The dust has settled on free agency and the 2024 NFL draft. The next big NFL event will be the schedule release in less than a week. Still, we wanted to take a look at the Super Bowl odds from top-rated sportsbooks like BetOnline (check our BetOnline Review) as they stand today.
There are still 9 months before we go into NFL betting sites for Super Bowl LIX, but enough has changed with these teams that we feel confident in making some predictions on the best bets for these Super Bowl odds.
We have broken the teams down by tiers with our top pick in each tier below. We have noted a few instances where a team’s Super Bowl odds have changed significantly since the odds came out in February right after the Chiefs beat San Francisco in Super Bowl LVIII.
Super Bowl Top Tier: Chiefs Remain Favorite for Another Championship
Kansas City still has enough advantages over the league to stay on top of the odds for Super Bowl LIX. Here are the top 8 teams with odds better than +1800 according to BetOnline.
- Kansas City Chiefs (+500)
- San Francisco 49ers (+650)
- Baltimore Ravens (+1200)
- Houston Texans (+1200) – Up from +2800
- Cincinnati Bengals (+1400)
- Philadelphia Eagles (+1400) – Up from +2000
- Detroit Lions (+1500)
- Buffalo Bills (+1600)
Are we setting the expectations too high for Houston in Year 2 for C.J. Stroud and coach DeMeco Ryans? Maybe, but no contender has climbed in the odds more than Houston after a great offseason that saw them retain offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, sign edge rusher Danielle Hunter and trade for wide receiver Stefon Diggs to give them arguably the best receiving corps in the NFL.
People are souring on the abilities of Buffalo and Baltimore to take down the Chiefs in a big game. Stroud and the Texans might be the next rival to Kansas City, and they will meet at Arrowhead this season. Very intrigued to see where that game lands on the schedule. Is it a September game that can be an early statement for the Texans, or is it late in the season with home-field advantage possibly up for grabs?
Still, you can see an AFC lean in these odds as San Francisco is significantly favored to win the NFC again. The 49ers have been in the last 3 NFC Championship Games but have yet to win a ring under Kyle Shanahan. You just wonder if it’s ever going to happen at this point. Maybe it will take someone getting the Chiefs out of the Super Bowl for the 49ers to win.
The Eagles are going to have to show the collapse was on the new coordinators last year after changing those positions again this year. They also lost Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox to retirement. Not sure their improvement in odds is warranted as much as it means Dallas had an underwhelming offseason in the NFC East.
As for the Lions, they need to make bigger strides defensively to be taken seriously as a championship-winning team.
Detroit Lions GM Brad Holmes says Lions QB Jared Goff has “earned” an extension and a deal is currently a “high priority.” https://t.co/fdQFT3Yr7y
— Pride of Detroit (@PrideOfDetroit) May 9, 2024
Houston was an awesome pick at +2000 or higher. It’s not as great of a pick at +1200. The right pieces are there, but we need to see it all come together as you never know how those high-priced free agents will perform with a new team and scheme.
We’ll still trust the Chiefs with Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones and company to get it done again. They know the history on the line with that unprecedented 3-peat. Losing L’Jarius Sneed at corner should not stop them from getting it done.
- NFL Pick: Super Bowl LIX Winner – Kansas City Chiefs (+500) at BetOnline
The Next Tier: Green Bay the Latest Gamble in the NFC?
The next 7 teams comprise the 2nd tier as they all have Super Bowl odds of +4000 or better at BetOnline:
- Dallas Cowboys (+1800)
- Green Bay Packers (+1800)
- New York Jets (+1800) – Up from +2500
- Los Angeles Rams (+2800) – Up from +3300
- Atlanta Falcons (+2800) – Up from +3300
- Miami Dolphins (+3300) – Down from +2000
- Chicago Bears (+4000)
Despite the Cowboys blowing so many teams out last year, they folded badly in the wild card game at home and lost to Green Bay. The Cowboys lost defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, running back Tony Pollard, left tackle Tyron Smith and they had very little money to spend in free agency. Their biggest signing was linebacker Eric Kendricks, who used to play for new coordinator Mike Zimmer in Minnesota.
It just feels like the Cowboys are a team you need to count out in the playoffs as we all know it’s been almost 30 years since the team advanced past the NFC divisional round.
