If NFL spread betting has you down, you could always try your hand at betting on NFL totals instead. Every game has a betting line for the total number of points scored between the teams, and you bet if that number will go over or under the line.
But be warned, bad beats are just as possible with totals betting as they are with the spread in the NFL. You never know when a missed extra point or a garbage time touchdown is going to do you in.
We have put together some tips and proven systems for betting on NFL totals that you could use to maximize value for the 2024 season.
Recent Trends for NFL Totals Favor the Under
It may not seem like it, but points and yards have both decreased in the NFL in 3 straight seasons, something that’s only happened one other time since the 1970 merger. In the last 2 seasons, the average points scored by a team was just under 22.0 points per game, the 1st time that’s happened since 2006-07.
What is causing this? You could say when the Chiefs lost Super Bowl LV to the Buccaneers, it marked a pivotal shift in the NFL in how defenses would approach high-flying offenses like Kansas City.
The Buccaneers used a minimal number of blitzes, and a lot of two-high safety looks in that game, which frustrated the Chiefs with their reshuffled offensive line in the 31-9 defeat. Starting in 2021, we have seen teams dial back the blitzes and drop those safeties to prevent getting beat over the top.
NEVER FORGETTING THIS 🏆🙌 It’s been three years — but it feels like yesterday — since Tom Brady and the Buccaneers won Super Bowl LV at Raymond James Stadium. Do you remember that night? https://t.co/OhwofgnK9s pic.twitter.com/EIVmVPuLkG
— 10 Tampa Bay (@10TampaBay) February 7, 2024
You can also blame the retirements of so many veteran quarterbacks, who have been replaced by inexperienced, younger players at the most important position that drives scoring, for why scoring is down.
While the top-rated sportsbooks are obviously aware of this scoring decrease when they set their lines, that still doesn’t mean the under hasn’t been more valuable than ever since 2001.
The NFL Under Has Been Profitable 3 Years Running
In the 2020 pandemic season without crowds, team scoring was at an all-time high in the NFL at 24.8 points per game. The previous high was 23.4 points in 2013. Despite that being such a hard season to handicap with the pandemic, the lines were efficient as the over had a record of 133-132-4 (49.4% hit rate). That was almost the same as 2019, when the over had a record of 132-134-1 (49.4%).
Since 2001 (including playoffs), the over hits in the NFL 48.3% of the time, the under hits 50.1%, and an average of 4.3 games will push during the season. Most sportsbooks will give you your stake back on a push when the total number of points equals the total scored in the game.
But generally speaking, the NFL leans towards the under. However, what’s happened the last 3 years is unprecedented in the 21st century in this league. Look at the over/under records since 2021:
- 2021: Over was 129-151-5 (45.3% hit rate)
- 2022: Over was 125-157-2 (44.0% hit rate – lowest since at least 2001)
- 2023: Over was 129-150-6 (45.3% hit rate)
That means in the 2022 season, you could have been profitable just by betting the under in every NFL game as it hit 55.3% of the time (56.0% with pushes). Remember, you need to win at least 52.38% of the time to be profitable assuming -110 odds and a consistent unit size on your bets.
Prime-Time Unders Rule Sunday and Monday Nights in 2022 and 2023
Who doesn’t love sitting down to watch an island game on Sunday or Monday night? These games get a lot of betting attention and usually generate a lot of hype, but recent seasons have produced a lot of stinkers as far as offensive fireworks go in prime time.
Take Sunday Night Football in the 2023 season as an example. This is supposed to be the premiere game of the week in most cases. But in 2023, the over was 4-13-2 (21.1% hit rate) on SNF. This comes a season after the overs were 6-13 (31.6%).
Unders have also been great for Monday night games the last couple of seasons:
- In 2022, the under was 10-6-2 (55.6% hit rate) on Monday nights.
- In 2023, the under was 16-7 (69.6% hit rate) on Mondays, including a stunning 13-1 record (92.9%) through Week 12.
Many NFL fans don’t like betting unders, especially for island games they are likely to watch closely, because it hurts the viewing experience when you are actively rooting for mistakes and bad plays to keep scoring low.
But unders in general have been the profitable method for 3 years in a row now, and we’re waiting to see if things are going to regress to the mean or not as this is unprecedented in recent history for the NFL.
Regression to the Mean: Expect the Return of Overs in 2024?
The last 3 seasons account for 3 of the 5 best seasons to bet the under since 2001. The other times this happened were in 2005 and 2017.
In 2005, regression to the mean hit after a record-setting offensive year after the league reinforced illegal contact. In 2017, a lot of quality quarterbacks were seriously injured, something that also happened in 2023 with a quarter of the league’s starters suffering a season-ending injury (Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow, Kirk Cousins, Justin Herbert, Deshaun Watson, etc.).
