Come the postseason, baseball bettors are eager to wager playoff series during the Wild Card, Division, League Championships and, ultimately, the World Series. Playing series during the regular season isn’t nearly as common, however.
Maybe it’s because bettors look at action during the regular season much like the players and teams: take them one game at a time.
It certainly requires more research on the part of bettors who need to look at three games instead of just one, but there’s money to be made at MLB betting sites for those willing to put in a little extra effort.
Start With the Starting Pitchers
Knowing the pitching matchups is imperative for the three games or first three contests in a 4-game set. Those starting pitchers drive the moneylines and other MLB odds for the individual contests, and those numbers play a huge role in setting the series prices.
Knowing all the mound duels might sound like a no-brainer, but it can’t be stressed enough given the willingness of teams today to protect players – especially pitchers – who have suffered even minor injuries that would have players 20 years ago remaining in the lineup.
It might also seem obvious to emphasize the importance of the first game. The moneylines for the series opener are more times than not very close to the series prices, and if value can’t be found in Game 1, it’s difficult to make up for that by finding extra value in Games 2 and 3.
What Shape Are the Bullpens To Begin the Series?
As big an impact as starting pitchers have on series prices, bullpens are becoming increasingly important when making MLB picks as they pick up more and more of the innings due to starters generally only going 5-6 frames these days.
Just as hitters can get into a groove, a team’s relief corps can also find a rhythm and turn regulation 9-inning games into a 6-7 inning affairs.
Those same bullpen arms can also be overworked, and a team entering a series with its top relievers gassed from the previous set can expose value for the other side, especially a squad playing at home as the underdog.
This is where the increased work comes in for bettors. Knowing the three starting pitchers and top closer was often enough for calculating series value 20 years ago. Now, a bettor needs data on the three starters and their history against the other lineup, plus at least three relievers and how they’ve performed against those batters.
Walk Softy & Swing a Hot Bat
While pitching is rightly given priority when setting the odds, hitting can frequently be pushed too far down the list, if not overlooked completely, by bettors.
Hitters often experience streaky periods; when they are hot, the baseball comes in looking more like a beachball. Conversely, that baseball can also look like a BB for prolonged oh-fer stretches.
In addition to a hot or cold streak by the best batters, there is a need to gauge the construction of the entire lineup. When Roger Maris swatted 61 big flies in 1961, he wasn’t walked intentionally the entire season thanks to having Mickey Mantle hitting behind him most of the time.
A hitter’s hot streak must also be measured against their previous matchups against the starting pitcher and relievers, and their prior history at certain ballparks.
Is There a Doctor in the House?
There’s no question that players these days, and not just on baseball diamonds, are stronger and faster than previous generations. There’s also no question that players today are more fragile than a generation ago.
During the first week of June 2024 (June 1-7), there were 34 players added to an injured list, bereavement list or granted paternity leave. Thirty-four.
Add in MLB teams moving more and more towards what the NBA has called ‘load management’ in the last 10 years. It’s certainly not new; players do need some time off to recover from the daily grind of a baseball season, but it’s being used more regularly now.
It makes it more difficult for bettors to determine just when a manager might rest a key bat in the lineup, and also makes Cal Ripken Jr.’s consecutive game streak seem a very safe record.
Rivalries & Home/Away Splits
It can be tricky to handicap individual rivalry games, much less to assign value between two rivals for an entire series. That’s especially true of a bettor who is a fan of one team or the other.
We do know that oddsmakers account for more public reaction to a line for a game between the Astros and Rangers than when either team plays the Marlins or the Rays. When emotions run too high, the best advice is to back off.
Factoring in home and away splits is as essential as checking the injured lists for both teams. Bettors need to not only look at overall records at home or on the road, but also at the trends between the two teams.