The Packers might be the latest NFC team to go on a run and make the Super Bowl this year. They finished hot behind Jordan Love, they were a historically young team and coach Matt LaFleur has won 67.5% of his games. They have a new defensive coordinator instead of sticking with Joe Barry, and they were already a drive away from knocking off the 49ers in the playoffs in San Francisco.
The Rams are another team on the rise in odds in the NFC thanks to the offense looking great down the stretch with Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams providing Matthew Stafford a nice trio of weapons when you include Cooper Kupp. Aaron Donald retired but they did draft edge rusher Jared Verse in the 1st round. Sean McVay has been to the Super Bowl twice in his career and knows how to win. It’s a dark horse pick at this point, but any San Francisco slip up in the NFC West, and the Rams should be the team built to take advantage there.
The Falcons have also been climbing with the acquisition of Kirk Cousins, but that Michael Penix Jr. draft pick just does them no favors in 2024. It should have been an edge rusher (Dallas Turner), corner (Quinyon Mitchell), or wide receiver (Rome Odunze). Cousins is a good quarterback and will look incredible compared to Desmond Ridder, but he’s not going to be championship caliber with just one quality wideout (Drake London) and a defense unlikely to be elite.
Give me the Packers or Rams over the Falcons in the NFC. Also, while the Bears did a great job in the draft, we’re fading any rookie quarterback from winning a Super Bowl. It will likely happen someday, but Caleb Williams in 2024 is not the pick for it.
As for the AFC, the Dolphins and Jets still have to topple the Bills, who have won the division every year since 2020. The Bills may be a little weakened this year, but we need to see if the Dolphins can ever beat the good teams under Mike McDaniel, and we haven’t seen Aaron Rodgers play at a high level since 2021. He’s going on 41 and tore his Achilles last year. He also only went to 1 Super Bowl in his prime, so it’s not like he’s a safe pick to get through a tough AFC to the big game.
Not sure why the Jets have climbed so much in Super Bowl odds and the Dolphins have fallen this offseason, but neither is a great bet in an AFC with the Chiefs, Ravens, Texans, Bengals and Bills.
On the other side, the NFC has far fewer great quarterbacks and landmines to step over in January. If Jordan Love raises his game or even just plays like he did in the 2nd half of 2023 this year, we like the Packers to go the distance for the NFC this year.
- NFL Pick: Super Bowl LIX Winner – Green Bay Packers (+1800) at BetOnline
We’re Going To Need a Miracle Tier (+4500 to +8000 Odds)
Our next 9 teams all have Super Bowl odds in the range of +4500 to +8000 at BetOnline. No NFL team has won a Super Bowl with preseason odds like this since the 2001 Patriots (+6000), and that team needed several miracles. Good luck:
- Cleveland Browns (+4500) – Down from +3300
- Jacksonville Jaguars (+4500) – Down from +3300
- Los Angeles Chargers (+4500) – Down from +2200
- Pittsburgh Steelers (+5000) – Up from +6600
- Indianapolis Colts (+6000) – Down from +4000
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6600) – Down from +5000
- Las Vegas Raiders (+8000) – Down from +7500
- Minnesota Vikings (+8000) – Down from +5000
- Seattle Seahawks (+8000) – Down from +6600
Amusingly, all of these teams have dropped by at least +500 in Super Bowl odds since February, except for the Pittsburgh Steelers, who improved by +1600.
The Steelers spared themselves a Kenny Pickett vs. Mason Rudolph quarterback battle by replacing them with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. It may not work out, but it should be more interesting to watch. However, Mike Tomlin has not won a playoff game since the 2016 season, and Wilson hasn’t had a really deep playoff run since 2014. We’ll pass on Pittsburgh getting out of this AFC.
The conference being so loaded at the top makes it hard to trust teams like the Browns and Jaguars when we just haven’t seen enough consistent, elite play from Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence. Watson hasn’t been good period since joining the Browns.
With the Colts, we have no idea if Anthony Richardson can stay healthy, let alone if he’s great enough to win it all. The Colts almost won a division title with Gardner Minshew last year, but good luck to him even keeping it close if he’s the starter in Vegas in a division with Mahomes and Justin Herbert.
