It has been almost seven years since the baseball world was abuzz with the signing of Japanese wunderkind Shohei Ohtani.
Along with the excitement of his arrival to Major League Baseball, there was also a lot of mystery surrounding his ability to become an established 2-way star at the plate and on the mound on this side of the Pacific Ocean.
And there were a lot of naysayers insisting Ohtani would never live up to the hype because, well, that’s just the way things go these days with keyboard warriors on social media sites.
It’s safe to say Ohtani has proven the naysayers wrong. Granted, he hasn’t been durable on the mound with just 86 big league starts and not taking the mound in 2019 and 2024 following elbow injuries that required surgery.
But while injuries have interfered with his 2-way stardom, Ohtani has more than lived up to the hype offensively by making a huge impact with a bat in his hand or running the bases, and that effect has shown up at top-rated sportsbooks.
First Expectations: Dodgers Make the Playoffs
One piece of baseball theatre that Ohtani remains a mystery concerns his performance in the postseason after he signed with the Los Angeles Angels prior to the 2018 campaign, a team that has not been to the playoffs for 10 years now, including his first six MLB campaigns.
He seems assured of playing October baseball this time around after signing a mega free-agent deal last winter a little further north on I-5 with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
It would take a monumental collapse for the Dodgers to miss the postseason, so we fully expect Ohtani to break his cherry with his first playoff appearance this fall. The simulator at ESPN currently calculates the Dodgers chances for the playoffs at greater than 99.9%.
After coming up short and generally underachieving in the playoffs the past 11 seasons -the pandemic-marred 2020 being the lone exception–, Ohtani is carrying heavy expectations from the LA fans and on MLB odds boards to help the Dodgers shake the shortcoming blues.
Expect Power & Speed
It turns out that even when Ohtani isn’t pitching, he is still a 2-way star. Or maybe it should be worded that when he is pitching, he is a 3-way star.
No matter how you phrase it, Ohtani is that rare combination of power and speed that scouts are forever in search of, managers always want in their lineups, and general managers always have to figure out a way to afford.
Just how rare was seen this past week when Ohtani became the sixth member of the 40 HR/40 SB Club. He not only joined the club but became its honorary president by reaching the 40/40 level in the fewest number of games.
| Player | YR/Team | Games To Reach 40/40 |
|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | 2024 Dodgers | 126 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 2006 National | 147 |
| Jose Canseco | 1988 Athletics | 151 |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | 2023 Braves | 152 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 1998 Mariners | 153 |
| Barry Bonds | 1966 Giants | 154 |
In true Sho-Time fashion, he stole his 40th base and hit his 40th homer in the same game, the clout being a walk-off grand slam.
One thing we might expect is for Ohtani to be less likely to attempt steals in the postseason when games are played a little closer to the vest. Then again, his manager is Dave Roberts, who recorded one of the most dramatic postseason steals in MLB history.
Should We Expect Intentional Walks?
During Ohtani’s 2021 MVP season, he led the American League in free passes with 20. He was walked intentionally 21 more times in his 2023 MVP season.
This year, Ohtani has only been intentionally walked 8 times as August draws to a close. Compare that to New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge with 16. It is all due to being in a much deeper Dodger lineup than the one Ohtani batted in with the Angels.
Since Mookie Betts returned to the LA lineup two weeks ago, Roberts has been inking Ohtani to leadoff in the batting order. Earlier this year, Betts was leading off, followed by Freddie Freeman.
Issuing a free pass to Ohtani now means having to face Betts and Freeman as the next two hitters, leaving opposing managers less likely to try and even pitch around the Dodgers DH, much less intentionally walk him.
Which Pitchers Should Ohtani Expect to Face?
The Dodgers are most likely going to face the Phillies, Brewers, Diamondbacks and/or Padres in the NL playoffs, and we’ll have to wait and see who the sixth NL club is. Ohtani has good-to-excellent numbers against Milwaukee, Philadelphia and San Diego pitchers.
He’s batted .290 against current Padres arms, .324 against the Brewers and a whopping .339 against the Brewers. A big part of his numbers against the Brewers comes from Ohtani cracking on Frankie Montas (.379, 11-29, 5 HR).
The staff Ohtani hasn’t had much luck against is Arizona. Part of his .207 average against the Diamondbacks can be attributed to familiarity, something to remember when making your MLB picks this October.
