As usual, the fine folks setting the NCAAB odds have done an outstanding job keeping everything nice and level, and that is especially true when it comes to totals.
Through Monday, December 16th, bettors on the ‘over’ returned to the pay window 50.4% of the time, while ‘under’ players went back to pick up their winnings 49.6% of the time. Helping to keep it that even is 67 of the 80 overtime games were ‘over’ winners.
We should expect the bottom line in the totals column to remain balanced at betting outlets, but we can also expect some of the scoreboard targets to be adjusted accordingly as conferences get down to brass tacks with league fixtures.
Some of the Power 5 conferences have had a taste of league play, but for all intents and purposes, here is where they sit in totals with most of their non-conference schedules completed:
- Atlantic Coast Conference: 85-95-2 O/U/P
- Big 12: 78-73-3
- Big East: 51-65-3
- Big Ten: 89-92-3
- Southeastern Conference: 77-84-3
Badgers Making Friends With ‘Over’ Bettors
In days of old when knights were bold and the Wisconsin Badgers stressed defense…
Okay, that’s not entirely fair to current Wisconsin head coach Greg Gard, but these certainly are not the Badgers we used to watch under Bo Ryan. Just 10 short years ago, Wisconsin totals routinely ran in the 110s-120s and it was rare for a Badgers game to rise above the 130s.
So far this season, Wisconsin has had one total below 140, and the Badgers are sailing past the numbers routinely with a 10-2 O/U record at top sportsbooks. The Badgers rank 39th scoring 81.9 PPG, and there are five Big Ten schools – Penn State, Iowa, Maryland, Illinois & Michigan State – listed ahead of them in offense.
There are also four Big Ten schools – UCLA, Maryland, Minnesota & Northwestern – listed in the top 25 in scoring defense. Wisconsin’s recent 2-game dive into conference play resulted in a 1-1 O/U record, both of those contests set in the low-150s, so we should expect Badger games to level out a little.
Jayhawks ‘Under’-Whelming Opponents
Down on the other end of the totals among Power 5 schools is Kansas. Bill Self brought the Jayhawks into the week with a 1-9 O/U record, and they have just one more pre-Christmas contest before beginning what promises to be a tough Big 12 fixture.
Kansas has remained below the NCAAB odds in its last eight contests, and it’s not just because the Jayhawks are playing good defense. Self’s squad has slowed the pace in comparison to recent KU crews, and more than content with a halfcourt offense with Hunter Dickinson in the paint.
Their lone ‘over’ winner? Why, that came in the second game of the campaign when the Jayhawks beat North Carolina 92-89 in Lawrence. The Tar Heels are among the nation’s leaders in getting up and down the court, proving Kansas can beat a team intent on a faster rhythm.
SEC Hogging Rankings
There are only three unbeaten teams left among the Power 5 conferences, and all three reside in the SEC – Tennessee, Oklahoma and Florida. With seven more teams sporting just 1 loss and no team with more than 3 defeats, it’s really no surprise to find eight teams from the league in the latest top 17 of the AP poll.
But while Joe Lunardi might currently have 13 teams from the SEC in his Field of 68, the league is still lagging behind on the NCAAB futures without a team among the upper-tier favorites.
The SEC also is without a single team showing a strong trend in either direction on totals, and that could change soon when what promises to be a grueling conference slate begins.
There are five SEC clubs among the top 12 in scoring, so it will be interesting to see just how much higher some of the totals are set come January.
Duke Trending ‘Under,’ UConn Could Follow
Not sure about anyone else, but I found it strange that the Maui Invitational rolled along without much trouble for 40 years before Dan Hurley finally uncovered the event’s faults.
Hurley may have also uncovered Connecticut’s biggest fault when the 2-time defending national champ lost 3-straight last month in Hawaii.
All three UConn defeats saw ‘over’ bettors collecting winnings, and there are signs Hurley has the Huskies more focused on defense. Don’t be surprised if the Huskies make ‘under’ bettors some money in Big East play.
Jon Scheyer and Duke have already been stuffing cash into the stockings of those playing the ‘under’ with their college basketball picks. The Blue Devils entered the week on a 1-7 O/U stretch, and they’re getting it done with some of the best defense in the country.
Then again, at a time when much of the world seems upside down, we probably should have expected Wisconsin to turn offensive and Duke to go on the defensive this season.
