Nobody likes a loser. Unless, of course, you happen to be a baseball bettor who has found a really good fade among pitchers.
It certainly helps if a pitcher is having some tough luck or just employed by a poor team, but that isn’t always the case. Some hurlers just don’t get much support when it’s their turn, and if they’re being chalked at top sportsbooks, it can make for a profitable outcome.
We just lost one good fade to injury as Oakland’s Ross Stripling has been shelved with elbow trouble, but there are still three good arms out there that make a good case for betting their opponents, and it just so happens they are all lefthanders.
1 Andrew Heaney – Texas Rangers
The 2024 season got off to a losing start for Andrew Heaney, and the former 1st-round pick out of Oklahoma State has been a fine fade ever since as he piles up defeats for the defending World Series champs.
Texas dropped Heaney’s first six assignments, and stands 2-9 overall when the former Angel, Yankee and Dodger climbs the hill. That’s good enough to put about 9 units of profit into the pockets of bettors following his opponents on the MLB odds.
Tough Starts
Heaney has often labored through his starts, perhaps trying to be too fine with his offerings. He’s averaging about 86 pitches per start, and hasn’t made it through 4 innings in seven of them, nor has Heaney made it past the fifth in four of the outings.
Overall, Heaney sports a 3.99 ERA, which isn’t terrible. But the Rangers are failing to show up on his days to pitch, and averaged just 2½ runs per game during the 0-6 start. Texas is 5-6 O/U when Heaney takes his turn in Bruce Bochy’s rotation.
Heaney was skipped recently and came out this past Sunday with six scoreless innings against a Miami lineup that ranks 29th in the majors in scoring (3.65 rpg). Did he correct a flaw while missing a start, or was that mostly due to the weak Marlins bats?
Another thing to watch here is Heaney could be the odd man out if and when some of the injured Texas arms like Jon Gray and Max Scherzer get back on the mound.
2 Trevor Rogers – Miami Marlins
Pitching for the lowly Marlins on Sunday when they fell to Heaney and the Rangers was one Trevor J’Daniel Rogers. In what was a battle between hurlers each seeking just their second win of 2024, it made for a tough decision on which one to fade.
Rogers remains in search of win No. 2 after allowing 4 runs to Texas over 6 frames as a +110 underdog at Bovada (check our Bovada Review). The defeat left the Marlins 1-11 in Rogers’ dozen assignments, and off close to 10½ units for any schmuck following him and the Fish.
88 mph Trevor Rogers “fastball” gets demolished by Adolis García pic.twitter.com/SkHVmbPfuL
— Fish On First (@FishOnFirst) June 2, 2024
The good news is Miami really doesn’t have any options to replace Rogers with, and the team is very likely going to deal a pitcher or two before the deadline. That means Rogers should be going out there every 5-6 days with a chance of putting bacon on the table for bettors.
Miami’s struggles to score runs also make a strong case to fade Rogers, who almost has to throw shutout baseball to leave the game with a lead. That’s precisely what the former 1st-round pick out of high school in New Mexico did in his only win, and even then, it was dicey with the Marlins scoring just 2 runs in that contest.
Miami has been shut out twice in Rogers’ starts, and scored 1 or 2 runs in six others. The totals have been set pretty low as a result of the Marlins being offensively challenged, leading to an even 6-6 O/U split in Rogers’ starts.
3 Framber Valdez – Houston Astros
That the Astros are 4-5 in the nine starts Framber Valdez has made so far might not sound like he’d be a good MLB pick to fade. But thanks to the chalk Valdez and the Astros have been carrying in his assignments, that has been good for more than 3 units of blank ink on the fade.
One thing working against Valdez is the Astros are struggling to score. They have been a top 3 club in the AL the last three seasons in scoring, but have slipped down into eighth presently.
Valdez has also been more hittable this season than from 2021-23 when he went 40-23 with a 3.14 ERA across 84 starts. Coupled with the offense struggling to score, and sportsbooks still chalking the Astros like they’re the same club that has made the ALCS 7-straight seasons, Valdez and Houston have become a good fade.
He’s had some good outings among the nine starts so far, and is capable of becoming a pitcher to follow instead. But for now, when Valdez and the Astros are priced -140 or chalkier, I’m making my pick on the other team.
