It’s not difficult to stir up a heated discussion these days. Mention to someone you like apples, and the crowd behind you might erupt in anger with accusations that you are discriminating against bananas.
It’s especially easy to upset sports fans by claiming one player or another to be overrated. And in the case of the three college football quarterbacks below, ‘overrated’ has nothing to do with their talent level, but due to the odds stacked against them to meet expectations in the coming season.
That disclaimer won’t mean a thing to the three fanbases below, and I’m already prepared not to expect any Christmas cards from the Klubnik, Gabriel and Weigman families.
Cade Klubnik – Clemson Tigers
One popular theme during this offseason has been to kick Dabo Swinney and the Clemson Tigers while they’re down. That’s what a 9-4 record will do to a team after a dozen consecutive seasons with double-digit victories.
The good news for Swinney and the Tigers in general, and Cade Klubnik specifically, is that they get a great chance to disprove their critics right out of the gate with a matchup against NCAAF futures favorite Georgia in Week 1.
Tough Early Season Schedule
That season opener will be played in not-so-neutral Atlanta where the Bulldogs have been bet up to nearly 2-TD favorites at top sportsbooks.
Georgia will take the field with Heisman Trophy favorite Carson Beck (+800) leading the way. Klubnik is further back on that list in the +3000 to +4000 range, and he’ll be facing a Bulldogs defense led by linebackers Smael Mondon Jr. and Jalon Walker.
Klubnik has talked about how the Tigers were a young team last season, and they made some mistakes because of that inexperience, including himself. Fair enough, but Clemson lost a couple of key contributors – safety Andrew Mukuba (Texas) and WR Beaux Collins (Notre Dame) – to the portal and didn’t add much, if anything.
The line in front of Klubnik caved at some of the most inopportune times, and the combination of pressure and his own inexperience led to 9 picks.
After getting whipped by Georgia in the opener, Klubnik and the Tigers return home to host a dangerous Appalachian State team, ranked fourth in a recent Group of Five poll, and then NC State. Both the Mountaineers and Wolfpack will be playing with house money.
The pressure will be on both Swinney and Klubnik, and I’m inclined to bet the other side in each of Clemson’s first three games.
Dillon Gabriel – Oregon Ducks
Everywhere you turned this spring, the polls seemed to agree on the top 4 teams entering 2024: Georgia, Ohio State, Texas and Oregon. Everywhere you turned except in my direction, that is.
I’m simply not convinced the Ducks are going to finish that high in their first Big Ten campaign and one reason is Dillon Gabriel, the transfer from Oklahoma via Central Florida.
Inconsistent Performance
There was nothing wrong with the numbers Gabriel produced for the Sooners last season, throwing for better than 3,600 yards and connecting on 30 scoring strikes. But there was also nothing consistent about the way he accrued those stats, throwing for 400+ yards three times and under 200 yards three times.
Gabriel was expecting to grade out as a 3rd- or 4th-round pick in the NFL Draft, but barely projected as a 7th-round pick instead, and that led to a rather reluctant decision to return to college and try to improve his draft positioning with Dan Lanning at Oregon.
It’s an offensive scheme that could suit Gabriel just fine, and we’ll know if his heart is really into it in Week 2 when Boise State visits Eugene. The Broncos also coaxed a talented QB through the portal in Malachi Nelson, and they’ll be looking to upend the odds.
Oregon then faces rival Oregon State in Corvallis, with the Beavers primed to take the Ducks to the woodshed for leaving the Pac-12. Oregon will not be top 4 come CFP time.
Conner Weigman – Texas A&M Aggies
“There are a lot of talented players in that locker room, and I think there are a lot of talented players who are not really excited about the way the last two years have gone.”
Those are the words of new Texas A&M head coach Mike Elko, who fails to recognize there are a lot of former students outside the locker room who also weren’t excited the last two years.
Count me among that group who also wonders if an administration that is paying Jimbo Fisher $77 million not to coach can be trusted at all.
Latest: Texas A&M’s $77 million dollar buyout payments to Jimbo Fisher after letting him go yesterday listed below.
60 Days: $19.4 million
120 Days: $7.27 million
2025: $7.27 million
2026: $7.27 million
2027: $7.27 million
2028: $7.27 million
2029: $7.27 million
2030: $7.27… pic.twitter.com/dOMGsFyZh0— Transfer Portal for Playing Time (@TP4PT) November 13, 2023
The Aggies lost some key players in the portal, and that only adds to the weight on Conner Weigman’s shoulders. Even without either Georgia or Alabama on the slate, it’s still going to be a tough fixture to navigate.
It starts with Notre Dame, then a trip to Florida in Week 3 for the SEC opener. McNeese and Bowling Green are also part of September, and the Aggies have stumbled before against such non-con opponents.
September then closes at Jerry’s World to face Arkansas, a game the Aggies might need to exit the month with a winning record. Maybe Elko and Weigman prove me wrong, but I’m making the Aggies’ opponents my picks in all five September games.
