Shohei Ohtani is the biggest name in Major League Baseball today. But the start of the 2024 MLB season has been rocked by a betting scandal involving Ohtani’s former translator Ippei Mizuhara and $4.5 million in wire transfers to a California bookmaker that was under federal investigation.
Illegal betting and baseball have a sordid history as Pete Rose, still the all-time leader in hits, was infamously banned from the game for betting on it while he was a player and manager.
But the best player in the league to be involved with betting like this, even if it never included baseball bets, would be quite the story. This was only uncovered in late March, so the full summary of the findings and possible consequences are not available.
But what impact could this have on the handicapping for Dodgers’ futures this season, including the team’s World Series odds and Ohtani’s MVP chances? He is the reigning AL MVP and was a favorite to win another MVP in his first season with the Dodgers.
Let’s examine what’s going on with Ohtani and the Dodgers.
The Betting Scandal
It was ESPN who broke the news in March 2024 about this betting scandal involving Ohtani and his longtime interpreter Ippei Mizuhara, who has worked closely with the Japanese player since 2013 when the superstar was 18 years old.
Not only does Mizuhara translate Japanese to English for Ohtani, who knows limited English, but he also has been a confidant, conditioning coach, and throwing partner for the ballplayer. Naturally, the Dodgers signed Mizuhara to a contract when Ohtani joined the team this year so that he could continue his important role with him in Los Angeles.
But according to the ESPN investigation, there were $4.5 million in wire payments from Ohtani’s bank account to a Southern California bookmaker that was under federal investigation since sports betting is not legal in the state.
On the evening of March 19, Mizuhara told ESPN reporters that he had big gambling debts that needed to be paid, so he asked his friend Ohtani for the money. Mizuhara said that Ohtani personally transferred the funds directly to the bookmaker. This is the same story Mizuhara told the Dodgers’ clubhouse after the game that day.
Before this story could run on ESPN on the morning of March 20, Ohtani’s legal team got ahead of it and released a statement, which read “We discovered that Shohei has been the victim of a massive theft, and we are turning the matter over to the authorities.” The Dodgers fired Mizuhara that afternoon, and he quickly changed his original story to say that Ohtani had no knowledge of the payments. Ohtani’s team says he first learned of the missing money after Mizuhara addressed the team about it.
Mizuhara insists that while he has a gambling addiction, he never bet on baseball. But any illegal betting in the state of California would still be subject to discipline by the league if Ohtani was involved.
Two days later, MLB announced their formal investigation into the betting scandal. In the meantime, Ohtani is allowed to play games with the Dodgers.
Ohtani spoke publicly about the scandal for the first time on March 25. He denied any knowledge of Mizuhara’s gambling or the money transfers. He stated that he’s never bet on baseball or done any betting with illegal bookmakers.
Shohei Ohtani addresses the media regarding Ippei Mizuhara and the recent gambling allegations. pic.twitter.com/tioSqvkPvn
— SportsNet LA (@SportsNetLA) March 25, 2024
But when Ohtani’s legal team was asked in a follow-up question on which authorities they submitted the fraud accusation to, they declined to comment, which deepens the speculation about what really happened here.
Is it at least plausible that Ohtani could have knowingly paid off his friend’s debt for gambling? Yes, and if there is zero evidence he ever bet himself, then he will likely get off with no more than a fine for this scandal as MLB will not want to tarnish their cash cow and most important player right now.
It is also certainly possible Mizuhara was a gambling addict and deceived his rich friend and took advantage of him to pay his debts. Ohtani would really be hurting his legacy if he falsely accused someone of a major theft worth millions of dollars, not to mention burning a long friendship to save face in the process. You don’t make that accusation without some good evidence behind it.
Will we ever see that evidence in the form of texts reminiscent of the Deflategate investigation in the NFL? Can Ohtani destroy a cell phone as good as Tom Brady did? We may not find out for some time, but the MLB investigation goes on.
So does the Dodgers’ season with Ohtani, for now.
Dodgers Still Favored to Win the World Series
Baseball is a tricky sport as one player usually cannot move the needle that much in a turn-based game that is a series of pitcher vs. batter duels. For as great as Ohtani has been, the Angels never had a winning record or made the playoffs in his 6 seasons in 2018-23. He historically stands out as an outlier as a 2-time MVP despite playing for a losing team both years.
But in going to the Los Angeles Dodgers this year, Ohtani joins a franchise that is stable and has had a lot of recent success. The Dodgers have been to 11 straight postseasons and won the World Series in 2020.
This is almost like Kevin Durant joining the Golden State Warriors in 2016 after they had a 73-win season the year before. Ohtani joining the Dodgers just makes them a stronger team even if his UCL injury means you won’t see him pitch anytime soon.
On November 1, 2023, the Dodgers had +800 odds to win the 2024 World Series at the top MLB betting sites, which ranked 2nd behind the Atlanta Braves (+650). But on February 15, the Dodgers were up to +360 and the new favorite to win it all.
On March 28, with the 2024 season getting underway, the Dodgers were +350, the best MLB odds to win it all even with the Ohtani scandal floating out there.
The Dodgers are off to a 4-2 start, one of the best first weeks of any team this year. They should be a threat all season regardless of what happens with this Ohtani saga. They’ll be a threat in the playoffs again, though we’ll see if Ohtani can be the missing piece to get them over the hump again in the postseason.
Even if he was disciplined, it would unlikely take him out of the season unless some bombshell drops that we didn’t see coming.
Here are all of Shohei Ohtani’s at-bats against the Cardinals.
Is Ippei in his head? pic.twitter.com/6VBBfcaiMR
— Diamond-Centric (@diamondcentric) April 1, 2024
Ohtani’s MVP Odds
Going into the season, Ohtani opened with +900 odds to win NL MVP in 2024. Only Atlanta’s Ronald Acuña (+550) and new LA teammate Mookie Betts (+650) were higher.
Granted, some sportsbooks had Ohtani at +350 back in December, months before this scandal came out. He fell from +850 to +800 in March after the betting story first came out.
Naturally, Ohtani was always going to be on a short list of favorites to win the NL MVP award after he won MVP twice in the AL with the Angels. But he had an advantage those seasons in that he was a dual threat as a pitcher and hitter, doing things no one else was doing in this era.
That’s not going to happen this season as his UCL injury will prevent him from pitching all year. So, he loses that edge in the MVP race.
The other issue for Ohtani this year is we can question if he’s even the MVP of his own team. Mookie Betts, who won the 2018 AL MVP with Boston, is ahead of Ohtani with +550 odds to win this year’s NL MVP. He is off to an incredible start through 6 games with 4 home runs, 10 RBIs, 7 walks, and 1.757 OPS.
With Ohtani not hitting any homers yet, he is losing ground to Betts, but it is obviously a long season in baseball. Given the details of this story and some past precedent for gambling incidents, it just does not seem likely that MLB will bring the hammer down on their No. 1 superstar.
So, you can approach Ohtani’s MVP odds and the chances for his Dodgers as you normally would with the expectation he’s not going to get suspended. But you have to really question if he is ever a good MVP bet this year given he won’t be pitching and what Betts can do on the same team.
