There are close races going on in the standings, such as the AL East where the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees are slugging it out with two of the best record in the American League.
And there are some division races that aren’t very close at all, like the NL West where the Los Angeles Dodgers have a large lead despite playing below expectations.
What both of those races have in common, however, is the current leaders were the same ones forecast by the MLB futures odds at MLB betting sites back in March, and the same can’t be said for the Cy Young races where some surprises have emerged for the AL and NL hardware.
It’s Skubal’s to Lose in the AL
When clubs first arrived at their respective spring training sites, New York’s Gerrit Cole was the clear choice at sharp sportsbooks to repeat as the American League Cy Young winner after being the unanimous selection in 2023 with a 15-4 record and 2.63 ERA.
Elbow trouble shelved him until mid-June, however, and that threw the AL CY race up for grabs. Detroit’s Tarik Skubal grabbed the opportunity right out of the gate by pitching the Tigers to five wins in his first six outings, all while maintaining a sub-2.00 ERA into June.
He looked every bit like a Cy Young pitcher in his last outing, holding AL Central-leading Cleveland to a run over 7 innings, and picking up his 11th win of the season. As such, Skubal has emerged as the front-runner in the AL with a chalky -130 price.
Skubal had been part of the second tier of pitchers on the odds when the season got underway, fetching +1300 to +1500 on Opening Day. He’s a perfect 6-0 at Comerica Park where Skubal has held opposing hitters to a .168 average.
Burnes Tops Remaining AL Contenders
We tip our hats to the Orioles for the deal that brought Corbin Burnes to Baltimore from Milwaukee during the off-season. Burnes has been the veteran arm the Orioles needed and is a key reason they are on top of the AL East as July draws to a close.
Burnes got an extra feather in his cap as the starting pitcher for the LA in the recent All-Star Game and picked right where he left off with a solid effort in a win over Texas last week.
He emerged as the AL favorite after Cole was injured in the spring, and his price has gone from +800 on Opening Day to +240 presently. If Burnes wins it, he would join Gaylord Perry, Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Roy Halladay, and Max Scherzer as the only pitcher to win a Cy Young in both leagues.
Pair of NL East Arms Lead Senior Circuit Race
Atlanta strikeout artist Spencer Strider was the favorite to win the NL CY back in the spring. Strider finished a distant fourth in the 2023 NL Cy Young race despite leading the league in wins and strikeouts and was a +450 MLB pick to take the honors in 2024.
That old UCL demon showed up after just two starts, however, and Strider is now on the comeback trail following Tommy John surgery.
Zack Wheeler was running second to Strider with +800 odds on Opening Day, and that price has since been reduced to +200 despite the Phillies dropping his first four starts. Wheeler has since gone 10-1 and owns a brilliant 1.70 ERA since the break.
All of that still leaves Wheeler second in the NL race, as he trails Strider’s Atlanta teammate Chris Sale. The Braves traded infielder Vaughn Grisson to Boston last winter to acquire Sale, and it’s been a great deal for Atlanta so far.
Grissom has been sidelined in Boston by various injuries and illnesses, all while Sale has gone 13-2 with a 2.70 ERA. Sale was a +3500 bet before the season started, and is now +140 to land the NL Cy Young trophy.
Can Skenes Upset the NL Race?
Lurking in the shadows of Sale and Wheeler is a rookie pitcher who has taken the league by storm. Pitching on firm restrictions in the minors when the campaign got underway, Paul Skenes has defied the odds since Pittsburgh called him in mid-May.
The No. 1 overall pick in 2023 stands 6-1 with a 1.93 ERA after suffering his first MLB loss on Tuesday, a tough 2-1 defeat. Skenes has only 13 MLB starts under his belt, but one of those was for the National League in last week’s All-Star Game.
The rookie is +425 to continue defying the odds by winning the NL CY. It stands to reason he’s the frontrunner for NL Rookie of the Year, and Skenes would join Fernando Valenzuela in 1981 as the only two players to win both awards in the same season.