However, even with Herbert getting a great coach in Jim Harbaugh, it’s tough to win that division when the Chiefs have won it every year since 2016. The Chargers also let go of their veteran receivers, so Herbert is going to be adjusting to a new offensive system with very young receivers. This may work out eventually, but the Super Bowl odds have soured on the Chargers more than most teams this offseason. We can’t help but agree.
The Buccaneers appear to have a ceiling and that’s only been good for 8 or 9 wins in the worst division in the league. They also focused on keeping their core together this year, so it’s not like they added a lot of talent to get better. It would be easy to see them miss the playoffs altogether in 2024.
Fading the Vikings with a rookie quarterback. They suffered one of the biggest drops in Super Bowl odds after letting go of quarterback Kirk Cousins and edge rusher Danielle Hunter in free agency. They replaced them in the 1st round of the draft with J.J. McCarthy and Dallas Turner, but it’s a work in progress.
That leaves the Seahawks with rookie head coach Mike Macdonald, the young defensive coordinator from the Ravens who just had the No. 1 defense in every key category. The Seahawks have good pieces on offense, but the defense held the team back the last few years.
If we are going with a longshot here, we might as well lean on that idea of the NFC being the easier conference to win and the potential for a San Francisco regression season. Give Geno Smith a real defense and maybe he has that one magical year to wind up in the Super Bowl.
- NFL Pick: Super Bowl LIX Winner – Seattle Seahawks (+8000) at BetOnline
Bottom Tier: The Miracle of Miracles (Odds of +10000 and Higher)
With the bottom 8 teams, we are looking at odds of 100:1 or higher at BetOnline. This would be in the neighborhood of Kurt Warner and the 1999 Rams, who were +15000 in the preseason before winning it all.
Not only were these teams longshots to begin with in February, but most have seen their odds decrease since:
- Arizona Cardinals (+10000) – Down from +7500
- Denver Broncos (+10000)
- New Orleans Saints (+10000)
- New York Giants (+12500) – Down from +10000
- Washington Commanders (+12500) – Down from +10000
- Tennessee Titans (+15000) – Down from +10000
- New England Patriots (+20000) – Down from +10000
- Carolina Panthers (+25000) – Down from +15000
We’re out on the rookie quarterbacks again, so that means just say no to the Broncos (Bo Nix), Commanders (Jayden Daniels) and Patriots (Drake Maye).
Also fading any team where Daniel Jones (Giants) or Derek Carr (Saints) are the quarterbacks. There’s just never been any reason in their careers to think they can put it all together for a Super Bowl-winning season, and neither team looks prepared to field an epic defense or set of skill players that would help bring that out of them.
Feels like we’ve already leaned too much into the San Francisco falling apart angle to take Arizona, and Kyler Murray is another quarterback that’s hard to trust. Outside of that 7-0 start to the 2021 season, he has rarely played winning football in 5 years with Arizona.
The Titans would almost be a wonderful dark horse pick if the AFC wasn’t so stacked. Imagine if Will Levis showed one of those huge 2nd-year improvements with a new running back (Tony Pollard), new No. 1 wideout (Calvin Ridley), new top left tackle prospect (JC Latham) and new offensive-minded coach (Brian Callahan). It wouldn’t be the craziest thing in NFL history. Alas, the Titans are stuck in the AFC.
That leaves the Panthers, who have the worst Super Bowl odds (+25000) of any team after going 2-15 last year. The Panthers never took a single snap in the 4th quarter with a lead last year, winning both games on walk-off field goals. Bryce Young had a terrible rookie season for a No. 1 pick, but what if new head coach Dave Canales is the Sean McVay to his Jared Goff? See the 2016-17 Rams for reference, though it took another year (2018) before the Rams reached the Super Bowl.
However, the Panthers play in a lousy, winnable division, they upgraded the troubled wideout position with Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette. Maybe Canales is the new quarterback whisperer after getting career years out of Geno Smith (2022) and Baker Mayfield (2023).
It’s crazy to pick a team to go from worst to the top of the league in a year, but any of these teams winning would be rather crazy in 2024. Might as well go for the longshot of longshots and take Carolina.
NFL Pick: Super Bowl LIX Winner – Carolina Panthers (+25000) at BetOnline
