Regular season schedules are wrapping up, with some conferences already beginning their league tournaments, and by this time next week, conference tourneys will be in full swing.
Selection Sunday is drawing near, which means we will soon know the initial winners of the 2024-25 men’s basketball season when the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee makes it official with the announcement of the Field of 68.
Bettors who have been playing the spreads at NCAAB betting sites already know who the real winners are, and you can bet they also know who the losers are. Simply put, some teams have been profitable to follow while others have been perfect for fading, and it’s worth noting those teams as invites to the dance are about to go out.
(Note that all stats listed are through Monday, March 3.)
Dookies Covering Some Fat Spreads
For more than 40 years, Duke has been a force on the collegiate hardwood. The Blue Devils have won five National Championships, made 17 trips to the Final Four and are about to return to the NCAA Tournament for the third time in as many seasons under Jon Scheyer.
While it’s difficult to surpass what they’ve already achieved, this year’s Blue Devils bunch could rank as one of the best and certainly qualifies in terms of winning both on the floor and at the window.
Duke’s 27-3 record straight-up is augmented by a lucrative 20-10 mark against the spread. Considering all of the public mark-up Blue Devils spreads include, that’s quite impressive.
They aren’t the only ACC outfit making friends with bettors as the Clemson Tigers (24-5 SU) are a solid 19-10 ATS. Neither team is trending either way in the totals column, with Duke 16-14 O/U and Clemson 15-14.
The Blue Devils are generally showing up neck-&-neck with Auburn on the college basketball futures, both teams around +330 to win it all, while Clemson is further back at +6000. On the opposite end of the cover chart in the ACC, North Carolina State and Miami have been the best fades, each stumbling to a 9-20 ATS record.
Gators Taking Big Bite Of Action
As good as Duke and Clemson have come out against the NCAAB odds, they are not at the top of the list among teams from Power 5 Conferences. That honor belongs to the Florida Gators, who head into their final two contests with a sweet 21-8 ATS record.
Auburn has already wrapped up the regular season title and top seed for the upcoming SEC Tournament. A showdown for the No. 2 seed will take place this week between Florida and Alabama, both with 12-4 conference records.
The Gators have already taken out two No. 1s this season:
- First, beating Tennessee in Gainesville in an early-January clash.
- Then, they defeated Auburn on the road about a month later.
That will give Florida a ton of confidence heading into the conference tourney, as well as March Madness.
While the Gators are listed as a No. 2 seed for the NCAA Tournament, they rank as a No. 1 according to the futures. Auburn and Duke are trailed by Houston (+750) at the tip-top of list, with Florida fourth at +950.
Tritons & Colonials Top ATS Winners
Looking outside the Power 5 is where we find the two biggest spread beaters in men’s college hoops. UC-San Diego of the Big West owns the best ATS mark at 23-5, followed by Horizon League’s Robert Morris at 23-6.
The Tritons still have a couple of games left before they can secure the Big West title. They didn’t even move to D-I until 2020, and this is the first season UCSD is eligible for the NCAA Tournament following a 4-year transition probation.
The Colonials have already claimed the Horizon title and begin their march towards an AQ slot at the Big Dance later this week in Indianapolis. After dropping four of their first half-dozen league contests, Robert Morris closed the regular season by winning 13 of its last 14. The Colonials are seeking their first trip to the NCAA Tournament since 2015.
Odds & Ends
One of the toughest conferences to find consistent winning college basketball picks this season is the Big 12. The top 4 teams in the league hover just above the .500 level, making them break-even propositions, and the best bet to make has been a fade of Baylor (9-17-2 ATS).
Michigan State (19-9-1 ATS) and Wisconsin (18-10-1) were money-makers in the Big Ten, with the Spartans also profitable in the totals column (9-20 O/U).
It looks like Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga will once again represent the West Coast, yawn. But both were difficult to handicap at 14-16 and 13-18, respectively, at beating the line. Oregon State (19-11 ATS) was the safest play in the WCC, and also ran hot to the ‘over’ (21-9 O/U).
