At Today’s Lines, our golf betting expert looks at the process of optimizing your golf bets and details the strategic approaches necessary, using insights from leading sportsbooks.
Research Course and Current Form
Information is power in all aspects of life and the more research you do for your golf bets, the more profitable you will become long-term.
The main two ingredients are the previous form at the course and the current form leading into the event.
Course Form
Most weeks on the PGA Tour they play at the same courses that have held the events making it easy for bettors to collate all the previous forms at the track. When this is available it is hugely influential in how players perform because all golf tracks vary.
How low can you go?
These all-time stingers just keep getting lower 😲 pic.twitter.com/uvfre7WO3I— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 16, 2024
Modern courses are ultra-long suiting the more powerful players on tour while many of the older courses are more intricate strategic tests of golf where the course has never been overpowered and requires accuracy tee to green.
Many players favour one type of test more than the other, and it is important to avail yourself which ones do, and which ones don’t because the ability to rule out a player’s chances that week has benefits.
What Do You Do When There Is No Course Form?
When there is no previous course form available at a new event then you need to research deeper into course reviews and assess the type of course. Keep stakes smaller and have less bets those weeks, because the information from the result will be powerful in future years.
Current Form
Current form is best researched on the PGA Tour website where they have a slew of statistics as well as the golfers’ recent results.
The statistics break down each area of a golfers’ game, and how they are performing from week to week.
An example of a big indicator of a player coming into form can be the players who are historically low ranked on the putting stats but have strong ball-striking stats. Once you can identify tangible improvement week to week in their putting stats, you can believe a big performance is due.
Value Bet
After all this research has been done the next thing to do is to find the value bets, which means making a theoretical price yourself for each golfer you fancy.
For arguments’ sake, if you look at next year’s Masters Tournament and see that the new U.S. Open champion Bryson DeChambeau is (+2000) but your estimated price disagrees at (+1000) then that is the perfect spot to place a bet.
Long term if your judgement is good in these spots, you will create profit.
Spread Risk
Spreading risk in golf betting is hugely important because finding those big-priced outright winners like the Bryson DeChambeau example above will not happen every week. To complement the risk, it is key to find lower-priced bets that will reduce variance and help stabilize your weekly bankroll during the inevitable ups and downs.
The first port of call for these are the top 20 and top 10 markets to use for your bets and these are helpful if your research has been correct, and your golfer plays well without winning.
In the DeChambeau case, the prices of the top 10 and top 20 markets are formed generically from the outright of (+2000) so a top 10 investment would be around (+200) which is different from your derived price which would be (+100).
To aid this further, you can bet two-ball, three-ball or match bets which are all at shorter odds but if you’re finding the value still, they will balance your bankroll
Discipline and Bankroll Management
In all forms of betting, it is key to have discipline and strong bankroll management.
The discipline needed means once the golf research is done as detailed above and you have found the value bets at the right prices for wagering. You then spread your weekly risks proportionately, the key is to stake them in a disciplined manner.
To achieve this at Today’s Lines, we recommend you use a separate bankroll for wagering and only use between 5-10% of it on any given week.
How To Find the Best Golf Betting Sportsbooks
Here at Today’s Lines, our experts have rigorously tested the recommended top offshore sportsbooks for their range of golf betting markets, their trustworthiness, and the reliability of software for your convenience.