But 2021-23 is the only time since 2001 where there were 3 years in a row where one side of the total (over or under) won over 52.5% of the time. We have never seen an NFL that decreased in scoring 4 years in a row like this, so with some quarterbacks coming back healthy, maybe 2024 will be a season to start leaning into the overs again.
Know Your Key Numbers for NFL Totals Betting
When betting on NFL totals, there are key numbers to keep in mind. The most common point total in the NFL is 44 points, a key number for betting. Think of all the games that end in that range like a 23-20 or 24-21 final.
Besides 44, other key numbers include 41, 51, and 37. Just those 4 numbers alone account for about 16% of the final totals in NFL games in recent years.
Another key number is 47, and some NFL bettors probably learned that the hard way in Super Bowl 58 between the 49ers and Chiefs. For much of the 2 weeks leading up to the big game, the total was 47.5 points. The under felt valuable with the way the Chiefs held every team under 27 points except Green Bay last year, and we know the 49ers have talent on defense.
But on Super Bowl Sunday, the line shifted at many sportsbooks to 46.5 points. Why? Does someone know something we don’t?
However, this would have been a poor bet if you liked the under, because 47 is a key number. Sure enough, the game went to overtime as the teams kept exchanging scores, and the Chiefs walked it off with a 25-22 win. The original under of 47.5 points hit after all, but anyone who took the late number was the owner of a bad beat.
This is why key numbers are important in how you strategize your NFL total bets:
- If you are betting on the over, you want to get lower than the key number like 43.5 instead of 44 or 44.5.
- If you are betting on the under, you want to get higher than the key number like 47.5 instead of 47 or the dreaded 46.5.
You don’t want to be the bettor who took under 50.5 only to see the game end 27-24. That’s why you try to find the best price to get under 51 or 51.5 for such a game.
Following the line movement during the week is very important. Things like injuries and weather reports can move the line ever so slightly, and sometimes those changes end up deciding the over/under result.
Live Betting Can Be Effective for NFL Totals Betting
Another strategy to make use of is in-game betting or live betting. Maybe you get a read on a game in the 1st quarter and see the over isn’t going to hit, so you could hedge your bet by taking the live under.
But hedging your pregame bet is a delicate situation that takes some experience to get good at. You don’t always need to hedge, and you certainly shouldn’t panic at the start of games or try to break even. Sometimes you just need to let things ride regardless of how the game starts.
Leveraging Live Betting Value
But one of the best values in live betting on totals is the way the line can change drastically from the pregame line based on how the game starts. This is where your gut feeling on the matchup could really pay off as you could even double down on your intuition by betting on the new line.
For example, the 2023 AFC Championship Game (Chiefs at Ravens) had a pregame total of 44 points. Felt like a solid shot at the under given you had the top 2 scoring defenses in a championship game, the Chiefs were not as strong offensively last year, and we know Lamar Jackson struggles in the playoffs. Under 44 seemed like a good bet to place.
Then when the game started, the quarterbacks came out hot with touchdown drives and it was 14-7 a few minutes into the 2nd quarter. I do not recall what the live total would have been at that point, but let’s just say it was almost surely several points higher than 44 now.
But if you still believed the game was destined for defense, you could have placed a bet on the new under, which could have been in the 50s at this point.
Sure enough, the defenses settled down, the Chiefs didn’t score after halftime, and the game ended 17-10 with just 27 points. This way you would have won your pregame bet (under 44) and your live bet (under a number higher than 44).
The Importance of Matchup Research
The opposite could also be true. A game that looks like a slog at halftime could turn into a shootout after halftime, so a bet on the live over could prove to be an easy win in the right matchup.
At the end of the day, it is about finding the right matchups. You don’t need to come up with a total pick for every game. You need to find the matchups that have trends and value you can take advantage of from your research.
- For example, the over has hit in 70.4% of home games (19-8) for the Eagles under Nick Sirianni since 2021, the highest rate in the league.
- When Dan Campbell is favored with Detroit since 2021, the over is 15-6 (71.4%), the highest rate in the league.
- When the Bengals have been an underdog since 2021, the under is a league-best 15-6 (71.4%).
Find the outliers, high or low, and avoid the Jekyll & Hyde teams who seem to just be randomly going through the motions each week.
Never be afraid to go against the grain too. The NFL loves to zig when you expect it to zag. In the Patrick Mahomes era, you might think the games where the Chiefs are a home favorite are ripe for scoring, but that’s not the case. Since 2018, the over is 22-35 (38.6%) in games where the Chiefs are a home favorite, the 4th-worst hit rate in the NFL in that time.
It takes time and research, but that’s the only way you’ll get to hitting 53% and higher each season on NFL totals betting.
