the pocket on non-designed roll outs, he generally takes his eyes from downfield and becomes one dimensional.— Tyler_FF_ (@Tyler_FF_) May 31, 2024
Williams in the Best Position
Williams is chalk, but it’s very good chalk. He is walking into the best situation any quarterback ever drafted No. 1 overall has walked into. We can make fun of it being the Bears, but they’ve rarely ever been in this position to take a quarterback like Williams at the top of the draft.
Sorting Out the Wide Receivers
Here are the updated odds for OROY at BetOnline for the top 7 wide receivers this year with odds better than +5000:
- Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals (+900)
- Keon Coleman, Bills (+1200)
- Malik Nabers, Giants (+1200)
- Xavier Worthy, Chiefs (+2500)
- Rome Odunze, Bears (+2500)
- Ladd McConkey, Chargers (+2500)
- Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars (+3300)
Something to keep in mind: 11 wide receivers have won OROY and 7 of them led their team in receiving yards and/or receiving touchdowns. In a year with this much competition at quarterback, a wide receiver is likely going to have to break 1,000 yards with solid touchdown numbers to win this award. That’s why we are looking for someone who could get volume as a new No. 1 target for their team.
Marvin Harrison Jr.: The Favorite
The favorite here is Marvin Harrison Jr., and he could follow in the footsteps of Anquan Boldin, who received all 50 votes for OROY after he had 1,377 receiving yards for the 2003 Cardinals. Was that a bad team that finished 4-12 and force-fed Boldin the ball? Yes, but that doesn’t matter to voters.
Harrison Jr. could fill a similar role this year after the Cardinals let go of Marquise Brown (Chiefs). We know he has the right genes for the NFL to perform right away.
Marvin Harrison Jr. already looks like a Top-10 route runner in the NFL 😳
Multiple NFL scouts reportedly believe Harrison could “easily” have over 1,400 receiving yards and 10+ TD’s in his rookie season.
Kyler Murray has found his new BEST friend. pic.twitter.com/Ku3ERmgr4Z— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) May 30, 2024
Fading Odunze, Thomas Jr., and Nabers
We like Caleb Williams at quarterback, so it’s hard to see Rome Odunze leapfrogging his quarterback for the award unless Williams were to get injured. But even then, he’s likely the WR3 on the depth chart with Moore and Allen there. The stats are unlikely to be huge for Odunze in 2024. Fade him.
We’re not trusting Trevor Lawrence (Brian Thomas Jr.) or Daniel Jones (Malik Nabers) to get the most out of their new wideouts either. Not after past failures with their new weapons like the mediocre connection Lawrence had to Calvin Ridley last year, and the Giants seem to be a wasteland for the wide receiver position.
Concerns for Worthy
Xavier Worthy could be fighting for 4th place in targets on the Chiefs with Travis Kelce, Hollywood Brown, and Rashee Rice (legal issues pending) all there this season. You also have to worry about a speedster and hamstring issues, which he’s already had a case of this May in camp. We’ll fade Worthy in 2024.
Best Value
The best values for players drafted after the 1st round this year should be the top 2nd-round picks in wide receivers Keon Coleman (Bills) and Ladd McConkey (Chargers).
Both are going to teams with top passing quarterbacks in Josh Allen and Justin Herbert, who both lost their main wide receiver this offseason via trade, with Stefon Diggs going to Houston and Keenan Allen going to the Bears. Both also lost their top deep threat in free agency in Gabe Davis (Jaguars) and Mike Williams (Chargers).
But this is where I favor McConkey as the Chargers lost so much, including a targets machine in Austin Ekeler out of the backfield. With the way Herbert can feed his favorites the ball, McConkey could end up leading all rookies in catches this year if they use him the way they should.
Coleman could be a good one in Buffalo, but we saw that offense really dial back the passing game after new offensive coordinator Joe Brady took over at midseason, and tight end Dalton Kincaid could end up leading the Bills in different receiving categories this year.
In fact, there’s more reasons to be optimistic about Kincaid’s production eating into Coleman’s than for someone like Quentin Johnston, who didn’t impress at all last year, slowing down McConkey on the Chargers.
Conclusion: Best Bets and Pick Summary
We have gone through a lot of names that we like and don’t like for the OROY award in the 2024 NFL season. We wanted to conclude with a summary of our favorite picks that you can play as singles since the odds are good, or use them in parlays with other NFL award winners this season.
We like it to come down to quarterbacks and wide receivers like most years these days. Williams and Harrison Jr. are the chalk picks, but they also are in the best positions to produce stats right away that can win this award, and there’s a reason most experts thought they were QB1 and WR1 in this draft class.
But we also like the potential for McConkey to have an instant chemistry with Herbert after he lost 57% of his career passing yards this offseason with the departures of so many skill players. The Chargers are going to run the ball more this year, but they still have to throw it too and McConkey is a dark horse for the award.
Finally, McCarthy is our dark horse quarterback, and his odds are getting longer, moving from +1000 after the draft to +1400 today. So, you might want to take him now and hope he wins the starting job for Week 1. But he’s someone to keep an eye on in preseason action to see if there’s any real spark there as we know ideally Kevin O’Connell wants to throw the ball a lot like he did with Matthew Stafford (2021 Rams) and Kirk Cousins, and he does still have Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison at wide receiver.
Favorite 2024 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Picks
* Odds from BetOnline
- Caleb Williams, Bears (+200)
- Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals (+900)
- J.J. McCarthy, Vikings (+1400)
- Ladd McConkey, Chargers (+2500)
