Amid politicians doing their best to change March Madness to March Sadness, the NCAA Men’s Tournament is in full swing. That means bracket contests are all the rage in offices and factories across the nation, bringing productivity to a crawl in some cases.
Some years it’s the 5-12 matchups that send brackets to the trash cans, and other years it’s the 4-13 or 6-11 pairings that crush hopes and dreams. Why, we’ve even seen a few No. 1’s fall to No. 16’s, assuring us that no team is safe.
Identifying those potential first-round upsets don’t just save brackets, they figure heavily into winners and losers on college basketball futures boards. Here are three such contests to consider when filling out those brackets or betting on a team to go all the way.
(Note: Numbers in parentheses are tournament seedings, all times approximate.)
(6) BYU Cougars vs. (11) VCU Rams
Thursday, March 20, 2025 – 04:05 PM ET Ball Arena
Oh, to be in the Mile High City now that Cinderella’s in town. In this case, hoops fans in Denver are going to see Cinderella dance twice on Thursday, the first when the East Region 6/11 contest pits BYU of the Big 12 against VCU of the A-10.
There’s a consensus among top sportsbooks that BYU is favored by 3 in the clash, and fans sitting at home or in their favorite pub can catch the action on TNT.
Teams Meet for Just the 2nd Time
A loss in the regular season finale to Dayton ended VCU’s impressive 9-game win streak, but it certainly did not affect the Rams at the conference tourney. Virginia Commonwealth brushed aside St. Bonaventure and Loyola Chicago to reach the A-10 Championship, then took care of George Mason who tied the Rams for the regular season title.
Brigham Young finished tied for third in the Big 12 after closing the slate on a 9-game win streak, and did a good job beating Iowa State in the quarters of the league tourney. The Cougars were no match, however, against the Cougars of Houston in the semis, going scoreless for nearly the first 7 minutes of the game before losing by 20.
Somehow, someway, VCU is going to find enough defense out on the perimeter to harass BYU’s shooters and prevail in a close game, 74-73.
(4) Texas A&M Aggies vs. (13) Yale Bulldogs
Thursday, March 20, 2025 – 7:25 PM ET, Ball Arena
Buzz Williams and the Texas Aggies are seeded fourth in the South where they will take on the Yale Bulldogs as the No. 13 seed in another matchup from the Denver pod. One of a record 14 SEC teams in the Field of 68, Texas A&M is favored by 7-7½ on the NCAAB betting sites.
Will Bulldogs Employ ‘Hack an Aggie’ Strategy?
Yale is dancing for the fourth time in the last five NCAA Tournaments, and looking to make it to the Round of 32 for a second straight season after dispatching San Diego State in another 4/13 clash a year ago.
The Bulldogs cruised to the regular season title in the Ivy League title with a 13-1 record, and their strong offense – No. 22 in scoring, No. 15 in shooting – will be tested by a Texas A&M group that is relentless when it comes to rebounding on both ends of the floor.
The Aggies are not, however, a good offensive team and their pitiful free throw shooting is what will keep Yale close in the second half for a 71-69 upset.
(5) Memphis Tigers vs. (12) Colorado State Rams
Friday, March 21, 2025 – 2 PM ET, Climate Pledge Arena
After an exhausting Thursday, we get to do it all again on Friday with another slate of 16 games.
Up in the Pacific Northwest, there will be four contests of the 4/13 or 5/12 variety on the second day of the madness, and the one we’re targeting is the West Region collision between Memphis and Colorado State.
Rematch of 2021 NIT Semifinals
There will be some that argue this isn’t a true upset since the No. 12 Rams are actually favored by 2½ against the No. 5 Tigers. That’s true, in terms of the spread, but anytime a 12 beats a 5 in March, it’s an upset in my book.
Colorado State has been on a roll for more than a month now, winning its last seven Mountain West contests before adding three more dubyas in the MWC tournament. The Rams covered all 10 victories, from being underdogs by as many as 6 points to chalked by 17½.
Memphis won its last five regular season games, and then all three appearances in the American Conference Tournament to claim that prize. But the Tigers looked very sloppy at times in those three tourney wins, all while Colorado State has been clamping down stronger and stronger on defense with each performance.
The right pick here is on a streaking Colorado State club to send Memphis home with a 76-71 defeat.
