As far as yours truly is concerned, only two things are inevitable in Major League Baseball: The Yankees’ skipper will continue to act like the petulant 4-year-old that he is, and the commissioner will continue to tweak the game until it becomes a HR/K carnival act.
A showdown this week between the two teams with the best records in the National League has bettors and fans wondering if there is a third inevitability on the horizon, that being an NLCS matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers.
Indeed, the Dodgers and Phillies are sitting 1-2, respectively, on the MLB futures to win the 2024 World Series with Los Angeles priced around +325 and Philadelphia going for +370 to +500 at various MLB sportsbooks. But is that reason enough to expect them to face off in the NLCS?
Recent History Doesn’t Bode Well For Either Team
Maybe the question should be will either the Phillies or the Dodgers reach the NLCS, not whether or not both will make it. That’s because since the playoffs were expanded to six teams from each league, the top two seeds in the NL have gone 0-6 in their playoff matchups.
In 2021, it was the Giants and the Brewers falling short as the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds, respectively, each losing in their NLDS clashes. In 2022, it was the Dodgers and Braves falling to upsets in their NLDS matchups.
Atlanta and Los Angeles repeated their shortcomings in 2023, each losing their NLDS clashes as heavy favorites on the MLB odds.
Much of the blame for these failings has been laid at the byes the top 2 seeds in both leagues receive for the first round. If it happens again this time, especially if the media darling Dodgers come up empty, expect MLB to tweak the rules.
Do Phillies Have Tougher Closing Schedule?
Neither the Phillies nor the Dodgers is going to tank games because of the jinx on first and second seeds, but just in case that is the secret to making the NLCS, which one is most likely to falter and fail to win their division?
Their current division leads are similar, and both the Phillies and Dodgers have two teams within striking distance of the division leads. Philadelphia has more games against NL East foes than Los Angeles has against NL West teams, one of the biggest differences in their schedules.
Two bits Philly and LA share on the schedule front are they each have a home-&-home series with the teams currently in the basements of their respective divisions, plus the Phillies and Dodgers both have 4-game sets against the Diamondbacks in Phoenix.
MLB 2024 POSTSEASON SCHEDULE
It all begins Tuesday October 1st#RingTheBell #Phillies #MLB pic.twitter.com/SdhdkoCnPN— Oscar Budejen (@OscarBudejen) August 1, 2024
The Phillies have been struggling since the All-Star break going 5-12 after Tuesday’s win in LA to even the series with the Dodgers. But neither the Braves nor the Mets have done much to take advantage of that.
Both the Padres and Diamondbacks are playing very well, certainly better than any NL East challengers the Phillies have.
Phils & Dodgers Have The Pitching
As one would expect for two teams leading their respective divisions, both Los Angeles and Philadelphia have plenty of pitching to take them to the NLCS.
The Phillies are second in the NL with a 3.60 ERA while the Dodgers rank fifth at 3.79. Philadelphia tops the Senior Circuit with a 1.17 with the Dodgers third at 1.21. The biggest advantage Philadelphia has is a staff that has been stingy allowing homers (3rd, 114 and LA well back on the NL chart (134, 13th).
An NL pennant could ride on which team gets injured starting pitchers back from the IL. Ranger Suarez is the key arm currently sidelined for Philadelphia, and he’s still a few weeks away. Walker Buehler is expected to make one more rehab start before rejoining the LA rotation.
Neither manager, Philadelphia’s Rob Thomson and Dave Roberts in Los Angeles, relies on a single closer, and they’ve managed to mix and match very well so far. Jose Alvarado and Jeff Hoffman have combined for 22 saves in Philadelphia, while Daniel Hudson and Evan Phillips have earned 22 for the Dodgers.
Is Ohtani The X Factor?
Offensively, the teams are very close in scoring averages and in several other offensive categories. The Dodgers go yard a little more often than the Phillies, and Philadelphia swipes more bags than Los Angeles.
Should the two sides meet in the NLCS, it will be interesting to see how the Phillies pitch to Shohei Ohtani – or maybe how they don’t pitch to the Dodger star. He’s a threat to win the NL Triple Crown, currently on top in batting average and homers while trailing in RBI.
Shohei Ohtani National League Triple Crown watch:
.309 batting average (1st)
34 home runs (1st)
81 RBI (2nd, Ozuna has 86)
pic.twitter.com/39ud1ipKFd— Jack (@MidWestLAFan) August 6, 2024
Then again, my MLB pick is a Dodgers-Phils NLCS is not inevitable, so one way or another, Philadelphia hurlers aren’t going to have to worry about pitching to Ohtani or any other LA hitter.
