Television networks have made no secret of the fact they want the Yankees and Dodgers in the World Series for years now. And the MLB sportsbooks are selling New York and Los Angeles as the favorites to win their respective leagues and collide in the Fall Classic.
Yawn. Nothing new there.
Also not new is the fact the Yankees and Dodgers each drag a recent history of postseason failures into this year’s playoffs, regardless of where they’re seeded in the proceedings. Savvy bettors are expecting more of that this October, and finding very value on a couple of teams from the Midwest that would really upset the TV and Madison Avenue execs.
Why Not The Brewers?
If there’s an undervalued team in the National League playoff picture, it’s the Milwaukee Brewers. They have been the entire season, and it even goes back to the offseason when the biggest news was Craig Counsell leaving to take over the Cubs.
Pat Murphy, after 8 seasons as the Milwaukee bench coach, has quietly guided the Brewers to the largest lead of any MLB division. Despite that, the Brewers are sitting fifth or even sixth to win the NL according to the MLB futures odds at various outlets.
Milwaukee is second in the NL in run differential, a fact that could probably win a few bar bets. The lineup ranks in the second half of the Senior Circuit in home runs, but still ranks fourth in scoring thanks to speed that is spread throughout the batting order.
Losing Christian Yelich just after the All-Star break hurt, as evidenced by the team’s 4-6 record just after he suffered the back injury. But the Brewers have found their stride again, winning 10 of their last 14 trips to the diamond.
Pat Murphy on the @Brewers exceeding everyone’s expectations. pic.twitter.com/KhbB6FAuoT
— Jim Rome (@jimrome) August 22, 2024
Bullpen at Full-Strength Soon
The club has also overcome plenty of injuries on the mound where Murphy has needed 17 different starting pitchers and 36 pitchers total to navigate the season so far. The result has been one of the top all-around staffs in the National League.
The Brewers are near the top of the NL with a 3.69 ERA, and finally have their bullpen back to full strength with the return of Trevor Megill (lower back strain). Megill began the year as Milwaukee’s closer before Devin Williams finally made his season debut in late-July.
Milwaukee is just two games behind in the race for the top record in the NL, currently sitting third. While having a 1st-round bye has not worked out for LA, getting one of those top 2 seeds in the NL would be huge for the Brewers.
Witt & Co. on the Rise in the AL
Earning a bye in the opening round of the American League playoffs, or at least securing home-field advantage for one the Wild Card matchups, would also be huge for Kansas City. The Royals have neither right now, but they’re certainly in contention to grab one or the other.
Kansas City is presently tied with the Twins in the 5-hole of the AL bracket, and only 3-games back of the Yankees as the present No. 1 seed. Much like the Brewers over in the AL, the Royals are getting by with less power by manufacturing runs.
Consider that Kansas City has swatted 50 fewer homers than the Yankees this season, yet have scored just 25 fewer runs and sit fourth in the AL plating 4.88 runs per contest. The Royals have done an excellent job of getting batters on, getting them over, and getting them in, with much of that credit going to skipper Matt Quatraro.
Bobby Witt Jr. powers the lineup, and should provide the star power as a 30-30 threat once the playoffs arrive. There’s support in the form of Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino, plus the addition of Paul DeJong to the mix is looking like a shrewd move on the part of GM JJ Picollo.
Bobby Witt Jr now has 9.1 fWAR. As I mentioned yesterday, this ties him with George Brett for the best mark in Royals history.
He’s now 12th all time among SS in the Live Ball Era (since 1920). pic.twitter.com/Bhs8qojoEO— Joel Penfield (@jtpenfield) August 22, 2024
Pitching Staff is HR Stingy
Quatraro has been blessed with a healthy rotation up to this point of the campaign, knock on wood. Seth Lugo leads a quartet of arms that has accounted for 98 of Kansas City’s first 125 starts, and two other hurlers own 22 of the remaining 27 assignments.
Cole Ragans, Brady Singer and veteran Michael Wacha form the Big 4 with Lugo, and they provide the foundation for a staff that has denied power hitters in the AL all season. The Royals are tied with the Braves for allowing the fewest long balls in the majors (119).
As for the bullpen, did I mention the Royals have a really strong starting rotation? Kansas City relievers have compiled a 4.31 ERA, fifth-highest in the American League and ranking last among the half-dozen AL clubs that would be in the playoffs if the postseason started today.
The Royals are about the begin a tough stretch on the schedule with their next 6 series versus the Phillies, at the Indians and Astros, back home against the Twins and Indians, then off to the Bronx to face the Yankees. Now is the time to jump on the KC bandwagon.
