The NBA Rookie of the Year award is a fun way for bettors to have action all season long at the NBA betting sites.
The people who follow both college basketball and the NBA have a leg up. They are familiar with these players as they enter the league. However, everyone can get involved in betting this award.
Let’s take a look at the criteria used to determine the award in order to make a winning pick on the NBA Rookie of the Year award.
How is the Award Determined?
Sportswriters and broadcasters from the United States and Canada will each cast a first, second and third-place vote. A first-place vote is worth five points, a second-place vote is worth three points and a third-place vote is worth one point.
Regardless of the number of first-place votes, the player with the highest point total will win the award.
Criteria of the Judges
In the NBA, Rookie of the Year award voters all have their own individual criteria. However, looking at the way the group votes as a whole, we can determine that they look at three major categories of counting stats, contribution to winning and draft position.
1. Counting Stats
Counting stats are the traditional stats that most of us grew up with.
Counting stats are the overall averages in points, rebounds, assists, blocks and steals. While “advanced stats”, such as true shooting percentage, win share and offensive and defensive rating are securing a greater place in the discussion, most voters still rely on the traditional counting stats.
The best way to win the award is to finish with the highest totals in the points, rebounds and assist categories. Blocks and steals can also sway the voters, particularly if the candidate is in the top 10 in the league in either category.
2. Contribution to Winning
If two players have similar counting stats, voters will usually default to the player whose team has had greater success in the win-loss column.
For example, in the 2023-24 season, Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren could finish with similar stats. In that case, Chet Holmgren will have an edge because his team, the Oklahoma City Thunder, are fighting to be at the top of the Western Conference.
Victor Wembanyama and his San Antonio Spurs are one of the worst teams in the league, languishing in the lottery once again.
3. Draft Position
Although this is unfair, when players are similar in their counting stats and contributions to winning, voters often default to players drafted higher.
For example, in each of the last 6 years, the rookie of the year has been a top-five pick. In 2017, Malcolm Brogdon won the award as the 36th overall pick in the second round. Brogdon is the first player drafted in the second round or later to win the award since 1957.
Other than Malcolm Brogdon, the only player not drafted in the top 10 to recently win the award was Michael Carter Williams, who was drafted at number 11 and won in 2014.
To find a player outside of the top 10 who won the award before that, we have to go back to 1988 when Mark Jackson of the New York Knicks won the award as the 18th overall pick. Players drafted in the top 10 have a huge advantage, especially in a close race.
How to Approach Making a Winning Wager on the NBA Rookie of the Year
The great part of the NBA Rookie of the Year award is you can bet on it all season long.
Most bettors prefer to place a bet in the preseason, choosing their favorite rookie out of the top five picks. However, as you watch the season unfold, you can also find players who could be sneaking under the radar and present value.
Even if you don’t like a player right at the start of the season, wait and watch the season unfold. Rookie of the Year award odds are posted all season long.
To make a winning wager on the NBA Rookie of the Year Award, your best bet is to predict the player who will finish with the best counting stats. If you predict that two players will be very close, remember to use contribution to winning and draft position as your tiebreakers. Also remember, players drafted in the top five overall have a huge edge in this award. Armed with this information, you are ready to dive in, break down the players and make a winning pick on the NBA Rookie of the Year at top-rated sportsbooks.
